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Daily FX Strategy/BIS Triennial survey: G-10 drives FX volume surge

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Global equity markets put in a resilient performance Wednesday, buoyed by strong Q2 GDP readings in many parts of the world outside of the US. That suggests if exchan...

US mfg ISM points to growth, but payrolls confusion

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The August reading for the manufacturing ISM has provided a positive surprise. The headline index stands at 61.5 versus 57.5 in July where as the consensus view was for it to fall to 52.8 based on ...

Prophet 2 September 2010

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Caution on ISM

Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing index provided a positive growth surprise, but with new orders continuing to fall we remain cautious on its s...

Japan: That Man Ozawa Again

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The DPJ leadership contest (vote due Sep 14) took an interesting turn with challenger Ichiro Ozawa doing what he does best – taking the populist route– by backing a major expansion in fiscal ou...

EU16 shows more balanced growth in Q2

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The EU16’s second quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 1% quarter-on-quarter, after an upwardly revised 0.3% in Q1. The important new information was to be found in the composition. Net exports co...

Daily FX Strategy/Riksbank preview: Template for the Fed?

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The dollar remains relatively subdued, with the jury still out on whether the Fed needs to pull the trigger and ease policy further. As the minutes to the August 10th...

German retail sales drop in July

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Still sluggish spending. July retail sales did not bring further evidence of a private consumption upswing. Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, retail sales dropped by 0.3% MoM (+0.8% YoY)....

Swiss PMI

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In Switzerland, the Purchasing Manager Index, one of the main leading economic indicators, showed a strong correction in August, falling from 66 to 61.4, its lowest level since February. It has to ...

UK manufacturing PMI disappoints

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After a strong run of UK data we are now seeing weaker figures with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 54.3 in August from 56.9 (downwardly revised from the previous 57.3 reading from July). The con...

Daily Prophet (with EMEA) for 1 September, 2010

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: stagnation fears grow. A further decline in the ISM will intensify fears of a stalling recovery with bond bulls targeting a 2% 10Y Treasury yield.

Eurozone:...

Prophet: 31 August 2010

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Bernanke speech: Lots of useless tools With few useful policy tools at his disposal, the neutral to market positive reaction Bernanke received on Friday was a goo...

Daily FX Strategy/Real US yields tumble: CAD, MXN to suffer (ING Research Distribution)

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: It is a big week for economic data/policy-setting meetings and with volumes gradually returning to more normal levels, non-consensus outcomes can potentially shake th...

German unemployment unchanged in August

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Impressive performance continues. German unemployment decreased slightly by a non-seasonally adjusted 3,700 in August. Officially, 3.188 million Germans are unemployed. In seasonally-adjusted terms...

Eurozone inflation eases to 1.6%, unemployment flat

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures are a reminder of the continuing lack of underlying inflation pressure in the region.

The decline in headline inflation, from 1.7%...

US home prices increase, for now

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Case-Shiller 20-City home price index increased 0.3%MoM in June (sa), slightly above consensus. The YoY-change fell to 4.2% (from 4.6%). After last week’s devastating sales numbers, some posi...

Canadian economy slows in Q2

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Canada’s economy grew at a 2.0% annualised growth in 2Q11 (vs consensus 2.5%). Last quarter’s record growth of 6.1% was also downgraded to 5.8%.

The slowest quarterly gain in five ...

Canadian economy slows in Q2

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Canada’s economy grew at a 2.0% annualised growth in 2Q11 (vs consensus 2.5%). Last quarter’s record growth of 6.1% was also downgraded to 5.8%.

The slowest quarterly gain in five ...

US home prices increase, for now

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Eurozone sentiment surprises again

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone good news parade shows no sign of letting up yet. The European Commission just reported that its “economic sentiment” index rose from a revised 101.1 in July to 101.8, above the co...

UK GDP revised higher to 1.2%QoQ

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK 2Q10 GDP has been revised higher to 1.2%QoQ from 1.1%, as we suspected given the much improved construction numbers. This time we also get the expenditure breakdown, but here the news is perhaps...

Swiss main economic indicator falls but remains strong

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The main Swiss economic barometer, the Kof Index, moderated slightly in August, though at a still high level. The headline index fell from 2.23 to 2.18 (the second consecutive fall). The Kof has im...

Daily Prophet 27 August 2010

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: QE or not QE?

QE right now would be redundant – time to think about negative interest rates, or filling state budget shortfalls.

US: 2Q10 GDP ...

US 2Q10 GDP revised to 1.6% from 2.4%

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

No great surprises that 2Q10 US GDP came in much weaker than the previous release of 2.4%. But at a 1.6% annualised rate, it was slightly better than the consensus of 1.4%. On the positive side, pe...

Bernanke Jackson Hole Speech - lots of useless tools

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, managed to achieve a fairly neutral to positive market reaction to his Jackson Hole speech, which is not a bad result, considering his downbeat assessment of the economy...

Daily FX Strategy/M&A rebound - don\'t rely on it...

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The main event of the week has arrived today in the form of Bernanke’s 14gmt Jackson Hole speech entitled; ‘The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve’s Polic...

German consumer confidence increases

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Summer mood continues. German consumer confidence is expected to increase next month, according to today's GfK indicator for September. The GfK index for September increased to 4.1, from 4.0 i...

Daily Prophet - 26 August 2010

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: The investment recovery is ending

Another reason to suspect that growth will evaporate, and bond yields will re-test their previous lows.

US: Weakness...

Daily FX Strategy - EUR/CHF: SNB backed into corner. Target 1.25

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

USD: Despite very soft durable goods and housing data from the US yesterday, US equities staged a strong intraday recovery to finish flat on the day. The ongoing corporate earnings season provides ...

Eurozone credit data warrant caution about recovery

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The stock of broad money (M3) in the Eurozone rose by just 0.2% in the 12 months to July, slightly below the 0.3% consensus, and consistent with the view that Eurozone inflation pressures are likel...

US: QE or not QE?

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

QE right now would be redundant – time to think about negative interest rates, or filling state budget shortfalls In advance of Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Fed watchers are increa...

Daily Prophet 25 - August 2010

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Bernanke to clarify Fed rift?

Ben Bernanke speaks at the Jackson Hole summit amidst reports of a huge rift at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Can ...

German Ifo increases in August

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Unstoppable? While many market participants are currently debating the chances of a double dip and a global slowdown, German businesses are still gaining confidence. In August, the headline Ifo ind...

US Durable goods orders weak

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The latest durable goods orders data (July survey) throw more doubt on the resilience of the US recovery, with the headline growth rate of only 0.3% helped by a whopping 75.9% gain in non-defence a...

US new home sales fall to record low

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After yesterday’s collapse in existing home sales, today brings another grim report on US housing. New home sales fell 12.4%MoM to 276k in July, a new record low since data collection began in 19...

German Q2 growth confirmed

Mon, 23 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Is this already a self-sustained recovery? Today’s second estimate of the German statistical office confirmed what we already knew: the German economy recorded its best growth quarter since reuni...

Daily Prophet 24 August 2010

Mon, 23 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US: Existing home sales set to plummet

Significant undershoot of consensus likely.

Eurozone: How low can yields go?

Belgium: Business confidence set to decrease in Aug...

Friday\'s Jackson Hole - At stake, Fed\'s credibility

Mon, 23 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

At stake on Friday and Saturday, when the Jackson Hole summit is hosted and Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke speaks about the economic outlook and monetary policy, is the very reputation of the FOM...

US existing home sales in free-fall

Mon, 23 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

July existing home sales took a headlong plunge, falling by 27.2% on the month to the lowest level in over 15 years. These are truly dismal numbers, adding to the recent flurry of data suggesting t...

French government less upbeat on growth for next year

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The French government revised its GDP forecast for 2011 downwards to 2% (previously 2.5%). New numbers illustrate growing concerns about the strength of the recovery in the second largest eco...

Daily Prophet - 23 August 2010

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Canada: CPI no threat to rates

Temporary effects of the HST will not affect the Bank of Canada’s outlook for inflation.

France: Government l...

Daily FX Strategy/INR see-saws on mixed cues

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view 24h call

USD: On Friday the USD rose to its best level for a month. For choice we look for USD Index to rise further this week given a challenging risk environment, ba...

Eurozone composite PMI slips in August

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The eurozone’s economic recovery is slowing down, but so far retains significant forward momentum. That is the message from today’s flash Eurozone PMI data for August.

The co...

EA16 consumer confidence rises to highest since Jan-08

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

August’s increase in the “flash” Eurozone consumer confidence indicator raises hopes that stronger domestic demand may cushion the impact of slower export growth. The increase, from -14...

Daily FX Strategy - Yen intervention - get real (effective JPY)

Wed, 18 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

USD: In yesterday’s daily we highlighted a newly released Aaa Sovereign Monitor from Moody’s. It stated that the ‘US’s debt metrics are among the most challenged of the major Aaa coun...

Daily Prophet 19 August 2010

Wed, 18 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK: Looking for improvement

So far government borrowing is merely on track to meet last year’s outturn rather than show any significant improvement.

EMEA

South Afric...

Financial Markets Research - Global Economic Calendar

Wed, 18 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The past few months of data have seen Europe outperform the US in terms of growth. The Europe detractors argue that the growth is export generated and with the US showing signs of slowing and Asia ...

The Daily Prophet 18 August 2010

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Credit on the turn?

The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officers’ survey suggests that credit availability is improving, but with confidence remaini...

Daily FX Strategy/EU debate over pensions: HUF positive in 4Q?

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

USD: USD is trading within recent ranges, following last week’s sharp gain. This is warranted as judged by the light, mixed US data flow. A potential negative for USD, should it be a vision of th...

BoE minutes show Sentance dissenting again Auto forwarded by a Rule

Tue, 17 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The minutes to the BoE minutes from the August rate decision showed that Andrew Sentance was once again the lone dissenter, voting for a rate hike whilst all other member voted for stable rates. Ah...

Daily Prophet 17 August 2010

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US: Production to rise – mainly weather…?

Despite July’s Mfg ISM decline, production should still be positive – though with a weaker manufacturing result than the headline – m...

Daily FX Strategy/G3 FX Forecast Update

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

USD: Volatility measures remain above levels of the start of this month (i.e. VIX index and EUR implied vols), yet not too concerning. With the global growth outlook under scrutiny markets ma...

German ZEW drops in August

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Still no rebound. The German ZEW index dropped in August, hinting at a growth slowdown in the second half of the year. The ZEW index, which measures investors’ confidence now stands at 14.0, from...

UK inflation falls again

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK CPI has fallen in line with expectations, dropping 0.2% MoM, resulting in the annual rate of inflation falling to 3.1% from 3.2%. Food rose 1%MoM, which was the biggest upward contributor. Strip...

Another weak month for the US housing market

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Housing starts increased slightly by 1.7%MoM to 546k in July, but the increase was entirely attributable to the volatile multifamily component. Single-family starts dropped 4.2%MoM. This is the thi...

US July industrial production surprisingly strong

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

July industrial production in the US was much better than had been expected, and the anticipated emphasis of the utilities sector was nowhere to be seen, whilst manufacturing put in an exceedingly ...

The Daily Prophet: 16 August 2010

Sun, 15 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Sales up, but disappointing

Although stronger sales in June account for some of the monthly disappointment in July, the weakness was broadly based –...

Daily FX Strategy/RON: A Trojan Horse?

Sun, 15 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

USD: The US dollar finished on its highs at the end of last week. If it is to sustain further gains this week it will have to do so on continued low FX market volumes and very limited d...

