A dovish 10 AugFOMC statement triggered an abrupt halt to the previous USD downtrend. Whether this proves a pause for breat...]]> Wed, 11 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1450&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The brief sense of well being that followed the stress-free European bank stress tests has come to an abrupt end. Fears of double-dip recession are mounting and concerns about peripheral European c...]]> Wed, 11 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1448&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop State finances may be in a mess, but fears over municipal debt may be overdone.

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Prepared by ING Ban...]]> Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1447&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Macroeconomic divergence within the euro area has been accompanied by increasing divergence in relative risk perception on the investors’ side. The Greek crisis has resurrected the issue of sover...]]> Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1444&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Nu deflatie een groter gevaar vormt dan inflatie, zijn renteverhogingen minder waarschijnlijk geworden. Dit biedt enige stimulans voor de economische groei, die te lijden heeft van de huidige drang...]]> Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1445&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Efforts by European authorities to resuscitate investor confidence have provided temporary stability to the EUR. We do not expect this to last. However, concerns over US deflation also stand to und...]]> Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1446&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Please see attached document for ING's latest forecasts.

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Prepared by ING Bank NV (ING) for inf...]]> Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1443&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Fears of double-dip recession intensify as data takes a turn for the worse.

Despite a number of media headlines this week proclaiming double-dip fears over on the basis of a couple of d...]]> Wed, 07 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1442&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Suddenly the unthinkable is thinkable. The possibility that one or more of the members of European Monetary Union (EMU) might leave is no longer being dismissed, even by Eurozone politicians. In th...]]> Tue, 06 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1441&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We expect rates to remain on hold when the ECB meets on Thursday. The Q&A session will focus mainly on liquidity and the bank stress tests. There is a growing feeling that the ECB can do a lot but ...]]> Sun, 04 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1439&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Creeping concern over the resilience of China following weaker export PMI data means that markets are fretting over the fate of the global recovery. Rising risk aversion across asset classes could ...]]> Thu, 01 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1440&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop This week’s repayment by banks of EUR 442 billion of one-year loans to the ECB went relatively smoothly – effectively around EUR 170 billion of liquidity was drained from the banking system. Bu...]]> Thu, 01 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1438&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Markets are once more fretting about peripheral Europe, with Spanish and Portuguese debt yields rising. But with Spanish public debt low by international standards, markets seem to be taking a more...]]> Thu, 24 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1437&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The Eurozone economy is going through a critical period. While the recovery gains traction in many countries, the underlying fiscal problems are here to stay for some time. The wind of austerity wh...]]> Tue, 22 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1436&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop ING Global Forecasts - June 2010

Please see attachment.

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Prepared by ING Bank NV (ING) f...]]> Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1435&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop In his last major speech about the US economy, Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, sounded a lot more optimistic about the prospects for the US economy. To some, this might sound like a precursor for a mov...]]> Thu, 17 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1434&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Despite generally upbeat economic data markets are troubled by worries over the future of the Eurozone. The prospect of market anxiety subsiding seems distant right now. With fiscal policy set to t...]]> Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1432&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Despite generally upbeat economic data, markets are troubled by worries over the future of the Eurozone. The prospect of market anxiety subsiding seems distant right now. With fiscal policy set to ...]]> Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1433&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop There is no longer such a thing as a “peripheral” Eurozone economy, or an “out” – merely countries with “good” or “bad” risk profiles. What we are seeing is markets taking a more ...]]> Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1431&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop This week, the euro touched a new four-year low against the US dollar. The current weakness has both a psychological and a cyclical component.

The Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis and...]]> Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1430&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Current economic woes in part stem from reckless credit growth and fiscal profligacy…

…these are all things that gold standards are supposed to prevent, so should we consider a return to ...]]> Thu, 27 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1429&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop ...and is any conventional cure too unpalatable to take?

See attached presentation

Markets had been treating the UK...]]> Sun, 09 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1425&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop On a trade-weighted basis GBP has rallied close to 5% from its low in early March. Yet this primarily reflects Greece-driven EUR weakness, where the Eurozone comprises over 50% in the GBP TWI. Inve...]]> Sun, 02 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1424&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop A bland US FOMC statement at the latest meeting does not rule out a substantial change in text and market reaction at the 23 June meeting.

From there, the timeline of events leading to ...]]> Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1423&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Whilst the US is hardly in Greece’s fiscal league, CBO projections of debt-to-GDP ratios (publicly held debt) look worrying.

But they may also be taking too conservative a view on the...]]> Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1422&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop This is an edited and abridged version of a presentation prepared by ING Group Chief Economist Mark Cliffe for a meeting of Chief Economists at the BIS in Basel on April 16th. It addresses the ques...]]> Sun, 18 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1421&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - Eurozone countries have exercised all their options to bring a happy ending to the Greek fiscal crisis. Bilateral loans for up to €30bn (and €15bn from the IMF) stand ready to ease Greek fina...]]> Wed, 14 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1420&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop * GDP Forecasts

* CPI Forecasts

* Central Bank Policy Rate Forecasts

* 3M Interest Rate Forecasts

* Bond Yield Forecasts

* FX Forecasts

Please see attached...]]> Thu, 08 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1419&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop • Growing optimism on the US recovery story has been fuelling risk appetite and market expectations that policy tightening could be on the way sooner than we had been thinking.