VAT hikes push up Eurozone core inflation

Sun, 15 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Eurozone annual inflation leapt from 1.4% in June to 1.7% in July, according to Eurostat’s second estimate. That is the highest level since November 2008 and in line with the earlier flash estima...

German GDP growth in Q2 strongest since reunification

Thu, 12 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Playing in a league of its own. Today’s first estimate of German GDP growth in the second quarter confirmed an excellent growth performance. According to the first estimate by the German agency ...

Daily Prophet: Friday 13 August, 2010

Thu, 12 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

EU16 GDP to show strong growth in Q2

Germany: In a league of its own

The German economy grew by a smashing 2.2% QoQ in Q2 2010, recording the best g...

Daily FX Strategy/Baltic recovery bodes well for SEK (ING Research Distribution)

Thu, 12 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view 24h call

USD: Weak initial claims data yesterday (highest in almost 6mths) allowed the USD to hold on to the majority of its gains. A bigger test comes today in the fo...

French GDP in line with consensus

Thu, 12 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After increasing by a modest 0.2% in 1Q on the back of the harsh winter, French GDP accelerated in 2Q, rising by 0.6%. The recovery is still on track in the second largest economy of the Eurozone. ...

Eurozone recovery gains traction in 2Q

Thu, 12 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Crisis? What crisis? According to a first Eurostat estimate, real GDP in the Eurozone increased by 1.0%QoQ in Q2 2010, from 0.2% in Q1. This is the strongest growth rate since Q1 2008. No component...

Daily FX Strategy/GBP/USD: BoE offering little incentive

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Unambiguously dovish outcomes from the FOMC (Tues) and BoE (Wed), together with soft activity data from China this week have combined to generate an altogether more n...

Daily Prophet: 12 August, 2010

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Bigger deficit to pull 2Q10 GDP lower 2Q10 GDP could fall from 2.4% to 2.0% following bad trade data for June.

UK: Bank of England still forecasting sub-2.0...

EU16 industrial production falls in June

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

EU16 industrial production shrank 0.1% in June, a much weaker outcome than the consensus expectation for a 0.6% increase. Growth in May was revised upwards to 1.1% from 0.9% previously. On a year-o...

US trade deficit widens to nearly -$50bn in June

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

More bad news for the US economy – this time from the trade sector – which had until recently been an area of US strength. The trade deficit widened substantially in June to -$49.895bn from -$4...

Monthly Economic Update - Summertime blues

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Market jitters are returning, as growing concern over the possibility of a double-dip recession in the US is not being offset by the better performance in the Eurozone. Few of the underlying global...

Bank of England inflation report - sub-2% inflation forecast

Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England continues to expect a substantial undershoot of its 2% central inflation target two years out, on the assumption of the broadly flat path for interest rates currently expected b...

Daily Prophet: 11 August, 2010

Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Bernanke waves his magic wand again – FOMC statement A downgrade of the economic situation, and re-investment of MBS proceeds into Treasuries.

UK: BoE –...

Bernanke waves his magic wand again - FOMC statement

Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The investment world was looking for two things from tonight’s FOMC statement: 1) a downgrade of the economic assessment paragraph and 2) a commitment to reinvest MBS proceeds back into MBS or Tr...

Daily FX Strategy/USD/JPY: BoJ bides its time

Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The FOMC delivered an unambiguously dovish statement, saying that the pace of recovery ‘has slowed in recent months’ and that the outlook for further recovery ‘...

Industrial production tumbles in France

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Industrial production dropped in France by 1.7% in June. French industry, however, remains on a positive trend and grew by 0.8% QoQ in 2Q. That said, industrial activity weakened strongly with resp...

German exports continue to surge

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Export recovery continues. German exports increased by 3.8% QoQ in June, from a May surge of 7.9%. At the same time, imports increased by 1.9%, from 13.7% in May. As a consequence, the trade surplu...

Daily Prophet: 10 August, 2010

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: FOMC – downgrade to recovery expected It is hard to see how the Fed can avoid downgrading its view of the economic recovery – more reasons for bond yields to ...

Daily FX Strategy / FOMC downgrade / USD downside

Mon, 09 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Position adjustment ahead of tonight’s FOMC decision (see pg 2 for full preview) has taken USD to its best level for a week. Fundamentally we see little upside for ...

US payrolls adds to recovery fears and potential for more QE

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US labour report for July is worse than expected with payrolls falling 131,000 (consensus was -65,000) while there were a net 126,000 of downward revisions to June and May. The household survey, w...

German industrial production takes a breather

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

German industrial production shrunk 0.6% in June, disappointing the consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase. However, one has to put things in perspective: this contraction came on the back of a...

UK IP disappoints, but no revisions to GDP

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK industrial production has surprisingly fallen 0.5% (consensus was for a 0.1% gain). This was caused by a 6%MoM fall in oil and gas extraction caused by earlier than usual maintenance shutdowns �...

The ECB’s long and winding exit road

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

We all know that the ECB’s mid-summer meeting seldom brings big surprises. This time was not different. As expected the ECB kept its main interest rates stable for the 15th consecutive month, qua...

Prophet: 6 August 2010

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: On the slide

Total payrolls are likely to fall for the second consecutive month, risking ongoing weakness in confidence and spending, and therefore addition...

Economic Calendar: contrasting policies

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

There appears to be a growing divergence in the views of central bankers either side of the Atlantic. On the one hand you have the ECB, which is looking towards policy normalisation now that strong...

Daily FX Strategy/USD/CAD: US vs Canada - compare & contrast

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Perhaps it is too much to read into one day’s price action, but the USD showed slightly more resilience to bad news yesterday. However, it remains fragile ahead of ...

Prophet: 5 August 2010

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Eurozone: ECB likely to sound a bit more confident

Japan: Jawboning & Cost of Hedging

USD/JPY already priced in a return to recession EMEA Czech Republic:...

Daily FX Strategy/Speculating on the USD decline

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Finally some better news out of the US came in the form of services ISM yesterday, arresting the fall in US yields and the USD. Yet the market is still fearful of a d...

BoE leaves rates unchanged

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left monetary policy unchanged with no statement. Andrew Sentance remains the only clear hawk within the bank at this stage, arguing that emergency levels of interest rates ...

Financial Market Outlook: Push the button

Wed, 04 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

A deteriorating US outlook suggests additional monetary policy loosening is increasingly probable, offering further support for US Treasuries.

------------------------------------------...

Mixed EU16 retail sales

Tue, 03 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

EU16 retail sales stagnated in June, resulting in a 0.4% year-on-year increase. At the same time May figures were revised higher. While retail sales fell on a monthly basis in Germany and France, t...

Prophet: 4 August 2010

Tue, 03 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

UK: No braking from the Bank of England

Andrew Sentance to remain the lone hawk at this week’s rate decision. We believe tighter fiscal policy and slower exte...

Daily FX Strategy / ECB unlikely to stem EUR/USD tide

Tue, 03 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The almost uninterrupted run of weak US economic data continued yesterday, maintaining USD under heavy pressure. We note with particular worry the decline in weekly A...

Benign EU16 PPI report

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The EU16 producer price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in June, resulting in a 3.0% year-on-year increase. This outcome was slightly below consensus expectations. The year-on-year increase in energ...

Prophet: 3 August 2010

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Losing momentum?

Key components of the ISM offer further evidence showing that the pace of growth is losing steam.

EMEA

Emerging Markets: ...

Daily FX Strategy/ EUR/CZK: Headed south to 24.0

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The combination of a reasonably positive risk environment and the expectation that the Fed will have to ease further is keeping the dollar under pressure. And it is n...

US ISM - key components show growth momentum is fading

Sun, 01 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The US ISM manufacturing index for July has come in stronger than expected, but still shows a slowdown in growth. The headline index has dipped to 55.5 from 56.2 versus a consensus forecast of 54.5...

UK manf. PMI shows 2Q momentum maintained in July

Sun, 01 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The July reading of the UK manufacturing PMI is a touch stronger than expected at 57.3 versus 57.0 consensus. It is well above the 50 break even level, suggesting that the sector has maintained its...

Swiss PMI rises to highest level ever

Sun, 01 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In Switzerland, the Purchasing Manager Index, one of the main leading economic indicators, rose once again from 65.7 to 66.9 in July, continuing the catching up witnessed in the past few months. Th...

Prophet - The Financial Markets Daily

Sun, 01 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Trouble ahead?

While GDP has bounced back, concerns about consumer spending are intensifying and point to much weaker growth in 2H10.

Global: European...

Daily FX Strategy/New IMF deal reduces probability of UAH deval

Sun, 01 Aug 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: China’s closely followed PMI gauge of business sentiment fell to 51.2 from 52.1 in July (an HSBC-sponsored version fell below 50 for a first time since Mar 2009), y...

ECB Preview - Back to the exit?

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

We expect rates to remain on hold when the ECB meets next Thursday. That said, after the successful stress tests and some improvement on the sovereign bond markets, the ECB might feel more confiden...

Eurozone inflation at 20-month high, unemployment steady

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, Eurozone annual inflation leapt from 1.4% in June to 1.7% in July, the highest level since November 2008. The details are not yet available, but the headli...

Prophet: 30 July 2010

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: At the peak already?

Today’s initial release of US 2Q GDP could mark the peak in growth with lead indicators suggesting a softer 2H10.

Japan: Recove...

Daily FX Strategy/Financial market health check: B+ for effort

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Quiet summer markets prevail with investors somewhat surprisingly left with the view that Europe could end up being the out-performer. This seems amazing given the st...

US GDP in line, but with major data revisions

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The 2Q10 US GDP figure has come in close to consensus at 2.4% versus 2.6% expected. There have also been some major revisions with the recession shown to have been deeper than thought. Output contr...

Belgian GDP increased by 0.7% in second quarter 2010

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After the release of the GDP growth in the US, in line with consensus, Belgium is the first Eurozone country to deliver growth numbers for Q2. The flash estimate of the National Bank of Belgium sho...

EA16 economic sentiment rises to highest since March 2008

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

July’s sharper-than-expected increase in economic sentiment will further allay fears of a near-term double dip recession in the Eurozone and may give fresh support to the euro. The European Commi...

German inflation only temporarily higher

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

German preliminary HICP inflation rose to 1.2% in July from 0.8% in June, slightly above the consensus estimate. On a monthly basis consumer prices rose 0.3%. The national measure of inflation came...

Prophet: 29 July 2010

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Prophet: 29 July 2010

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

ECB tightens collateral rules

The ECB’s revised collateral framework indicates a slow reversal from the exceptional measures...

Daily FX Strategy: Enjoy the rest...it won ´t last

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Last night’s release of the Fed Beige book portrayed a weak US recovery, with some signs of activity slowing (in the manufacturing sector). However, most sectors of...

Global Economic Calendar

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Over the past few weeks we have seen a clear outperformance of the Eurozone data relative to the US. Lead business surveys, such as the German Ifo index and the

European purchasing managers�...

Eurozone: debt turmoil affects bank credit conditions

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB has just released the results of its latest quarterly bank lending survey. Disappointingly, they indicate a further net tightening of credit standards over the past three months, both on lo...

Prophet: 28 July 2010

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Home prices increase, but no cause for optimism Prices may even experience a double dip later in the year.

UK: Booming Britain?

Yesterday’s retail s...

Daily FX Strategy/FX implications from US data plunge

Tue, 27 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The risk environment remains cautiously upbeat, with European banks rallying strongly Tuesday on the perceived relaxation of Basel III rules – in particular allowin...

Eurozone credit growth remains weak, despite increase in Jun

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The latest money supply and credit growth figures support the view that Eurozone inflation pressures are likely to remain muted over the coming two years. Consequently, the data suggest there is li...

Prophet: 27 July 2010

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Confidence collapsing

Confidence measures are declining, which threatens a much weaker consumer spending environment in 2H10 and implies further downside fo...

Daily FX Strategy/ USD/ZAR equilibrium around 8.30

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Mild US equity gains of 1% yesterday helped indices back into positive territory for the year-to-date. This is in part fostered by exceptionally low interest rate exp...

Increase in US home prices no cause for optimism

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Case-Shiller 20-City home price index increased 0.5%MoM in May (sa), and 4.6%YoY. In the recent flow of negative housing news, this is a lonely sign of relief. Except that it isn’t really. Pu...

US consumer confidence falls again - weaker spending ahead

Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Conference Board measure of US consumer confidence has fallen 3.9 points to 50.4 in July. There was an upward revision to last months figure so when compared with the expected drop of 1.9 point...

US new home sales flattered by revisions

Sun, 25 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

June new home sales recovered to 330k (saar), jumping 23.6%MoM. This seems like a lot, but is caused by a substantial downward revision of the May figure. June sales may be higher than in May, they...

EU Stress tests: Few surprises

Sun, 25 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Today saw the eagerly awaited results of the EU stress tests. The key findings were that 7 of the 91 institutions tested failed to maintain the 6% Tier 1 capital ratio under the adverse scenario of...

Daily FX Strategy/EU Stress tests: Not bad for EUR

Sun, 25 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: All eyes will be on the performance of European bank equity and debt today following the release of Friday’s stress test. Critics argue that the degree of macro str...

Prophet - The Financial Markets Daily

Sun, 25 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Eurozone: Stress tests are just stress tests

Japan: Strong yen cuts into export incomes

UK: Startling strength.

Canada: Inflation eases on sharp dec...

Daily FX Strategy/GBP: Soft under-belly

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: It is all about Europe today, given the release of the Eurozone bank stress tests at 16gmt today and the German IFO at 8gmt. Given that these stress tests were design...

Prophet: 23 July 2010

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Slip sliding away

Home sales are sliding in the aftermath of the homebuyer tax credit. Home prices may be heading for their own little double dip.

UK:...

Global Economic Calendar: Testing the recovery

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s recent testimony suggests that US central bankers are becoming increasingly concerned about growth prospects and financial market conditions. With inflatio...

More trouble for Hungary as Moody\'s puts rating on review for downgrade

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

bne:flash, July 23, 2010

Further fallout from the new Hungarian government's decision to allow talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU over a review of their bailou...

UK GDP surges in 2Q10 - strongest since 1Q06

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK 2Q10 GDP is startlingly strong. Output jumped 1.1%QoQ in real terms versus market expectations of 0.6% (range of estimates was 0.1% to 0.9%). This is the strongest growth rate in four years and ...

Belgian Business confidence increased in July

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After two consecutive drops, business confidence measured by the National Bank of Belgium increased in July (-6.5 from -7.7 in June). However, last month’s drop has not been entirely offset. Look...

Bernanke Testimony: Rate hikes a more distant prospect

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his Semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony to Congress, hints that the prospect of monetary policy tightening is becoming a little more distant. The Fed base case is fo...

UK retail sales continue their resilient run

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales are proving to be remarkably resilient. Total sales rose 0.7%MoM versus expectations of a 0.5% increase while May was revised up to show a 0.8% increase versus the 0.6% rate previou...

US home sales drop less than expected, but more to come

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US existing home sales fell -5.1%MoM to 5.37m (saar) in May. At first glance, this looks good: consensus was for a drop to 5.1m. Unfortunately, the higher number does not reflect an unexpected uptu...

Prophet: 22 July 2010

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Rate hikes remain a distant prospect The Fed looks for ongoing recovery, but with lots of uncertainty and inflation set to stay subdued, rates will remain excepti...

BoE minutes again show a lone hawk

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The minutes to the July Bank of England monetary policy meeting showed the committee voted 7-1 in favour of leaving interest rates unchanged at 0.5% with Andrew Sentence again the dissenter. He aga...

Prophet: 21 July 2010

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Into the void

Housing data expected to be weak in the void following the expiry of the homebuyer tax credit.

Eurozone: That double-dip feeling

C...

Daily Prophet: 20 July 2010

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Canada: Questioning the next move

A run of strong data is likely to see the Bank of Canada hike rates again today (20 July). A “no change” decision is not o...

Daily FX Strategy / EUR: Portfolio flows reasonably resilient

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The two major highlights for this week will be Fed’s Bernanke semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday and also the release of the stress tests o...

Daily FX Strategy / EUR: Portfolio flows reasonably resilient

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The two major highlights for this week will be Fed’s Bernanke semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday and also the release of the stress tests o...

US housing starts slip further

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US housing starts fell -5.0%MoM in June from a downwardly revised May figure, to 549k (saar). Taking out the noisy multifamily component, single-family starts fell -0.7%, after a -18.8%MoM drop in ...

BoC hikes 25bp, but markedly more cautious statement

Mon, 19 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of Canada has raised the target for the overnight rate by 0.25% to 0.75%, as expected by all economists surveyed in a Bloomberg poll. But the accompanying text plays up a considerable numb...

Prophet - The Financial Markets Daily

Sun, 18 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Faltering confidence increases double dip risk.

Eurozone: Export recovery intact, for now

EMEA

Emerging Markets: More marketing feedback

Daily FX Strategy / CAD: Not a crowded trade, rebuild longs

Sun, 18 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Softer US data last week and a heavy fall in US equities on Friday has undermined the risk environment. Compounding this short term trend has been the break-down in t...

Eurozone export recovery intact, for now

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Eurozone exports resumed their upward climb in May, rising 1.6% MoM in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to Eurostat data just released. Exports are now up more than 20% from the trough in May-2...

Daily Prophet: 16 July 2010

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Some good news and some bad news on production Headline figures for June better than expected, but manufacturing number weak and leading indicators very soft.

...

Economic calendar: Losing momentum

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

There is a growing recognition that after the growth spurt in Q2 the pace of the Eurozone economic recovery will probably slow in the second half of this year, possibly quite sharply. We expect nex...

Daily FX Strategy: So what\'s wrong with the dollar?

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The dollar has fallen heavily this week, fuelled by expectations that the Fed may be as likely to ease as it is to tighten policy. Softer US activity data has not hel...

US CPI continues to soften

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The June CPI report once again highlights the lack of inflation pressures in the US economy. Headline prices fell for the third month in a row – this time by -0.1% MoM, which was in line with mar...

Daily Prophet: 15 July 2010

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Fed turns more downbeat in minutes

FOMC economic forecasts and assessment have been scaled back, but what jumps out is how much more the economy has s...

Daily FX Strategy/EUR/GBP: Implied vol. relatively high

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The minutes of the June 22-23 FOMC meeting released last night did indeed portray a more worried Fed. Half the FOMC now see the growth risks skewed to the downside, a...

US production up 0.1% in June

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US industrial production was a shade better than expectations, rising 0.1% mom (INGf -0.1%). But the key manufacturing component was down 0.4%, and what appears to have saved the headline figure wa...

UK impact from EMU break-up: Double dip or depression?

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In our recent note, "EMU Break-up: Quantifying the Unthinkable, 7 July 2010", we looked at the global impact of a break-up of the Eurozone. In this report we discuss the potential impact of such a ...

EA16 industrial upswing continues; CPI falls to 1.4%

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

May’s sharp increase in Eurozone industrial production suggests that the recovery in the export-sensitive industrial sector has remained little affected so far by the region’s fiscal woes. The ...

UK Inflation falls, but core pressures continue

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK June CPI has dipped to 3.2%YoY, in line with expectations, versus 3.4% in May. However, the inflation hawks will not be pacified since the core inflation rate (ex food and energy) actually accel...

Prophet: 13 July 2010

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

UK: A cooling market

The UK housing market is showing further signs of moderation, arguing against the case for higher rates within the next 12 months.

Daily FX Strategy/CE3: Investors yet to rebuild HUF bond positions

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: A strong showing from Intel after the close has encouraged the risk environment and weighed on the dollar. In the absence of major US earnings releases today, it will...

Prophet: 14 July 2010

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Recession still on for small businesses The US economy has recovered well following the end of the recession, but the small business sector remains mired arguing ...

US Retail sales fall 0.5%mom

Tue, 13 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The US data continues to weaken, with the latest retail sales figures for June decreasing 0.5%mom, after a slightly upwardly revised -1.1% decline in May. Core sales (ex autos) were down only 0.1%m...

UK GDP 0.3%QoQ, deeper recession, savings ratio falls again

Sun, 11 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The delayed revisions to 1Q10 GDP show no major changes at the headline level with GDP growing 0.3%QoQ and -0.2%YoY. However, there have been some historical amendments, which mean that the peak to...

Prophet: 12 July 2010

Sun, 11 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

UK: the savings squeeze continues

Today’s GDP revisions are set to highlight a further fall in the savings ratio. This will likely need to continue if the UK ...

Daily FX Strategy/Labour (market) pains

Sun, 11 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Having witnessed impressive gains last week, the S&P faces the start of Q2 earnings season this week – beginning today with Alcoa’s release after the close. It is...

French IP rebounds sharply in May

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Industrial production rose by 1.7% MoM in May. On a yearly basis, industrial production increased by a strong 8.2%. This sharp rebound totally erased April’s drop. The details reveal that the inc...

Daily FX Strategy/RUB: Just a cheap commodity currency

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The risk environment remains relatively upbeat ahead of the US Q2 earnings season which starts on Monday. And despite the US 10 year yield nudging above 3% again, lat...

Economic Calendar: Risk reversal

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Despite the recent activity data having, in general, disappointed, risk assets have recovered somewhat over the past week. Unfortunately, upward momentum may wane this coming week with further weak...

Prophet: 9 July 2010

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Greece: A key passage in Greece’s solitary race for solvency The parliamentary approval of the pension/labour reforms should give the leeway to the second EU/IMF di...

ECB press conference - Showing confidence

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

No news on rates and no news on the rest. As expected, the ECB today left interest rates unchanged and did not give any hints on possible policy changes in the near future. While ECB president Tric...

BoE leaves monetary policy unchanged

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has again left monetary policy unchanged with Bank Rate remaining at 0.5% while the size of the asset purchase facility is maintained at £200bn. It is likely that Andrew Sentan...

German industry powers ahead

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Spring sprint accelerates. German industrial production increased by 2.6% MoM in May, from 1.2% in April. The increase was driven by the production of intermediate (3.2% MoM) and capital (4.6% MoM)...

Daily FX Strategy/EUR/GBP: Caught in the cross currents

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: After a few troubled weeks, confidence in the global recovery has picked up slightly again. Earlier this week we saw the RBA reasonably confident and overnight we hav...

Prophet: 7 July 2010

Tue, 06 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

EMU Break-up: Quantifying the Unthinkable Today, we have released a report discussing the potential economic impact of a Eurozone break-up. It would likely dwarf the ...

Daily FX Strategy/EUR priced for key Greek pension vote?

Tue, 06 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: A weak non-manufacturing ISM report yesterday maintained the trend of disappointing US economic data. With the exception of tomorrow’s weekly initial claims release...

German new orders drop in May

Tue, 06 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

German new orders took a break, dropping by 0.5% MoM in May, from an upwardly revised 3.2% in April. Compared with one year ago, new orders are up by around 25%. Both foreign and domestic demand dr...

Daily FX Strategy/HUF: Peak vs. CHF no danger for banks

Mon, 05 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: It is a quiet week for US today, meaning it will probably be difficult to knock the market out of its recently acquired view that the US will slow in the second half ...