• Ha...]]> Wed, 07 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1417&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop • Fiscal stimulus continues to support activity in many advanced economies, but its effect on growth will soon turn negative – if it has not already done so in some countries.

• T...]]> Wed, 31 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1418&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop ING's view on the major bullish and bearish currency themes

Despite the offer of a ‘last resort’ credit facility, Greece continues to pay above market spreads. The uncertainty ...]]> Wed, 31 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1415&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Despite events in Europe, the risk environment has remained relatively upbeat. However, the stronger dollar and the rise in US bond yields may start to take its toll...]]> Fri, 26 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1416&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop In recent weeks, US yields have been rising along the yield curve.

Effective Fed funds rates have been rising, and so too have longer dated maturities.

What is the explanation?

...]]> Fri, 26 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1414&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: We address Greek issues below and instead here want to focus on the sharp rise in US yields Wednesday and the lift they provided to the dollar. We are struggling to w...]]> Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1412&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

UK: Inflation heading back to 2%.

US: O Tax Credit, where art thou?

Japan: Exports Down in February, but Recovery Still Intact.

Belgium: Belgia...]]> Wed, 24 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1413&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: USD Index is performing well and headed toward its YTD high of 81.30. US data today (Feb durable goods and new home sales) are not seen likely to derail the recovery ...]]> Wed, 24 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1411&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Comments from the Fed’s Lockhart overnight (not currently an FOMC voter) highlight both the current patience within the FOMC and also the potential for a sudden cha...]]> Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1410&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: It is a quiet week for US data, with just home sales and DGOs of note. More attention will probably be paid to politics. Today we will see the financial fall-out, if...]]> Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1406&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: The dollar received a brief lift yesterday on rumours that the Fed was again set to raise the discount rate. In normal times, the discount rate is set 100bp over the ...]]> Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1408&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

UK: The markets’ Darling.

Eurozone: Tricky trade figures.

EMEA

Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan: We have published our new CIS Quarterly enti...]]> Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1409&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Despite recent disappointments, the recovery remains on track. In the coming months, it will be important to look through the increased volatility stemming from inventories and the harsh winter wea...]]> Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1407&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - The Fed again left policy unchanged this week with the “extended period” phraseology used for the ninth consecutive meeting.

- However, this phrase is causing increasing concern within ...]]> Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1405&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Voorzichtigheid troef

Door tegenvallend nieuws over de economie in Europa en de VS laten renteverhogingen waarschijnlijk langer op zich wachten. Het vooruitzicht van verdere budgettaire...]]> Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1403&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: US households continue to deleverage..

US: Trade deficit narrows in January:

EMEA

Emerging Markets: Signs of Brazilian excess in our EM...]]> Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1404&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: The S&P 500 looks set to break to a new high in its rally from the March 09 low, buoyed by generally firmer activity data and a presumption that cheap funding is here...]]> Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1401&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop If we only look at the usual indicators for the US economy, things look pretty good. But there is a raft of other, less scrutinised survey evidence out there, and some of it contradicts the more wi...]]> Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1402&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - Double-dippers are gaining the upper hand again: Greek fiscal problems, a weak fourth quarter, the levelling off of some confidence indicators and the ECB’s slow exit have all cast doubts on th...]]> Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1398&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop ING Global Economic Forecasts

* GDP Forecasts

* CPI Forecasts

* Central Bank Policy Rate Forecasts

* 3M Interest Rate Forecasts

* Bond Yield Forecasts

* FX...]]> Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1399&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Creeping Caution

Downbeat growth news in Europe and the US has pushed back expectations of higher interest rates. The prospect of more fiscal tightening and currency weakness in Europe ...]]> Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1400&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop While Greece’s austerity package and the ability to issue debt has briefly seen sovereign risk premia narrow, execution risk over its fiscal plans remain elevated. We continue to prefer USD over ...]]> Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1395&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - The IMF's Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, has ruffled feathers within the economics community with his recent paper, “Rethinking macroeconomic policy”.

- But we think he is bei...]]> Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1396&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Sovereign risk premia narrowed sharply on Wednesday as Greece delivered an austerity package welcomed by the ratings agencies. However, execution risk remains high an...]]> Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1397&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop (See below for details of this month’s teleconference call) Downbeat growth news in Europe and the US has pushed back expectations of higher interest rates. The prospect of more fiscal tightening...]]> Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1393&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: A two-speed recovery.

Canada: The great Canadian recovery continues.

Japan: Labour Market Turns the Corner.

EMEA

CEE: PMIs move...]]> Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1394&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: The resilience of the US equity market has been a key feature of 2010 as has the break-down of the firmer S&P, weaker dollar correlation. Arguably the US is turning i...]]> Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1392&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop • The recent fears over sovereign risk in the periphery, signs of economic divergence, and increase in SME bank loan rejections have likely reinforced the ECB’s caution in withdrawing its ex...]]> Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1390&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Confidence collapse gives Bernanke food for thought.

Germany: Falling into hibernation?

UK: Housing woes continue.

Japan: Exports Continue to...]]> Wed, 24 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1391&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Yesterday’s US data highlighted that the road to economic recovery is far from smooth. Consumer confidence slumped to a 10 month low while more timely weekly ABC fi...]]> Wed, 24 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1388&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Financial markets are consolidating in narrow ranges ahead of this week’s key event – tomorrow’s semi-annual testimony from Fed’s Bernanke. The highlight of a...]]> Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1389&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: A question of confidence.

Japan: BoJ Minutes Downplay Risk of Double Dip.

EMEA

Hungary: Base rate at historic low level.

Ukraine: The...]]> Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1382&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: US inflation remains non-threatening.

Canada: The good news continues…

EMEA

Emerging Markets: A review of the Credit Suisse yearb...]]> Mon, 22 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1383&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: We are probably witnessing the break-down of the relationship between stronger risk appetite and a weaker dollar. This is understandable as financial market condition...]]> Mon, 22 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1380&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Fed raises discount rate.

US: Benign inflation continues.

Japan: Political Pressure and the BoJ.

Germany: Does beggar-thy-neighbour continue...]]> Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1381&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: After the US close yesterday the Fed announced a 25bp hike to its discount rate - the rate it lends to depository institutions – to take it to 0.75% and a 50bp spre...]]> Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1386&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - Eurozone leaders opened an invisible safety net for Greece last week. They have tried to calm markets with political capital, but not as yet with measures. The jury is still out as to whether thi...]]> Thu, 18 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1378&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: A strong 1.8% rally in the S&P 500 on Tuesday has lifted risk appetite and taken some of the sting out of the recent dollar rally. With around 70% of reporting compan...]]> Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1379&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop …and is the cure worth the pain?

Please see attached file.

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Prepared by ING Bank NV (I...]]> Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1376&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Holidays in the US yesterday and Asia this week are keeping markets relatively subdued and awaiting the next major theme. In Europe, EU Finance Ministers meet today t...]]> Tue, 16 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1377&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

UK: We’ve breached.

EMEA

Russia: Industrial production fell 20% MoM in January but was up 7.8% YoY.

Ukraine: Rising risk is unlikely despite T...]]> Tue, 16 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1374&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Eurozone: EU supports Greek budget cuts

Japan: Coming GDP Data To Show Solid Growth in Q4.

EMEA

Poland: Waiting for the turning point in M3...]]> Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1375&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: USD Index continues to trade close to the important 80 level, although underperformance of EU16 vs. US assets offers upside risk. Yesterday the US-EU16 10Y Treasury-B...]]> Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1372&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Bernanke elucidates on exit strategy.

UK: Bank of England treads a very cautious path.

Italy: Checking the ground.

EMEA

Ukraine...]]> Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1373&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Global investor sentiment is mixed, helping to keep USD Index within a range. Events regarding Greece’s budgetary situation still dominate (see pg 2), but news from...]]> Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1370&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: The two US manufacturing economies.

Japan: Rebound in Machinery Orders. Germany: At least one reliable source of growth.

EMEA

Ukraine: ...]]> Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1371&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: A much awaited appearance by Fed Chairman Bernanke today to outline the Fed’s unwinding of its emergency programmes has been cancelled due to bad weather. However, ...]]> Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1385&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - Economists’ phones have started to ring once more as complacency over the recovery has given way to anxiety.

- Fear gauges are up again, and newspapers are filled once more with stories o...]]> Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1369&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop US growth has recovered, and there is a positive (though not stellar) outlook for 2010. But beyond then, as fiscal stimuli wane, interest rates rise, and politics interfere, the outlook remains fai...]]> Tue, 09 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1368&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: FX markets found some temporary stability yesterday, largely trading within previous ranges. However, a day of little newsflow did little to dispel concern in other a...]]> Tue, 09 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1361&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Obama's plans to limit the US banking sector, concern over Greek efforts to reign in their budget deficit, and anxiety over Chinese efforts to curb growth threaten the burst of enthusiasm abou...]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1362&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The labour market should stabilise soon, but the risk of a jobless recovery remains

Private consumption needs to pick up to ensure a self-sustainable recovery. A stabilisation of the la...]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1363&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - GDP Forecasts

- CPI Forecasts

- Central Bank Policy Rate Forecasts

- 3M Interest Rate Forecasts

- Bond Yield Forecasts

- FX Forecasts

P...]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1364&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Mixed news on labour.

Japan: Japan Earns Less on Investments; Economy Watchers Picks Up.

Canada: Canadian recovery gaining traction.

Switzer...]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1365&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Following a highly volatile last week, in which risk-positive investments were hard hit, a modicum of stability is a first target. As expected, a G7 gathering over th...]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1366&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Concern over Greece’s finances has demanded an extra risk premium in EUR. Contagion into other asset markets remains a risk, but should be contained. We revise our EUR/USD profile lower, awaiting...]]> Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1358&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Obama’s plans to limit the US banking sector, concern over Greek efforts to reign in their budget deficit, and anxiety over Chinese efforts to curb growth threaten the burst of enthusiasm about g...]]> Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1359&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Global: Change to key forcasts!

UK: BoE – done its job?

EMEA

Czech Republic: CNB to keep rates on hold for a while.