Prophet: 6 July 2010

Mon, 05 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

UK: Some better news

The fall in the purchasing managers’ indices has been a worry, but last night’s BCC survey has offered encouragement, which could tempo...

Eurozone retail sector not out of the woods yet

Sun, 04 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s retail sales report is modestly encouraging and brings some hope that Eurozone consumers may finally be opening their purses. According to preliminary data by Eurostat, the volume of reta...

Eurozone retail sector not out of the woods yet

Sun, 04 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Prophet: 5 July 2010

Sun, 04 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Global: Monthly Forecast changes conference call

US: Looking beyond the consensus headline

Italy: Labour market concerns persist

EMEA

Po...

Daily FX Strategy/ AUD: Fiscal irony / RBA preview

Sun, 04 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Friday’s nonfarm payroll report confirmed the recent run of weak US data, keeping USD on a downward path. Talk of ‘double-dip’ may be excessive, but accurately ...

Daily FX Strategy/ EUR/USD update & NFP preview

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: For the first time in many months, a weaker batch of US data on Thursday triggered some independent USD weakness. Over recent months, such has been the concern over t...

Daily Prophet: 2 July 2010

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Global: Monthly Forecast changes conference call Listen to explanations behind rate changes, forecast downgrades, FX revisions - ask questions to forecasters.

U...

ING Monthly Economic Update: Flirting with deflation

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 23:00:00 +0000

With deflation looming as a bigger threat than inflation, the prospect of higher interest rates is receding. This will provide some support for economic growth, which is challenged by the fashionab...

German unemployment drops again in June

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Impressive performance continues. German unemployment decreased by a non-seasonally adjusted 88,200 in June. Officially, 3.153 million Germans are currently unemployed. This is the lowest level sin...

Eurozone inflation falls to 1.4%

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

June’s flash CPI figures confirm that inflationary pressure in the Eurozone remains very muted. The headline inflation rate dropped from 1.6% in May to 1.4%, a touch below the consensus forecast ...

German retail sales increase in May

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Finally some shopping activity. May retail sales brought some evidence that German consumers can still spend. Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, retail sales increased by 0.4% MoM (-2.4% Y...

Daily Prophet: 1 July, 2010

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: More bad news on the US economy.ADP adds to the tally of recent bad US news. Confirmation by payrolls is by no means assured – more gains by bonds suggested.

Daily FX Strategy/ USD/JPY: It\'s 2003 all over again

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The risk environment remains challenging, with concerns building over both the US domestic and international growth environment. On the former, the market is bracing ...

Swiss PMI

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In Switzerland, the Purchasing Manager Index dropped slightly, though only for the first time since December 2009. The index was 65.7 in June, down from 66.4 in May. This is still much higher than ...

Global: Monthly Forecast changes conference call

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Listen to explanations behind rate changes, forecast downgrades, FX revisions - ask questions to forecasters.

A reminder for the monthly IN...

US pending home sales tumble

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US May pending home sales tumbled as the homebuyer tax credit expired. Pending sales fell an eye-watering 30%MoM. Pending sales are now 15.9% below the May 2009 level, and have even dipped below th...

Daily Prophet: 7 July 2010

Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Japan: Key Business Activity Releases Turn Down Emerging signs of weakness seen in machinery orders and Cabinet indicators - Further evidence suggesting that economic...

US April house prices rise 0.44% - the last gasp of rebates?

Mon, 28 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US house prices rose 0.44%mom in April in the 20 City composite index measured by S&P Case Shiller. This was a better result than had been expected, though March prices were revised down from -0.05...

Daily FX Strategy/RON: Has the NBR lost its fight?

Mon, 28 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: With USD trading a relatively narrow range, there is considerably more action in the bond market. US 10 Treasury yields have dropped below 3% for a first time since A...

Daily Prophet: 29 June 2010

Mon, 28 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets

US Slow spending start to 2Q10

Japan: Disappointing consumer data

Eurozone: Always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon

EMEA

Turkey: CBT ...

US Conference Board consumer confidence plunges in June

Mon, 28 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

June’s Conference Board consumer confidence index has just plunged to 52.9, taking the index down to levels not seen since last November. The size of the fall was also huge, with the index fallin...

Daily Prophet 28th June 2010

Sun, 27 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Japan: Retail Sales Turn Down

The end of a strong run of retail data in May EMEA

Russia: Growth, inflation, RUB in the spotlight again The recent CBR and ...

Daily FX Strategy/2H10 FX: Don’t rely on the consensus

Sun, 27 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

USD: The G20 summit in Toronto concluded with leaders pledging ‘growth friendly’ fiscal consolidation and plans for advanced economies to halve their budget deficits by 2013. The summit declara...

Eurozone credit growth remains weak

Sun, 27 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The continued weakness in broad money and credit growth is a reminder that the Eurozone inflation outlook remains subject to substantial downside risks. Annual growth in M3, the broadest measure of...

German inflation drops to 0.9% in June

Sun, 27 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

According to a first estimate based on the results of six German states, German headline inflation dropped in June, with the year-on-year rate at 0.9%, from 1.2% in May. Headline inflation based on...

Daily FX Strategy/G20 summit: Papering over the cracks

Thu, 24 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Financial markets are under pressure, with the banking sector vulnerable as US Congress gets close to finalising financial reform. The current compromise between the ...

Daily Prophet: 25 June 2010

Thu, 24 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

G-20: Papering over the cracks

With diverging economic priorities, we are likely to see a statement short on action, which is likely to mean ongoing market dema...

Economic Calendar: tin hats

Thu, 24 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Up until last month the data flow from the US was generally improving. However, the latest numbers have disappointed with weak private payrolls and declining housing figures of key concern. Combine...

US new home sales fall by a third

Wed, 23 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Following the expiry of the homebuyer tax credit, May new home sales came in one third lower (-32.7%MoM). Sales are now at 300k (saar), which is the lowest number since data collection started in 1...

FOMC statement - a shade more negative

Wed, 23 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

There would have been few expectations for any notable change in the Fed’s rhetoric prior to this meeting. And this is indeed the case. A month ago, when the US recovery was looking more robust a...

Daily Prophet: 24 June 2010

Wed, 23 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Fed statement – a shade more negative: The prospects for a rate hike before the end of the year are rapidly diminishing.

Japan: Is the recovery in exports...

Daily FX Strategy/SEK: Debt office speculates on strong SEK

Wed, 23 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

USD: The Fed delivered a relatively downbeat prognosis of the US recovery in its statement last night, warning that financial conditions had become less supportive of economic growth. We wonder whe...

US Economics Update: 2Q10 - Party Poopers

Wed, 23 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Last quarter, we suggested that the good news in the US would not last. The economy is still recovering, but there are already some cracks appearing. Events in the Eurozone may also end up spoiling...

Eurozone recovery shifting into lower gear

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone recovery continues but appears to be shifting into a lower gear. According to preliminary estimates, the composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the 16-country region fell fro...

BoE surprises with one member voting for a rate hike

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

There is a major surprise within the Bank of England minutes in that one member, Andrew Sentence, actually voted for an interest rate rise. This is the first time anyone on the MPC has voted for a ...

German consumer confidence remains stable

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Shrugging off the debt crisis. German consumer confidence is expected to remain stable next month, according to today’s GfK indicator for July. Looking at the June details, German consumers have ...

Daily FX Strategy/FOMC: Little change in text, favour carry

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: With market volatility (as indicated by short-term implied FX vols) easing lower, summer markets may be upon us. What might change this? CNY fixings suggest just a gl...

Prophet: 23 June 2010

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: New home sales set to fall sharply.

UK: The £107bn headwind.

Japan: Medium Term Fiscal Plan Unveiled.

Germany: A league of its own?

B...

Germany: Powering ahead

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

German businesses defied sovereign debt worries as the Ifo index rebounded in June. The headline index increased to 101.8, from 101.5; its highest level since May 2008. The current assessment conti...

Daily FX Strategy/INR: Outperformance of Asian FX bodes well

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Despite the PBOC accommodating a 0.5% appreciation of the CNY in a USD/CNY fixing at 6.7980 today, it seems that local state banks have driven the spot back up to 6.8...

Prophet: 22 June 2010

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Wednesday’s FOMC text likely little changed.

UK: The £100bn man.

Eurozone: Leading indicators score 2 - 1 in favour of slowdown

Japan: So Mu...

UK Budget: The £107bn growth headwind

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK Budget is a touch more aggressive than we expected, with the structural deficit brought down from 8.7% of GDP to 0.8% by 2014/15 through £107bn of fiscal tightening. However, with suc...

Eurozone consumer confidence improves slightly

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

June’s marginal increase in Eurozone consumer confidence suggests that the broader confidence fallout from the sovereign debt crisis so far has remained contained. The increase in the sentiment i...

Surprise drop in May US existing home sales

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Contrary to expectations, existing home sales did not increase. They even fell slightly by 2.2%MoM to 5.66m (saar). This is a surprise: The homebuyer tax credit was widely expected to have caused a...

Eurozone economic sentiment up in June

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Sovereign debt shock petering out. Economic sentiment in the Eurozone surprisingly improved in June. The European Commission’s “economic sentiment” indicator (ESI) increased to 98.7, from 98....

Daily FX Strategy/More flexible CNY: market impact

Sun, 20 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: On Saturday China signalled that it would permit a more flexible CNY. Page 2 covers our initial thoughts on the move as does this link to the views of our economist i...

Daily Prophet: 21 June 2010

Sun, 20 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Eurozone: Fresh tears for the euro?

UK: Getting in shape…

EMEA

Czech Republic: The new CNB governor.

Poland: second round of preside...

Daily Prophet: 18 June 2010

Thu, 17 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

UK: a small bounce.

Eurozone: Forward escape.

Japan: Flavour of the month – Fiscal Consolidation.

EMEA

Turkey: CBT holds policy rat...

Daily FX Strategy/EUR decline: Liquid FX the place to be

Thu, 17 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Markets are beginning to cast an eye toward the major event of next week - the FOMC decision on Wed. At this stage, a significant change to its statement seems unlike...

UK Public Finances: Getting in shape

Thu, 17 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The UK Public Sector Net Borrowing figures (PSNB) for May have come in better than expected, as they have done consistently over the past few months. Net borrowing was £16.02bn versus expectations...

UK retail sales surprise with a bounce

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales for May have surprised on the upside by rising 0.6%MoM versus a consensus forecast of a 0.1% gain. Indeed, the British Retail Consortium and Confederation of British Retailers repor...

Prophet: 17 June 2010

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Heading for deflation?

EMEA

Slovakia: Right-wing parties will form a new government. A

Romania: Another poor C/A release.

LA...

Daily FX Strategy/ USD/CNY: No yuan revaluation in 2010

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: In all likelihood it is the pace of US economic activity that will determine the time the Fed starts to roll back extreme monetary stimulus. Yet benign inflation prin...

SNB drops “excessive appreciation” stance

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Today, the Swiss National Bank decided to keep its main target for the 3 month Libor unchanged at the historically low level of 0.25%. This was widely expected as Libor has decreased to nearly 0% s...

UK Budget Preview: The lost 14%

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Next week’s Budget announcement looks likely to set in motion £100bn+ of fiscal austerity measures. Growth will inevitably suffer and when combined with the effects of the recession means that b...

UK Budget Preview: The lost 14% (correct attachment)

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Economic Calendar: Fine tuning from the Fed?

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

While there will be no policy change at this week’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the market will be looking for any shifts in the language of the accompanying text. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has...

Prophet: 16 June 2010

Tue, 15 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Housing starts likely to suffer tax credit hangover.