Romania: NBR c...]]> Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1360&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: The dollar continues to nudge higher as the US activity data continues its modest improvement. Our preference is for a higher dollar this year, but one of the risks i...]]> Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1384&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Concern over Greece’s finances has demanded an extra risk premium in EUR. Contagion into other asset markets remains a risk, but should be contained. We revise our EUR/USD profile lower, awaiting...]]> Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1387&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Obama’s plans to limit the US banking sector, concern over Greek efforts to reign in their budget deficit, and anxiety over Chinese efforts to curb growth threaten the burst of enthusiasm about g...]]> Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1356&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Despite the many global challenges, risk appetite seems to be holding up relatively well – judging by the recoveries in global equity and commodity markets. Even S&...]]> Wed, 03 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1357&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Global: Monthly economics update call.

Eurozone: ECB preview – No place for thrill-seekers.

Eurozone: Disinflationary winds.

EMEA

US: Lending standards in the US Ease.

US: Mfg ISM surges – but optimism is overstated.

US: Walking the tightrope.

UK: Turning Greek?

U...]]> Tue, 02 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1355&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Although US data this year has been on the softer side, the Goldilocks phase of decent activity data, accompanied by low inflation and minimal fears of near-term Fed ...]]> Tue, 02 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1349&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Savings ratio to fall back towards zero as borrowing bottoms out.

The rebound in UK household savings is set to stall. Borrowing is bottoming out after the abrupt ending of a 16 year bi...]]> Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1350&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: GDP bounce unlikely to last.

Canada: A good GDP day for the Americas.

EMEA

Emerging Markets: Asian exports still doing well.

Ukr...]]> Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1353&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop This week's ECB's meeting on Thursday will bring more of the same:

no change to rates, no change to the ECB's take on the economy.

Frankfurt will again be no place for th...]]> Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1352&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: It will again prove a busy week for financial markets, with focus on Greece, US activity data and China. On Greece, the EU will on Wednesday announce further measures...]]> Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1346&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: It looks like it will be a busy day for financial markets, which include the Q4 US GDP release and no doubt many rumours about potential week-end bail-outs for

US: Can the bounce last?

Eurozone: Recovery still intact.

Germany: Labour market remains strong.

Japan: Jobless Rate Falls Again.

...]]> Fri, 29 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1348&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: FOMC statement – minor tweaks only – but some dissent from Hoenig.

Japan: Weak Retail Sales Suggest Stimulus is Fading.

Germany: German inflat...]]> Thu, 28 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1344&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Feet up time for the FOMC.

Japan: S&P Places Japan’s AA Rating on negative outlook.

UK: Out of recession - just.

Germany: Still going str...]]> Wed, 27 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1345&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Expectations from the FOMC today are at a minimum (see pg 2). The dataflow alone argues for a softer statement but we doubt the Fed will oblige, given the prospect of...]]> Wed, 27 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1341&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Foreigners Continue to Cut Japan Exposure.

UK: Retail disappointment highlights recovery risks.

Eurozone: Belgian Business confidence improved ...]]> Mon, 25 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1342&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Financial markets face a great deal of uncertainty over coming weeks and it is no surprise to see investors scaling down on some of their positions. Obama’s plan to...]]> Mon, 25 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1343&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - President Obama’s bank reform plans pose a major political challenge to the outlook. He now wants to limit both the size and scope of banks. This Q&A note provides a first, inevitably tentative...]]> Mon, 25 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1339&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

UK: Spending surge.

Canada: Monetary Policy Report is released.

EMEA

Ukraine: A ban on interest rate hikes on loans may discourage long-te...]]> Fri, 22 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1340&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Populist measures announced from President Obama yesterday to limit risk taking and ban proprietary trading at US banks has weighed heavily on the risk environment. J...]]> Fri, 22 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1336&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: housing data mixed, producer prices show little inflationary pressure.

UK: Labour data more mixed than it seems.

Canada: December CPI figures take...]]> Thu, 21 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1337&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: A slightly more cautious risk environment has taken USD Index to its best level since Aug 2009. This is in part due to a continuing trend of moderately softer US data...]]> Thu, 21 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1338&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: The dollar is doing marginally better across the board, helped by problems in Europe and what now seems to be a positive correlation between US equities and the dolla...]]> Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1333&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: USD Index has established a degree of stability around 77.0 this week and looks in need of fresh impetus. There is a risk that this does not come until the FOMC next ...]]> Fri, 15 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1334&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Weak retail sales suggests a soft CPI figure.

Eurozone: ECB press conference: Déjà vu all over again.

EMEA

Emerging Markets: Still r...]]> Fri, 15 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1330&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Fed rhetoric remains mixed, providing little new clarity on Fed hike timing - probably the most crucial issue for 2010. The Beige Book reported modestly improving act...]]> Thu, 14 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1331&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Retail sales – Third consecutive strong figure on its way.

Japan: Sharp Downturn in Machinery Orders.

Italy: Slow train running.

EM...]]> Thu, 14 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1328&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: The ripple of profit-taking in activity trades following China’s reserve requirement hike yesterday will most definitely be a sign of things to come in 2010. Now th...]]> Wed, 13 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1329&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: US trade deficit hits 10-month high

Eurozone: ECB preview – Unex(c)iting start to the new year.

EMEA

Emerging Markets: Chinese reserve requ...]]> Wed, 13 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1325&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Banks Languish, while exporters revel in global rebound.

UK: Is the house price rally stalling?

EMEA

Ukraine: Lack of 2010 budget th...]]> Tue, 12 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1326&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: The early part of this week has seen 2009’s trend of healthy risk sentiment weighing on USD Index back to the fore. This is evidenced by the drop in the VIX Index o...]]> Tue, 12 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1319&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We suspect the cyclical dollar rally has already started. Dollar gains should primarily come against the EUR and JPY, especially when the Fed starts to remove surplus liquidity starting in 2Q. EM s...]]> Mon, 11 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1321&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Will the real labour market data please stand up?

Canada: Canada’s unemployment rate remains 8.5% in December.

EMEA

Emerging Mar...]]> Mon, 11 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1322&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop * GDP Forecasts

* CPI Forecasts

* Central Bank Policy Rate Forecasts

* 3M Interest Rate Forecasts

* Bond Yield Forecasts

* FX Forecasts

Please see attached...]]> Mon, 11 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1323&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Risk appetite looks to be strong during the early part of the week as investors are re-assured that the Fed won’t be raising rates too quickly and that the Asia...]]> Mon, 11 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1324&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop After all has been said and done, this week’s ECB should be anything but exciting. The roadmap to the exit has been laid out but it will take some time before the exit becomes tangible. Rate hike...]]> Mon, 11 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1320&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Last clues before payrolls.

Japan: Kan Desires a Weaker Yen.

Eurozone: Mood better, spending not.

EMEA

Romania: The unempl...]]> Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1317&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Global: Monthly economics update call.

US: Misleading indicators.

Japan: Naoto Kan is new Finance Minister.

UK: Looking to the future.

USD: Apart from the sea of green on global equity boards, the stand-out over the last 24 hours is the 20 bp rise in ten year Treasury yields and the steepest 2-10 year cur...]]> Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1316&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Happy holidays! Not much going on this week, so we share 10 lessons we hope will put us in good stead for next year

Germany: Cooling off. German consumer ...]]> Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1312&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop As we enter 2010, the global recovery looks relatively secure. Investors are already positioned for this, yet some currencies can advance further and others play-catch up. We identify 10 relative v...]]> Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1313&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

UK: Mixed news on consumer spending.

EMEA

Turkey: CBT leaves rates unchanged at 6.5%.

Poland: Forgetting the crisis

Latin Amer...]]> Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1314&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Despite worrying international developments this month in Dubai and Greece, we find these alone hard to justify the USD rally. To date this month USD Index has gained...]]> Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1310&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Fed continues to toy with markets.

UK: More signs of growth.

EMEA

Turkey: CBT rate decision today at 17:00 GMT.

Turkey: Unemplo...]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1311&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Despite acknowledging the improvement in the labour market, the Fed did little to alter its monetary policy stance in last night’s FOMC statement and continued its ...]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1308&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Over the last few days the dollar has enjoyed a twin uplift from better US activity data, potentially culminating in a more confident FOMC statement tonight and also ...]]> Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1309&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Timing is everything.

Greece: The Greek government’s new package faces suspended judgement.

UK: Inflation up, but medium-term threat is lim...]]> Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1305&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: For a change the dollar is rallying for the right reasons in that US data has been strong enough to start to building expectations of credible Fed tightening. In part...]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1306&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - GDP Forecasts

- CPI Forecasts

- Policy Rates Forecasts

- 3M Interest Rate Forecasts

- Bond Yield Forecasts

- FX Forecasts

Please see at...]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1307&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Authorities are gently applying the brakes to the dollar decline. Be it the Fed now ‘monitoring closely’ the dollar, emergency easing in Japan or capital controls in EM, the free ride of a weak...]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1303&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: US equity markets stabilised yesterday, helping to prevent USD Index from pushing any higher. In terms of growth prospects and the risk backdrop for 2010, overnight n...]]> Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1304&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

UK: Standing pat.

UK: PBR – holding fire.

Germany: Relying on a good old friend.

Japan: Machinery Orders – Still Recovering, but Down...]]> Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1301&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: In what has become a familiar pattern this year, US yields have failed to hold onto their NFP-inspired gains, with the market defaulting to the view that the Fed is i...]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1302&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Government Announces Stimulus Package.

UK: How do they do that?

Canada: Bank of Canada rate decision later today.

EMEA

Ukrai...]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1298&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Friday saw the dollar rallying for the right reasons, where jobs data was strong enough to substantially bring forward Fed tightening expectations and short dated ...]]> Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1299&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Amazing turnaround in the US labour market.

Canada: Canadian Unemployment rate falls to 8.5% in November… Ivey PMI falls to 55.9 in November down from ...]]> Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1300&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We are very pleased to present the first English version of the yearly Dutch Industry Outlook. ING monitors the fortunes of Dutch industry very closely. The industrial sector is and will remain imp...]]> Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1295&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Payrolls consensus, still too strong?

Eurozone: The gentle exit has begun.

EMEA

Russia: PM Putin blames the US for Russia’s slow prog...]]> Fri, 04 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1296&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Fed Chairman Bernanke faced tough questioning at his confirmation hearing for a second term yesterday, but we fully expect him to retain his position for a further four yea...]]> Fri, 04 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1297&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The membership of the FOMC voting committee undergoes its usual rotation at the first meeting of 2010 (27 January).