Eurozone: banks’ reliance on ECB funding.

Germany: Debt drop.

Japan: Growth Strategy L...

Daily FX Strategy/SNB preview: How to handle the CHF?

Tue, 15 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The fact that the S&P 500 managed to close back above its 200 day m.a. on Tuesday is starting to entice some investors off the fence and back into risk. We find it ha...

EA16 underlying inflation picture remains subdued

Tue, 15 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The final Eurozone CPI release confirms that headline inflation edged up from 1.5% in April to 1.6% in May. The slight pick-up in the headline rate mainly reflected higher energy price inflation (9...

May US housing starts suffer tax credit hangover

Tue, 15 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The party is over! The homebuyer tax credit was great while it lasted. Now we’re back in the harsh reality. Housing starts plunged 10%MoM in May. Excluding the volatile multi-family component, th...

EA16 exports drop; employment steady

Mon, 14 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

April’s fall in Eurozone exports might look worrying at first glance, but is probably little more than a correction. Exports out of the 16-country region fell 2.4 MoM on a seasonally-adjusted bas...

German ZEW slides in June

Mon, 14 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Debt drop. The German ZEW index dropped in June on the back of sovereign debt worries. The ZEW index which measures investors’ confidence now stands at 28.7, from 45.8 in May; approaching its his...

UK inflation starts to fall

Mon, 14 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK CPI has come in a little lower than the market was expecting at 3.4%YoY. This is the first fall since February and offers some hope that inflation will start to head lower as it has elsewhere in...

Global: ING Monthly forecast changes conference call

Sun, 13 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Listen to explanations behind rate changes, forecast downgrades, FX revisions – ask questions to forecasters.

A reminder for the monthly ING forecast change call, to take place today at 11:...

Daily FX Strategy/ USD/TRY: Trigger for local USD sales on the up

Sun, 13 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting (23 June), US data this week will focus on the housing sector and inflation. On housing, weakness is expected to be a general them...

Prophet files 14 June 2010

Sun, 13 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Global: Monthly forecast changes conference call.

US: Soft retail sales suggest softer GDP ahead…

UK: Inflation fears to dissipate.

Japan: MoF B...

Eurozone industrial recovery continues

Sun, 13 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

April’s sharp rise in Eurozone industrial output indicates that the recovery in the export-sensitive industrial sector has been little affected so far by the region’s fiscal woes. The 0.8% mont...

UK: OBR\'s rosy picture of good growth, lower borrowing

Sun, 13 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Office for Budget Responsibility has released its economic and fiscal forecasts that will set the framework for next week’s Budget policy announcements. It is an 88 page document outlining al...

Slovak PM reeling from bombshell on eve of elections

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Hours before Slovaks go to the polls this Saturday, Prime Minister Robert Fico has been broadsided by perhaps the gravest political scandal in the country's 17-year history - a voice recording...

Daily FX Strategy - EUR/USD forecast update: Targeting 1.10

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The pick-up in risk sentiment over the last 24 hours (S&P500 +3%) has been accompanied by the return of more traditional FX market behaviour – i.e. a stronger EUR &...

Prophet: 11 June 2010

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Global: Monthly Forecast changes conference call.

US: Households are selling to spend and deleverage.

Japan: Parties Jockey For Position in Coalition EC...

Economic Calendar: The disinflationary trend

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

CPI reports from the US and Eurozone and UK will be in focus. Core CPI rates will remain close to all time lows in the US and Eurozone and with spare capacity persisting, further declines are likel...

ING Changes to forecasts - conf call 14 June

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

A reminder for the monthly ING forecast change call, to take place Monday 14 June at 11.30CET (10.30 UK time).

Here you can listen to explanations behind rate changes, forecast downgrades, FX...

US May retail sales come in much softer than expected

Thu, 10 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US retail sales for May have come in a lot weaker than expected, with the headline down 1.2%mom (up 0.6% in April), and the core figure (ex autos) falling 1.1%. The headline number was widely expec...

US: Bernanke strikes a cautiously optimistic tone

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, in his prepared testimony before the House Committee on the Budget, suggests he has confidence in the US recovery story, but there are risks that the Fed has to be watch...

No change from the BoE

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left bank rate unchanged at 0.50% and chosen not to adjust its quantitative easing efforts with the size of the Asset Purchase Facility maintained at £200bn. Given the BoE�...

Net exports fuelled 1Q10 Italian GDP growth

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Italian National Statistical Office announced that the economy expanded 0.4% QoQ in 1Q10, 0.1% less than the flash estimate had indicated. As expected, the main contribution (0.5%) to quarterly...

Daily FX Strategy/SNB backed into a corner: EUR/CHF to 1.25

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: US equities failed to hold onto early gains, despite cautiously optimistic comment on the economy in testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Unless we are missing somet...

Prophet: 10 June 2010

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US: Bernanke’s cautious optimism.

Switzerland: SNB backed into a corner.

EMEA

Ukraine: IMF mission arrives.

Ukraine: Deposits growth for three months in a row.

ECB press conference - Masterly reticent

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After months and months of exciting and surprising ECB press conferences, today’s meeting brought some welcome boredom. As expected, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. Th...

German IP increases in April

Tue, 08 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Spring sprint continues. German industrial production increased by 0.9% MoM in April, from 4.3% in March. The increase was driven by the production of intermediate goods, energy and, once again, by...

Prophet: 9 June 2010

Tue, 08 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

Eurozone: ECB preview.

UK: No deviation.

EMEA

Hungary: Government’s fiscal strategy finally revealed.

Ukraine: NBU cuts discount ra...

Daily FX Strategy / RBNZ off and running ... sell AUD/NZD

Tue, 08 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: While the developed world remains pre-occupied with debt burdens, the EM world continues to perform well. Brazil printed 9% YoY growth in Q110 and its central bank is...

German exports drop in April

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Expected correction. German exports dropped by 5.9% MoM in April, from an almost record high +10.8% in March. At the same time, imports decreased by 7.3%, from a 11.4% surge in March. As a conseque...

Switzerland: GDP forecasts revised on back of unemployment

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Labour market prospects keep brightening in Switzerland as unemployment decreased for the second month in a row in May. The number of unemployed declined by 7496 units on the month to 151,074. Thi...

Daily Prophet: 8 June 2010

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

DEVELOPED MARKETS/GLOBAL

US: Narrowing the divide. The ISM and NFIB surveys have been telling contrasting stories. However, we look for the NFIB to improve today, boosting US recovery hopes a...

Daily FX Strategy/HUF: Government forced back to target

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Financial markets remain in a fragile position, with the S&P 500 teetering on the edge of a more substantial sell-off having failed to break above the 200 day m.a. at...

US labour data softer than hoped, but is encouraging

Sun, 06 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The May US labour report is a mixed bag with payrolls rising by less than hoped (431,000 versus 536,000 consensus), yet the unemployment rate fell more than expected (to 9.7% from 9.9%). The high c...

Daily FX Strategy / EUR: On the rack again

Sun, 06 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Markets face a rough ride early this week with risk assets under pressure. US equities fell 3.5% on Friday after a soft NFP report and are called 1% lower today follo...

Prophet: 7 June 2010

Sun, 06 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Poor payrolls, but labour demand is improving.

Japan: Distancing the government from power broker Ozawa.

EMEA

Hungary: Hungary is not ...

German new orders continue Spring sprint

Sun, 06 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Industrial recovery continues. German new orders continued their rally, increasing by 2.8% MoM in April, from 5.1% in March. Compared with one year ago, new orders are up by almost 30%. Both foreig...

Eurozone: domestic demand weakness persists

Thu, 03 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The GDP expenditure breakdown for 1Q10 confirms that the Eurozone’s economic recovery remains heavily reliant on exports. While GDP grew by 0.2% QoQ in Q1, exports increased by 2.5%, extending a ...

Economic Calendar: Back on the growth trail

Thu, 03 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After a renewed period of risk aversion, the upcoming data may provide some relief with firm activity figures likely on both sides of the Atlantic. German industrial orders and production are likel...

Prophet: 4 June 2010

Thu, 03 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: A growing optimism.

EMEA

Hungary: Extravagant statements from a Fidesz politician.

Ukraine: New presidential strategy and reforms annou...

Daily FX Strategy/NFP: Start of USD-led leg lower for EUR/USD?

Thu, 03 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: USD Index goes into today’s important May US labour report trading close to its recent high. We preview the release in full on page 2, noting here just the likeliho...

US April pending home sales boosted by tax credit

Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US pending home sales increased 6.0%MoM in April, as the homebuyer tax credit drew to a close. The cumulative increase since January is 23%. This surge in sales was to be expected. Contracts had to...

Prophet: 3 June 2010

Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: The tax music has stopped, the house party is over.

EMEA

Russia: Government is loosing conservative approach to budgeting.

Romania: PP...

Daily FX Strategy/JPY: Kan as new PM signals more active FX policy

Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The good news for the risk environment is that investors seem to be finding some value during the recent equity market correction and markets are stabilising. For tod...

Eurozone retail sales plunge

Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

April’s sharp fall in retail sales confirms that consumer retrenchment in the Eurozone is not over. According to preliminary data the volume of retail trade in the 16-country region plunged by 1....

Romania launches eZonomics, the country\'s first \"financial kitchen\"

Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Many of our daily decisions are influenced by economics. When’s the best time to travel? Is more expensive wine worth the money? Am I living in the right city? eZonomics was launched on ING.com l...

German retail sales increase in April

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Finally some spending.April retail sales in Germany brought some evidence that German consumers can still spend it.Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, retail salesincreased by 1...

Swiss GDP up 0.4% in Q1

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In Switzerland, GDP figures for the first quarter of 2010 came out this morning pointing to the expected 0.4% GDP growth QoQ. On an annual basis, this yields a jump from 0.6% in Q4 2009 to 2.2% in ...

UK manufacturing PMI remainss resilient

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The UK manufacturing PMI has surprised on the upside by managing to remain at a 15 year high. The reading of 58.0 for May matched the April figure and was just ahead of the 57.8 consensus figure. W...

Unemployment figures underline Eurozone divergence

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

April’s rise in unemployment confirms that thedownturn in the Eurozone labour market is not yet behind us. According to preliminary data by Eurostat, unemployment in the 16-country region rose by...

US growth outlook remains firm based on ISM

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The US ISM manufacturing index has dipped very modestly to 59.7 from 60.4. The consensus forecast was for a softer 59.0 on the basis of falls see in some of the regional purchasing managers’ indi...

Prophet: 2 June 2010

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Hatoyama Resigns As PM.

US: The strong growth story continues.

UK: Survey divergence continues.

Germany: Spring revival continues.

<...

Daily FX Strategy/EUR decline is Germany’s gain

Tue, 01 Jun 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Again it is hard to argue with the status of the dollar as both a safe haven and a cyclical recovery play. In tightening rates 25bp yesterday, clearly the Bank of Can...

German labour market revival continues

Mon, 31 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Spring revival continues. German unemployment decreased by a non-seasonally adjusted 164,800 in May. Officially, 3.242 million Germans are currently unemployed. This is the lowest level since Novem...

EA16 credit growth remains in the doldrums

Sun, 30 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The continued weakness in broad money and credit growth should temper concern about the possible inflationary consequences of the expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet and its recent bond-buying i...

EA16 economic sentiment unexpectedly worsens

Sun, 30 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The worse-than-expected reading for Eurozone economic confidence in May is a clear indication that the sovereign debt crisis in the Southern periphery has started to affect the overall real economy...

Daily FX Strategy/CAD: Chance of BoC back-track?

Thu, 27 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Investors seem to have found some value in equities this week, with equity bourses around the world enjoying 2-3% gains over the last 24 hours. The long week-end in b...