Out goes one of the arch hawks – Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker.

B...]]> Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1292&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Global sentiment has improved substantially from late last week, with equity markets around the world registering strong gains Tuesday and isolating events in Dubai. ...]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1294&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Mfg ISM slips, pending home sales rise.

Eurozone: ECB preview – Reloading the matrix.

Japan: Time to rethink exchange controls?

Germany: ...]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1290&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

US: Mfg ISM – things are looking up.

Japan: BoJ Cracks Under Government Pressure.

UK: Going for growth.

Canada: Canada creeps out of recessio...]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1291&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: So far events in Dubai have yet to have a lasting impact on other financial markets and fortunately activity data around the world has been reasonably good – includ...]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1286&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Industrial Production – Soft Growth in October.

UK: Lacklustre lending.

Eurozone: Revival of animal spirits?

Canada: Canada’s expand...]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1288&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: Global financial markets have recovered overnight on a re-appraisal of Dubai’s impact on the global recovery. In reality, the news out of the UAE has not been that impre...]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1285&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

FX: USD/JPY Intervention. It’s the dollar’s the problem

Japan: How Real in the Reduction in Unemployment Rate?

UK: Retail rebounding… for now. Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1293&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - The last week has delivered the latest set of FOMC minutes, along with the Fed’s own forecasts for the major US macroeconomic variables

- Some of the figures make curious reading – inde...]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1283&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Exports Still on Recovery Track.

US: Taking it on the chin.

Germany: Powering ahead.

Belgium: Confidence improvement.

EMEA Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1284&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: As alluded to in Bernanke’s 16 Nov speech, discussion of USD weakness figured at the FOMC’s 4 Nov meeting. Minutes released last night said that at some point ver...]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1281&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets/Global

US: We're from the government and we're here to help.

Eurozone: Recovery continues apace.

Canada: Retail Sales leap in September… EMEA

USD: A record week for US Treasury issuance got off to a decent start yesterday, with indirect bidders (or foreign central banks) making up 44% of bids for a US$44bn 2Y au...]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1279&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Contents

Developed Markets/Global:

UK: The debt burden.

Japan: Talking Up Deflation.

EMEA

Russia: October macroeconomic data paint a less gloomy picture....]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1280&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Currency view

USD: US Thanksgiving on Thursday puts in place a holiday-shortened week. After a significant rally in many asset classes in recent months, helping many to achieve annual b...]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1275&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Developed Markets / Global

UK: Positive GDP on its way.

France: Further public spending in sight for 2010.

EMEA

Turkey: CBT cuts rates by 25bp with a less dovish acc...]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1276&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Capital Controls: Necessary evil?

- But whilst the narrow money stock has risen, broad money has not, a...]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1278&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The developed economies’ recovery, while sustained, will leave the level of output between 4-6% below the previous trend. Huge uncertainty pervades how buoyant asset prices can be reconciled with...]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1287&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Loose Fed policy looks here to stay, at least for the next six months, suggesting the orderly dollar decline continues.

Pressure is building for Asian FX appreciation and China could well del...]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1274&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Having dominated the headlines in 2007 and 2008, Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have been more introspective in 2009, looking to help beleaguered domestic economies.

Yet the resurgence of glob...]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1273&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop • In our view, the timing and pace of the ECB’s exit from its current policy stance will largely depend on the future evolution of bank credit growth.

• Indeed, credit growth is the con...]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1272&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The media are beginning to get twitchy about Fed policy in advance of next week’s FOMC meeting…

…though bond markets remain relatively sanguine, as we believe they should be.

Su...]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1271&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Near-term growth risks as stimulus packages fade. As some fiscal policy measures fade, the momentum of economic improvement has faltered in some economies. This has also been reflected in a renewed...]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1270&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We have substantially downgraded our USD forecasts this month. In addition to zero rates, QE and budget deficits, the USD is now also weighed by a G-20 agreement that the world needs to re-balanc...]]> Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1269&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop There is a new kid on the block. The strong euro exchange rate has joined a worsening labour market and credit crunch issues as the most prominent impediments to a Eurozone recovery.

Th...]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1268&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The Netherlands is on the verge of emerging from the recession. It owes the recovery mainly to global trade.

The extent of the economic recovery in the Netherlands will depend mainly on the f...]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1267&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop G-7 meetings have in the past been used as a forum to halt or reverse unwelcome currency trends…

…but the G-7 is no longer the meeting it once was, and has lost ground to the G-20.

...]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1266&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Despite more encouraging US data, the dollar remains under pressure. Seasonals are against the dollar into 4Q, yet with exit strategies largely priced out and the market already long risk, we doubt...]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1264&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Further signs of economic recovery have kept equity markets on an optimistic footing, but there are continued divergences between markets.

Bond markets continue to show no signs of selling o...]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1265&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Central banks and governments tread carefully.

Despite an upturn in economic activity, central banks and governments are in no rush to reverse their stimulus measures. They are rightly ...]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1263&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - Recent market moves have highlighted a gulf of opinion between equity and fixed income investors.