Daily Prophet: 28 May 2010

Thu, 27 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: US Profit data slowing its gains.

Japan: Is the Pace of Recovery Slowing?

Germany: Up but muted.

Canada: Strong hint of a June hike – but...

Economic calendar: the Atlantic Divide

Thu, 27 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The coming week is likely to highlight a massive divergence in data performance between the US and Europe. While fiscal and debt worries continue to depress sentiment in the Eurozone and UK economi...

US 1Q10 GDP and profit data slightly softer than expected

Wed, 26 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The second release of US GDP is worth a good look, as it contains corporate profits figures. The headline GDP result was a little softer than expected, at 3.0%QoQ (saar), but it is the weakness of ...

Daily Prophet: 27 May 2010

Wed, 26 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: New home sales surge as homebuyer tax credit expires.

Japan: Export Recovery Continues.

Italy: Italy does its homework, too.

EMEA

...

US new home sales surge in April

Wed, 26 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US new home sales jumped 14.8%MoM to 504k (sa) in April. This is the highest number in almost two years. Previous figures were revised upward as well. As the inventory of new homes continued to fal...

Daily FX Strategy/Could parliamentary elections shatter the CZK?

Wed, 26 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Market sentiment can at best be described as jittery, but updated OECD growth forecasts released yesterday serve as a reminder that the macro outlook has held up in t...

German consumers get scared

Tue, 25 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The sovereign debt crisis and recent market turmoil is showing up for the first time in German consumer confidence. German consumer confidence is expected to drop next month, according to today’s...

Daily FX Strategy/AUD: Mining super-tax fears exaggerated

Tue, 25 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Even though Monday saw some temporary stability in equity markets, sentiment remains poor. The market is starting to speculate what policy makers can do to restore co...

US Existing home sales surge in April

Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Strong US April existing home sales (5.77m at annualised rate, up from 5.36m in March) are another encouraging sign from the US. But like so much else, this could simply be a reflection of policy s...

Daily Prophet: 25 May, 2010

Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Existing Home sales surge.

Japan: Preview of the Medium Term Fiscal Strategy.

UK: Up a bit.

EMEA

Poland: MPC decision a day ear...

Daily FX Strategy/EUR: How much is peripheral Europe over-valued?

Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Global equity markets remain under heavy pressure with Asia falling 2-3% overnight and Europe expected to open with 2% losses. Understandably the Euro is facing its s...

UK GDP revised up, but outlook remains poor

Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK 1Q10 GDP has been revised up, in line with market expectations, to 0.3%QoQ (-0.2%YoY). The output data show production output being revised up to 1.2%QoQ from 0.7% while service sector output r...

Confidence surges on labour market improvements

Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The latest Conference Board consumer confidence measure for May is bafflingly strong. Tanking equity markets, and softness in house price growth (see recent Case Shiller decline) ought to be having...

US Case Shiller house price index slightly lower

Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Case-Shiller 20-City home price index edged down slightly by -0.05%MoM (sa) in March. This corresponds to 2.4%YoY growth. Despite a setback in sales in the winter months, the Case-Shiller index...

Prophet: 24 May 2010

Sun, 23 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Germany: Defying the debt crisis – at least for now.

UK: The debt dilemma.

EMEA

Romania: Trip notes from 19 May.

Ukraine: Notes f...

Sovereign woes hit EA16 consumer confidence

Thu, 20 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone have not left consumer confidence unscathed. The European Commission’s ‘flash’ estimate of May consumer confidence revealed a sharp fall in the hea...

German GDP growth in Q1 confirmed

Thu, 20 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Still looking good, even at second glance.Today’s second estimate of the German statistical office confirmed what we already knew: the recovery continues. The German economy at least partly defie...

German Ifo remains almost stable in May

Thu, 20 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The German Ifo index dropped only marginally in May as expectations weaken on the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. The headline index decreased to 101.5, from 101.6. The current assessment conti...

Eurozone composite PMI slips in May

Thu, 20 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

May’s fall in the composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) – the sharpest since February 2009 – suggest that recovery momentum in the Eurozone may be slowing. According to preliminary ...

Prophet: 21 May 2010

Thu, 20 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Eurozone: Sovereign woes hit consumer confidence.

Germany: GDP growth in Q1 confirmed

France: France determined to curb deficit EMEA Emerging Europe: T...

FMO: The growing threat of deflation

Thu, 20 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Markets have been understandably focused upon the Eurozone fiscal crisis, but there is another potential issue that has been quietly creeping up on the global economy.

- Core inflation rates ...

Economic calendar: feeling the pain

Thu, 20 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

We are now starting to see concerns about the implications of the Eurozone fiscal crisis feeding through into the economic data. Consumer confidence has already started to drop, as seen in the Euro...

Daily FX Strategy/EUR: Still higher risk premium required

Wed, 19 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The release of the minutes of the FOMC April 27-28 meeting show a Fed in no hurry to move. Even though 2010 growth projections were revised up and the 2011 GDP foreca...

Prophet: 20 May 2010

Wed, 19 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: The threat of deflation?

Germany: Lonely fighter or maverick?

Japan: Robust Growth in March, But Outlook Sours.

EMEA

Poland: Mi...

Daily FX Strategy/Japanese bond flows: Eurozone out of favour

Tue, 18 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Investor unease with the Eurozone increased greatly on Tuesday with signs that Germany has lost confidence with European solutions to this crisis and rather than impl...

Prophet: 19 May 2010

Tue, 18 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

FX: German short selling ban

Global: The deflation threat.

Germany: Crisis drop.

EMEA

Emerging Markets: How the markets may save the...

US CPI: the threat of deflation?

Tue, 18 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The US CPI report or April shows that inflation pressures are even weaker than expected. The headline rate has dropped from 2.3%YoY to 2.2% (market had been looking or it to rise to 2.4%) while the...

UK inflation jumps more than expected

Mon, 17 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK inflation has jumped more than expected to stand at 3.7%YoY in April versus expectations of a 3.5% reading. This is the highest annual inflation reading since November 2008. In terms of the brea...

ZEW drops in May

Mon, 17 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The German ZEW index dropped in May on the back of recent market turmoil. The ZEW index which measures investors’ confidence now stands at 45.8, from 53 in April; still clearly above its historic...

EA16 core CPI resumes downward trend

Mon, 17 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The final Eurozone CPI release confirms that headline inflation edged up from 1.4% in March to 1.5% in April. The further pick-up in the headline rate was driven by a 2 percentage point rise in ann...

Daily FX Strategy / EUR/USD: Low chances of FX intervention

Mon, 17 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The dollar continues to hold onto recent gains and looks a good cross-over play as both a safe haven and a cyclical growth story. That cross-over story was evidenced ...

Prophet: 18 May 2010

Mon, 17 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Tertiary Sector Retreats in March.

UK: Letter time.

EMEA

Ukraine: S&P raises sovereign LT rating to B.

Poland: Deficits.

Daily FX Strategy/RUB: Capital influx risk makes RUB cheap

Sun, 16 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: With the world’s reserve managers limited to the most liquid currencies there is little near-term to halt strong USD outperformance, given the plight of alternative...

Monthly forecast change call - Monday 17th May, 11CET

Sun, 16 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

A reminder for the monthly ING forecast change call, to take place this Monday 17th, at 11CET (10UK time). The call wil last around 30mins, and f...

US retail sales boosted by building/gardening

Sun, 16 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The April US retail sales report is a little better than the market was expecting with headline sales up 0.4% MoM (consensus 0.2%) while the figure for March was revised up to 2.1%MoM from the init...

Prophet: 17 May 2010

Sun, 16 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Global: Monthly Forecast changes conference call.

US: Data doubts?

Japan: Machinery Orders Recovers in March.

EMEA

Ukraine: Preside...

FX talkING/ING\'s view on the major bullish and bearish currency themes

Sun, 16 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

European policymakers have tried to stabilise investor confidence with a EUR750bn rescue package. Yet doubt remains as to whether Greece is prepared to take five years of pain or choose to default....

Asian FX Strategy - May forecast update

Sun, 16 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Please find attached our Asian team's latest views on USD/Asia.

...

French GDP growth disappoints in 1Q

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After increasing by a (downwards) revised 0.5% QoQ in 4Q, French GDP decelerated in 1Q and only rose by a very modest and below consensus 0.1% in 1Q. On a yearly basis, French GDP increased by 1.2%...

Mixed UK labour data

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Once again we have got some very mixed UK labour data. The claimant count unemployed rate has fallen to 4.7% from 4.8% while the jobless claims have fallen 27,100, which is the third consecutive mo...

The Italian economy is back on its recovery path

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After contracting a revised 0.1% (original release -0.3%) QoQ in 4Q09, the Italian economy resumed its recovery path in 1Q10 by posting an above consensus 0.5% QoQ increase in 1Q09 (0.6% YoY). Ista...

Eurozone GDP up 0.2% QoQ

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone has moved on after a soft patch. According to a first Eurostat estimate, real GDP in the Eurozone increased by 0.2% QoQ in the first quarter of 2010, after stagnating in the final quar...

Dovish BoE bad news for sterling and rate hike expectations

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England’s Inflation Report suggests that interest rates will not be moving up anytime soon. They are anticipating a decent pick-up in growth, “but the pace of expansion is likely to...

German economy grew by 0.2% in Q1

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

It’s a recovery, not a stagnation. According to the first estimate by the German agency for statistics, the recovery continued in the Q1 2010. The German economy grew by 0.2% QoQ. Compared with t...

Prophet: 12 May 2010

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

German: Economy grows 0.2% QOQ in Q1 2010

UK: Bullish signals?

EMEA

Hungary: Inflation is past its peak.

Turkey: Fiscal Rule Draft L...

Daily FX Strategy/ EUR/CHF: Can the SNB tolerate 1.25?

Tue, 11 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: USD Index has held close to its highs, with fading EUR sentiment suggesting the dollar pushes upwards. USD derives its gains from 2 sources. The first is ongoing nerv...

Mixed UK newsflow adds to sterling risks

Mon, 10 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The UK news flow is very mixed this morning with very strong industrial production figures and a rebound in the RICS house price balance being offset by the very weak retail sales numbers reported ...

Prophet: 10 May 2010

Mon, 10 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Who do you believe?

UK: Waiting a while...

Japan: Encouraging Growth Result Seen in March Quarter.

EMEA

Emerging markets: A long...

Daily FX Strategy/ EUR/USD forecast update: Bearish profile lowered

Mon, 10 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The dollar remains very much in demand as investors shy away from uncertainties in the two other major liquid currencies of the EUR and the GBP. Despite the mayhem in...

BoE leaves policy unchanged

Sun, 09 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left monetary policy unchanged today (the meeting was moved so as not to clash with last Thursday’s election). Bank Rate remains at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase...

Eurozone rescue package

Sun, 09 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In an unprecedented effort to get ahead of markets and to safeguard the stability of the Eurozone finance ministers agreed on a 500 billion euro Financial Stabilisation mechanism and the IMF will ...

Prophet: 10 May 2010

Sun, 09 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Eurozone: Eurozone rescue package.

US: Employment hopes.

UK: Well anchored.

EMEA

Emerging Europe: Greek contagion strikes EMEA.

...

Daily FX Strategy - Policy response to the crisis: FX implications

Sun, 09 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Strong US data (i.e. Friday’s NFP) together with surging risk aversion saw USD trade its best since April 2009. Expect the former trend to persist this week (i.e. r...

US labour report offers encouragement

Thu, 06 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The April US labour report is looking pretty good with non-farm payrolls up 290,000 in April versus a consensus forecast of 200,000. There were also large upward revisions totalling 121,000. Privat...

German IP surges in March

Thu, 06 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Hibernation ended. German industrial production increased significantly in March, more than offsetting the winter dip. Industrial production was up by 4.0% MoM, from -0.2% in February. The increase...

EA16 underlying price pressures remain muted

Mon, 03 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

March’s producer price inflation figures confirm that underlying domestic price pressures in the Eurozone remain subdued. Annual PPI inflation picked up sharply, from -0.4% in february to 0.9% in...

German retail sales drop in March

Mon, 03 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The German consumption recession continues. March retail sales in Germany did not bring any support for economic growth in the first quarter. Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, retail sale...

Daily Prophet: 4 May 2010

Mon, 03 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: US posts third consecutive trend or higher GDP result.

Greece: Deal done.

EMEA

Emerging Markets: What do C/A numbers tells us about Deve...

Daily FX Strategy - EUR\'s home-grown problem: Sell GBP/CHF

Mon, 03 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: US equities enjoyed their best day for several weeks yesterday (S&P500 +1.3%), buoyed by a rise in the ISM manufacturing survey to its best level in 6yrs. With the Fe...

Daily FX Strategy - Greek exposure: Sell EUR/CAD

Sun, 02 May 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Following the steady hand shown from the FOMC earlier this week attention today in the US turns to the key 1Q GDP release. ING is more optimistic than consensus looki...

Eurozone CPI at 1.5% in April

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

According to a Eurostat flash estimate, Eurozone inflation increased in April to 1.5%, from 1.4% in March. It is the highest level since December 2008. There is no decomposition available, yet, but...

1Q10 US GDP (+3.2%) third consecutive trend or above result

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US GDP for the first quarter of 2010 was recoded at 3.2% (seasonally adjusted annualised rate), just a shade below the consensus expectation, but still an above-trend result (trend is probably abou...

Belgian GDP up 0.1% in Q1

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

After the release of the GDP growth in the US, Belgium is the first Eurozone country to deliver its first quarter growth. The flash estimate of the National Bank of Belgium shows a modest non annua...

UK Macro update - Dicing with Debt

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The UK will experience a massive fiscal consolidation over the next five years, which in itself may cut 1% p.a. off growth. Monetary policy will remain loose to compensate, while sterling will rema...

Daily Prophet: 30 April 2010

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Greece: Relief to arrive in bulk?

US: Another above-trend US GDP result on its way.

Japan: Mixed Data - Production Down, but Household Spending Recovers...

German unemployment drops in April

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Spring revival. German unemployment decreased by a non-seasonally adjusted 162,000 in April. Officially, 3.406 million Germans are currently unemployed. In seasonally-adjusted terms, unemployment d...

EA16 money and credit growth still weak

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The medium-term outlook for Eurozone inflation remains muted. M3, the ECB’s favourite indicator of medium-term inflationary trends, fell by 0.1% in the 12 months to March. The preferred three-mon...

Daily FX Strategy / Fed calm, ECB stressed. Sell EUR/USD

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The Greek situation remains fragile, with all parties agreeing that a package needs to come quickly to quell fears that Greek debt needs to be restructured. Given the...

Daily prophet: 29 April 2010

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: A few teasers from the Fed…

EMEA

Emerging Europe: Greece’s spill-over effect.

Ukraine: Parliament eases requirements on foreign inve...

EA16 economic sentiment defies sovereign turmoil

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The sharper-than-expected increase in Eurozone economic confidence in April contrasts sharply with growing (market) concern that the Greek crisis maybe spreading to other Eurozone economies. The Eu...

Global Economic Calendar: A continental divide

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

It is an extremely busy week in the US starting with 1Q GDP figures, where we are looking for a stronger than consensus growth rate of 3.7% QoQ annualised. Consumer spending has been resilient, whi...

Daily FX Strategy/Brazil to start tightening: 50 or 75bp?

Tue, 27 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Despite suggestions from Eurozone leaders to the contrary, the market is growing ever fearful that the Greek bail-out will require a debt restructuring which will gen...

Prophet: 28 April 2010

Tue, 27 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Conference Board consumer confidence rises in April……

Japan: Surge in Retail Sales.

EMEA

Poland: MPC decision due today.

Hung...

US FOMC - no change to key words - but a few teasers

Tue, 27 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

More eyes were probably focussed on Greece (or Spain after their downgrade) than on the FOMC’s meeting this time. But this was an important meeting – a chance to set the scene before a possible...

German consumer confidence improves

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Spring sprint continues. German consumer confidence is expected to increase next month, according to today’s GfK indicator for May. The index jumped to 3.8, from an upwardly revised 3.4 in April....

US home prices slip in February

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Case-Shiller Composite-20 home price index increased 0.6% YoY in February. This is the first positive YoY-figure since December 2006. Unfortunately, this is all the good news there is to report...

US Conference Board confidence rises in April

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In contrast to weekly confidence surveys, US consumer confidence (as measured by the Conference Board) in April, rose to 57.9 (from 52.3), with rises in the present situation to 28.6 from 25.2, and...

US Fed Preview: The one before the one that matters

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

There is little likelihood of any significant change to the Fed’s current policy stance at this meeting

- Though we are getting very close to that point

- Any policy stance shift is l...

Daily FX Strategy/INR: Further gains to be had

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: With the two day FOMC meeting starting today (decision at 1815GMT tomorrow) 3mth interbank USD Libor rates continue to edge higher, indicating rising Fed rate hike ex...

Prophet: 27 Prophet 2010

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: FOMC Preview.

EMEA

Hungary: Fidesz’s overwhelming victory and election manifesto.

Hungary: NBH cut base rate by 25bp.

Czec...

US new home sales ride the tax credit wave

Sun, 25 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US new home sales jumped 26.9% MoM to 411k (saar). This is the strongest monthly gain on record since 1963. There were marked regional differences, with 4-6% MoM gains in the Midwest and West, and ...

Daily Prophet: 26 April 2010

Sun, 25 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: US new home sales ride the tax credit wave…

US: Signs of positive investment spending.

Japan: Further Loss of Political Support for Hatoyama Gover...

Daily FX Strategy - IMF concern turns squarely to sovereign risk

Sun, 25 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Away from Greece, this week’s FOMC decision certainly has the scope to impact markets heavily. That said our assumption is that, despite indications that internal F...

Prophet: 23 April 2010

Thu, 22 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

UK: Up, but can it last?

Japan: Contagion From Greek Debt – May Come Sooner Than DPJ’s Grand Plan.

Canada: BoC signals June rate hike in Monetary Po...

Daily FX Strategy/Greece: Storm clouds gathering over euro

Thu, 22 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: An intra-day recovery in US equities to leave the S&P500 at its best levels since Sept 2008 highlights that global risk sentiment is still positive. This is further e...

German Ifo continues Spring sprint

Thu, 22 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Up again. The German Ifo index surged again in April as current conditions improved significantly. The headline index increased to 101.6, from 98.2, and is now at its highest level since May 2008. ...

UK GDP disappoints

Thu, 22 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

1Q10 GDP is pretty disappointing, rising only 0.2%QoQ versus market expectations of a 0.4% increase. At this stage we only get the industry breakdown which showed services output rising 0.2% while ...

EA16 composite PMI signals solid growth in Q2

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone’s economic recovery has gained further momentum. According to preliminary estimates, the composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) – a key measure of private sector activity ...

UK retail sales & public finances show improvements

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales for March are a little weaker than expected, rising 0.4%MoM versus expectations of a 0.6% rise. However, the February figure was revised up to 2.5%MoM versus the 2.1% rate initially...

US existing home sales jump 6.8% in March

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US existing home sales jumped 6.8%MoM, in line with expectations. Unfortunately, this strong rebound does not reflect a vigorous housing market recovery. Instead, the rebound probably mostly reflec...

EA16 consumer confidence rises to two-year high

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Consumer spending has proved to be the missing link in the Eurozone recovery story, but the preliminary consumer confidence figures for April raise hopes that this may be about to change. The Europ...

Global Economic Calendar: Extending the period?

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting will be the main highlight of the week. While a rate hike remains a long way off there appears to be a growing divergence of views on the language that the Fed ...

Mixed UK labour data and more hawkish BoE

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK labour data is providing some mixed messages. While the 32.9k drop in the claimant count unemployed in March, following the 40.1k fall in February is positive news on the labour market...

Prophet: 21 April 2010

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Canada: Bank of Canada removes conditional pledge, signalling a June hike…

Germany: New enthusiasm.

EMEA

Ukraine: NBU expects exchange rat...

Daily FX Strategy/HUF: Well supported by BoP but ST weakness still a risk

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: US earnings season continues at a frenzied pace, with bumper results from Apple Inc after the US close set to keep the S&P500 close to its best levels since Oct 2008....

BoC signals a June hike likely

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of Canada has finally given into the reality of its improved economic circumstances and ended the denial of the last few months. Whilst there were no rate hikes at today's BoC meeting...

German ZEW rebounds in April

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Downward adjustment stopped. After six consecutive drops, the German ZEW index increased again in April, reflecting better financial market developments, a weaker euro and an improving economic out...

UK inflation bounces back

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

UK CPI has jumped back up to 3.4% in March versus market expectations of a rise to 3.1% from February’s 3.0% reading. The data suggests that this was a combination of higher fuel prices (petrol p...

Daily FX Strategy/G20/IMF meetings: Too early for bank tax?

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: We are seeing a noticeable set of comments emerging from Europe that the US is exiting the recession more quickly than the Eurozone, justifying this year’s dollar s...

Daily Prophet: 20 April 2010

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

UK: Refusing to die.

Canada: Will the Bank of Canada surrender to the strengthening Canadian economy?

Japan: Considering fiscal sustainability.

Ja...

Daily Prophet: 19 April, 2010

Sun, 18 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Miserable consumers.

US: Housing starts increase as homebuyer tax credit deadline approaches.

EMEA

Ukraine: Ukraine succeeds in negotiat...

Daily FX Strategy/CAD: Parity and far beyond... or not

Sun, 18 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The decision by the SEC to pursue a civil law-suit against Goldman for mis-selling CDOs has hit risk trades around the world. This will no doubt run for several more ...

EA16 core CPI to fall further despite March \"blip\"

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

March's sharp increase in Eurozone headline inflation is mainly an energy and food price story and will do little to alter the benign medium-term inflation outlook. The final CPI reading came ...

US housing starts increase as homebuyer tax credit

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US housing starts increased 1.6%MoM in March. Taking out the volatile multifamily component, single family starts edged down -0.9%MoM. However, the February figure was revised upward, so all in all...

Daily Prophet: 16 April 2010

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: US production stumbles in March, but only a temporary blip.

EMEA

Ukraine:The government hopes to cancel the existing stand-by programme ...

Daily FX Strategy/ GBP/USD: Short squeeze is worth?

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Having climbed to nearly 1.20% at the start of this month (and the highest since end Dec), US 2 year yields have now fallen back to 1%. With the upcoming 27/28 April ...

Michigan Univ US consumer confidence flops in April

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

An appalling result for the latest (April preliminary) University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.

The confidence index was widely expected to rise slightly, following stronger ...

US production stumbles in March, but only a temporary blip

Wed, 14 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US Industrial production in March rose by only 0.1%MoM, slowing from the 0.3% rise in February (and 1.0% in January). But this looks much worse than is actually the case.

All of the sl...

Global Economic Calendar: Prolonging the waiting game

Wed, 14 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Eurozone purchasing managers’ indices may dip a touch this coming week after their recent strong run. They are likely to remain consistent with firm growth. But with confidence likely to take a h...