- Looking at a wider array of markets, it is clear that there is no clear consensus about t...]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1261&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Recent data flow has stirred expectations about a much better-than-expected recovery of the Eurozone economy. Nevertheless, we believe it is far too early to give the all-clear. The economy is stil...]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1262&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - Improvements in US industrial production and inventories are all well and good, but given that consumer spending accounts for 70% f US GDP we need to see improvements here before we can talk abou...]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1256&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop US 10Y Treasury yields have moved up by almost 50bp from their recent trough...

...but whilst the equity market surge will have played a role in this...

...the gains are close to what w...]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1257&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop To assess which themes will impact the government bond market over the next 12 months, we decomposed nominal bond yields into a real yield and an inflation component, and also looked at the steepne...]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1258&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The dollar has been showing more resilience to the rally in risk assets. We believe this to be part of the bottoming process. Dollar stability is the best to be hoped for into year end, before we e...]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1255&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Although the picture varies across regions, data continue to improve. Asia looks most likely to deliver a “V”-shaped recovery, but all regions are making steps in the right direction.

• According to our rul...]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1249&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We expect the NBR will deliver a 50bp rate cut to 9% and see risks for a 75-100bp cut given prospects for disinflation and a sharper contraction. The impact on the market should be minimal as a 50b...]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1250&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We are concerned about economic prospects for 2010 even though 2009 is likely to post a sharp contraction. The ability of households to consume is key in this regard and the data so far is not look...]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1251&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The central bank is trying to control too many objectives, while its instruments are limited. Such a strategy could eventually backfire. The NBR cannot cut the key rate too much as it increases RON...]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1253&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop • Swine flu seems to be taking off…that is to say, the numbers of cases are spreading rapidly…

• …begging the question of what sort of economic or market distortions this might have...]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1260&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The central bank governor has been quoted in the local press with a comment that seems dovish. However, given the limited length of the quote, it is hard to judge if this is a hint regarding future...]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1252&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop • With recovery in sight, markets are chomping at the bit to price in rate hikes.

• Though they typically jump the gun, most developed market economies are expected to have raised rates f...]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1247&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Economic recovery will be accompanied by higher unemployment, further loss of wealth and dismaying government finances. Jobs are disappearing at a rapid pace, particularly in the industrial sector....]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1248&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Risk assets enter 3Q09 on a consolidative tone, with activity data yet to fully match improved confidence. We believe investors will be a little more cautious this quarter and that fears of an exod...]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1244&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The idea that high inflation is inevitable in the face of zero interest rates, quantitative easing and soaring budget deficits is unjustified, at least while the monetary transmission channels rema...]]> Tue, 16 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1245&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We updated our EUR/RON view and still see a high risk of the RON weakening past 4.5/EUR towards 4.7/EUR or even higher. This may happen as we approach year-end and/or early 2010. Rates should move ...]]> Tue, 16 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1246&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The return of the 'inflation premium' and ongoing discussion of an alternative reserve currency have weighed on both US Treasuries and the dollar. Yet stagnant Eurozone growth stands to t...]]> Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1243&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The contraction in economic activity is prone to amplification vs our previous forecast. We expect GDP growth to enter positive territory only in 3Q10. Inflation is likely to be somewhat lower than...]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1242&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop FT columnist Martin Wolf has welcomed the recent rise in bond yields as suggesting:

- An end to fears of deflation

- Normalisation after a panic.

He goes on to argue that bo...]]> Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1240&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Further key rate cuts along with liquidity injections for extended tenors look likely but easing reserve requirements would probably have a more sizeable impact on credit activity as it would free ...]]> Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1236&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The US data flow will be key for market direction this week with the ISM purchasing managers’ indices likely setting the tone. These have bounced sharply in recent months with a strong turnaround...]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1237&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop • Next week, the ECB will unveil the details of its EUR 60 billion covered bond purchase plan. Since the ECB will be keen to portray the purchase programme as a eurozone-wide initiativ...]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1239&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The cost of RON protection was elevated interest rates that negatively impacted economic activity. After March rates started falling and, assuming exchange rate flexibility, the economy should reco...]]> Thu, 21 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1241&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop - Amid an unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, some fear a sustained bear market in US Treasuries.

- Here, we examine the eight major bear markets of the past 50 years to provide some...]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1238&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop We expect the NBR to cut the key rate by an additional cumulative 75bp this year and to reach the low by early August. There is risk for more aggressive easing, but we see 8% as a floor. Market rat...]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1235&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Weak bounces in survey and activity data have encouraged sidelined investors to chase risk once again. Yet this risk rally looks a little premature, warning that outflows from the safety of the dol...]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1233&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop US Treasury yields have risen steeply since the 2.50% rate reached following the 17 March announcement of outright Treasury purchases by the Fed.

But it would be a hasty conclusion to judge t...]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1234&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Scale of recovery is in doubt, despite the market bounce.

While a V-shaped recovery is replacing depression in financial market thinking, the global economy’s path remains highly unce...]]> Wed, 13 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1232&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop US Treasury yields have risen steeply since the 2.50% rate reached following the 17 March announcement of outright Treasury purchases by the Fed.

But it would be a hasty conclusion to judge t...]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1227&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The strengthening trend has turned and further weakness could be on the cards for the RON. This has triggered a modest jump in interest rates but more firming could take place if depreciation press...]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1226&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The strengthening trend has turned and further weakness could be on the cards for the RON. This has triggered a modest jump in interest rates but more firming could take place if depreciation press...]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1225&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The strengthening trend of the RON is facing strong headwinds. If it comes under sizeable weakening pressure, interest rates could tick higher, coming off the bottom touched in the past weeks.spons...]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1224&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The IMF/EU package positively impacted the local market, but the positive impact on the RON should be short-lived. Very likely, pressure on higher interest rates is likely to re-emerge once interna...]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 23:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1218&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Forecasts continue to be sliced.

Expectations for 2009 growth across the G-7 continue to fall, as they have done now for over a year. This process is far from complete, but 2010 seems t...]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1222&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop With interest rates in the G-7 converging on zero, traditional tools for analysing central banks’ stance cease to work…

Alternatives do exist – replacing interest rate comparisons with ...]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1219&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Taking into account authorities' statements, an IMF/EU/WB/EIB package could be announced this week with a short-term positive impact on the RON. However, GDP for 4Q08 is the first sign that ou...]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1220&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The latest chapter of the crisis has engulfed Eastern Europe, weighing on European banks that have heavy exposure in the region. Independent EUR weakness looks appropriate, while liquidity consider...]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1217&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Next week’s ECB policy decision should be a no-brainer. Interest rates are expected to be cut by at least 50bp. The recent run of bleak economic data and the fresh wave of financial market turmoi...]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1216&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Markets are wavering between their fears over deflation, and their concern over increased bond issuance in the US.

From a recent low of 2.07% on the 10Y US Treasury, 10Y yields have been hove...]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1215&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The new Romanian budget law was submitted for debate in Parliament and since we do not expect any significant changes, we revised our November forecast on budget execution to show a deficit of 7.3%...]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1213&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop European tigers have become laggards and the significant widening of government bond yield spreads has encouraged talks about a Eurozone break-up and sovereign default.

As concerns grow for a sharper global slowdown and more severe financial stress, particula...]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1211&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The calamitous fall in financial markets and in economic activity is forcing evermore aggressive and unconventional responses from the policymakers.

A crucial issue for investors is when and ...]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1212&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop As governments see the scale of the slump, and central banks run out of room to cut rates, fiscal responses are being intensified.

We see this as too late to stop G3 output plunging 3% this y...]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1210&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop This week's key event in Romania is Wednesday's rate-setting meeting. After the 6 January policy-meeting, the deterioration of the macroeconomic picture has become clear given the por bud...]]> Tue, 03 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1208&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Contrary to the prevailing view, the ECB has actually already engaged in some form of quantitative easing, ballooning its balance sheet. In absolute terms, the ECB's balance sheet is even bigg...]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1207&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Last week started on a bleak note as the European Commission released its Interim Forecast report downgrading its growth forecast for Romania in 2009 from 4.7% to 1.75% and increasing the 2009 publ...]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1205&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop UK: Recession confirmed. UK GDP has contracted for two consecutive quarters.

Canada: Inflation data reflects a bleak situation in Canada.

Emerging Markets: The Financial Times - &apos...]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1206&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop President Obama's honeymoon period may not last long unless his team's long-awaited fiscal package quickly gains traction.

Unemployment is rising sharply, activity is plunging and i...]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1204&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop If you believe some of the stories in the financial press (and other naysayers), official efforts to restore growth and financial health will result in surging inflation...

...and result in a...]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1200&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Co-ordinated global economic weakness is unavoidable in 2009. But with inflation plunging, policy-makers are adopting unprecedented measures. The US is leading the way, but others are being forced ...]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1201&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Having been unreservedly downbeat during all of 2008 (and 2007, 2006), we start this year trying to look on the bright side.

This is not easy. The macroeconomic environment remains very bad, ...]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1202&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Growth in the rest of the world is starting to converge on recessionary US levels and make the dollar look less unattractive. We look for investors to reward pro-growth strategies this year, sugges...]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1203&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The deepening recession in developed economies should put more pressure on EM currencies, particularly the RON given recession prospects here as well and a budget gap widening to more than 5% of GD...]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1195&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Deepening recession and deflation fears prompt unorthodox responses.

The unprecedented nature of the crisis has caught out forecasters and policymakers alike. Led by the US, past moneta...]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1196&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Next week's expected cut in the fed funds rate target will do little to support the economy.

The FOMC statement accompanying the rate decision will be far more important, as it may...]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1194&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The Romanian currency traded at 3.96/EUR and may weaken further as the international market mood remains gloomy and liquidity is scarce, leaving corporate flows to induce a softening trend. The rec...]]> Thu, 18 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1193&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop The assessment of business conditions in the Tankan survey across all business sectors deteriorated rapidly between September and December.

Read the full re...]]> Mon, 01 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.ing-wholesalebanking.com/pitstop/index.php?client_id=1&article_id=1189&category=research http://www.ingwholesalebanking.com/pitstop Looking back at recent ECB policymaking, we can add a new dimension to central banking: the circus act of central banking.