Daily FX Strategy/ Technology Recovery: Buy SEK/JPY

Wed, 14 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: One of the few positive things that can be said about the dollar is that generally positive risk appetite no longer means the dollar must fall. And that is the story ...

Daily Prophet: 14 April 2010

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Small firm business survey worsens.

US: Further deterioration of the trade deficit.

EMEA

Turkey: CBT kept policy rate constant at 6.5%...

Daily FX Strategy/EM FX: Looking at 3 month total returns

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Growth in Asia and the IT sector are the top stories over the last 24 hours, as Singapore tightens policy after registering 32% QoQ growth in Q1. The MAS in Singapore...

Eurozone industrial recovery continues apace

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

February’s sharp increase in Eurozone industrial production confirms that the recovery in the manufacturing sector remains firmly on track. The 0.9% monthly gain was well above the consensus fore...

US sweet spot continues with low inflation and better sales

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The US investment sweet-spot of growth without inflation or rising interest rates has been given an extended life with the release of lower than expected March inflation numbers, and higher than ex...

Bernanke\'s slip of the tongue... Innocent or a clue?

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Testimony to the Joint Economic Committee was almost uneventful. His prepared text made no reference to rates at all, or to the language used by the Fed, currently “…e...

US trade deficit worsens in February

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The US trade balance worsened in February from -$37.0bn to -$39.7bn which on its own, will reduce the 1Q 10 GDP outcome by about 0.1% (on rounding up) – a fairly trivial result, bearing in mind t...

Daily Prophet: 13 April 2010

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Global: Change to key forecasts.

Canada: The shackles are falling off the economy.

Japan: Weak bank lending reflects low interest margins.

UK: ...

Daily FX Strategy/ Greek package: What\'s it worth to EUR/USD?

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Technically the dollar looks vulnerable. The speculative market remains substantially long dollars, primarily against European currencies, and on Monday USD Index gap...

Eurozone strengthens safety net for Greece

Sun, 11 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Driven by last week’s renewed market speculation and increasing Greek bond yields, the Eurozone countries, yesterday, decided on the technical details of a possible financial support package for ...

Poland - Presidential plane crash - market implications

Sun, 11 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

In the crash of the presidential plane, Polish President Lech Kaczyński, his wife, central bank governor Sławomir Skrzypek, 15 members of the lower house of the parliament, including two deputy h...

Eurozone consumers remain very cautious

Thu, 08 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

February’s sharp fall in Eurozone retail sales confirms that the breeze of recovery is not yet felt in the retail sector. Sales fell by 0.6% on the month (consensus: 0.0%), following on from an u...

German exports surge in February

Thu, 08 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Export-led recovery still alive. German exports increased by 5.1% MoM in February, almost offsetting the sharp 6.5% drop in January. At the same time, imports only increased by 0.2% MoM, from 5.6% ...

Prophet: 9 April 2010

Thu, 08 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Eurozone: ECB press conference – Communication limbo in Frankfurt.

Eurozone: Consumers remain very cautious.

Germany: Hibernation continues in Febru...

Global Economic Calendar: Subtle shifts

Thu, 08 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The global economic outlook is seemingly improving, given the strong run of data seen recently, particularly in the US. As a result, markets are increasingly analysing the language of central banke...

German IP disappoints in February

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Production disappointment. German industrial production remained on hold in February. What’s more disappointing is the downward revision of the January number to a meagre growth of 0.1% MoM, from...

BoE leaves policy unchanged

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left monetary policy unchanged with rates remaining at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Facility kept at £200bn. We continue to believe that rates will remain on hol...

ECB press conference - Communication limbo from Frankfurt

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Of course, there was no news on interest rates. The ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. The more interesting part of the ECB meeting was on the collateral framework a...

Monthly Economic Update: Growth sunshine, policy clouds

Wed, 07 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Signs of sustained recovery have been greeted with enthusiasm in the stock market. But the sunny outlook is clouded for 2011, as fiscal policy looks set to be tightened and banks grapple with tough...

German new orders on hold in February

Tue, 06 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

On hold. German new orders remained unchanged in February, after their impressive increase in January. The January numbers was even revised upwards to 5.1% MoM, from initially 4.3%. In February, fo...

Prophet: 7 April 2010

Tue, 06 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Eurozone: ECB preview – Never a dull moment.

Japan: BoJ Refuses to Recognize Improved Growth Prospects.

UK: Paying down the debt.

EMEA

Daily Prophet: 6 April 2010

Mon, 05 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: US payrolls positive.

EMEA

Russia: Lack of diversification from oil limits sovereign rating upside.

Kazakhstan: Moody’s has ch...

Is it time for banks to abandon their fear of outsourcing?

Mon, 05 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

A critical analysis of payments services in terms of their cost to the business and their value to the customer by Sander Cok, ING Payments & Cash Management Services, published in gtnews in March ...

ECB preview: Never a dull moment

Mon, 05 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

It could have been seen as a non-event as rates are expected to remain on hold for a long time. However, the ECB’s walk on Greek eggshells and the announced changes to the collateral framework ha...

US payrolls positive - tough flattered by temporary effects

Thu, 01 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

US non-farm payrolls increased by 162k MoM (sa) in March. This is the biggest monthly increase since March 2007. However, this figure was flattered by two factors. First, snow in parts of the count...

Global Economic Calendar: Calm before the storm

Thu, 01 Apr 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The week following US non-farm payrolls (due on Friday) is usually a quiet one, and in terms of data releases, this coming week is no exception. But markets could still be in turmoil following what...

German unemployment falls, highlighting Eurozone divergence

Tue, 30 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The number of German unemployed fell a seasonally adjusted 31k in March after an increase of 7k in February. This was better than the consensus forecast, which still pencilled in a further increase...

KOF index rises more than expected in February

Tue, 30 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Switzerland main economic barometer, the Kof Index rose to 1.93, from 1.90 in February, its highest level in more than two years. This follows a rather bullish report from the Kof Institute on Frid...

Soft ADP survey - payrolls still likely to surge

Tue, 30 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The March ADP survey was quite a lot weaker than consensus was expecting, showing a fall of 23K workers, almost the same (-24K) as in February. In contrast, the consensus for March non-farm payroll...

Surprise rise in US January home prices

Mon, 29 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index unexpectedly increased in January, by 0.3%MoM (sa). In YoY-terms, prices decreased -0.7%.

The MoM-rise of the index is surprising. With the fi...

UK savings update: Savings squeeze

Mon, 29 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

The fall in the UK household savings ratio to 7% in 4Q09 is set to continue. With income growth falling back and the aftermath of the banking crisis curbing their borrowing habits, consumers will f...

EA16 economic sentiment hits near-two year high

Sun, 28 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Confidence in the Eurozone economy seems to have been little affected so far by the turmoil over Greece’s public finances. The European Commission’s overall “economic sentiment” indicator (...

German inflation rises more than expected, but core

Sun, 28 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

German annual headline inflation came out at 1.1% in March, after 0.6% in February. HICP annual inflation rose to 1.3% from 0.5% last month. While those figures are clearly above consensus forecast...

Eurozone opens safety net for Greece

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Is this now finally it? Yesterday night, Eurozone leaders cut the Gordian knot and came up with a long-awaited "blueprint" for how to deal with the Greek fiscal crisis. The Eurozone countries have ...

Daily Prophet: 26 March 2010

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Eurozone: Eurozone opens safety net for Greece.

UK: UK retail sales show a 2.1% “blip” in February.

Eurozone: Credit’s up..

Eurozone: Unex...

UK Budget: Alistair\'s Exit Strategy - Keep it Vague

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Ahead of the Budget it was said that the markets wanted detail on where budget cuts in coming years will fall. But laying out the gory detail of budget cuts was always going to be politically unpal...

UK Budget: Goodnight Darling... Thanks for Nothing

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

From a macro-economic perspective, this was a ‘do-nothing’ Budget. The total net impact of Chancellor Darling’s measures on the forthcoming fiscal year was a net “giveaway” of a princely ...

German consumer confidence remains stable

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

German consumer confidence is expected to remain stable next month, according to today’s GfK indicator for April. The index remained unchanged at 3.2. Looking at the March details, German consume...

EA16 net flow of lending to business at 13-month high

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Private sector credit in the Eurozone has expanded more strongly than at any time in over a year, according to the latest ECB report on monetary developments. The stock of bank lending to the priva...

UK retail sales show a 2.1% \"blip\" in Feb

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales in February rose 2.1% on the month. This seemingly impressive rise – the largest since May 2008 - came only by virtue of a massive downward revision to January’s numbers. The da...

Global Economic Calendar: Resolved to \"no resolution\"

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Incredibly, with the Greek financial crisis still rumbling on, the two-day Spring meeting of the European Council, starting today and concluding this Friday, does not even have Greece on the Agenda...

Daily Prophet: 25 March 2010

Thu, 25 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

UK: Budget: Goodnight Darling… Thanks for Nothing.

UK: The trend isn’t the retailers’ friend.

Eurozone: Speeding up.

Germany: Defyin...

German Ifo defies double-dippers

Wed, 24 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Did anyone say double-dip? The German Ifo index surged to 98.1 in March, from 95.2 in February; its highest level since June 2008. The increase was driven by both the current assessment and the exp...

US new home sales still weak in February

Wed, 24 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US new home sales fell 2.2% MoM (SA) in February. Although the January figure was revised upward slightly, this winter now firmly holds the record for fewest new home sales since recording began in...

Daily Prophet: 23 March, 2010

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Obama passes health bill – by 7 votes.

UK: CPI: Past the peak?

Eurozone

Continued caution: Consumer confidence edged up marginally i...

UK inflation heading back to 2%

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

UK headline inflation fell more sharply than expected in February, with CPI down to 3.0%YoY. Last year’s fuel price rises were not repeated, and lower utility bills helped to bring down the headl...

US existing home sales remain tepid

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US existing home sales declined 0.6%MoM in February, in line with expectations. They are now over 20% below their November peak.

Sales in January and February were probably depressed b...

Belgian business confidence increased in March

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Business confidence measured by the National Bank of Belgium increased in March (-3.6 from -7.0 in February) and is now at its highest level since August 2008. Looking at the details of the survey,...

Daily Prophet: 22 March 2010

Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Move to Block Employment of Temporary Workers.

Canada: Canadian core inflation surges to 2.1% YoY in February.

Foreign Exchange: EUR: Red...

Eurozone consumer confidence holds steady in March

Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Consumer confidence in the Eurozone as a whole seems to have been little affected by the ongoing uncertainty about Greece. According to a flash estimate, the European Commission's consumer con...

UK Budget Preview: Corporate salvation for fiscal virtue?

Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The UK Budget on March 24th is going to be more than usually politicised. The media will undoubtedly zoom in on the political impact of the specific measures that will be announced for the coming f...

UK public sector finances come in better than expected

Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The UK public finance numbers are much better than expected with net borrowing coming in at £12.4bn in February while January’s figure was revised down to £0.0 from £4.3bn. This is still the w...

Eurozone export recovery pauses in January

Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

'Double dippers' may take some solace in the disappointing Eurozone trade figures. Exports out of the 16-country region fell 12.8 MoM in January on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis. Due to...

UK: Labour data not as strong as first appears

Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The UK labour report shows that the number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell by 32,300 in February – the biggest drop since November 1997. January data has been revised to a stronger f...

Eurozone core inflation falls to record low

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The further decline in core inflation in February confirms that there is still a disinflationary wind blowing across the Eurozone. Core inflation, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, fell ...

Prophet: 16 March 2010

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Holding tight.

EMEA

Russia: Ruling ‘United Russia’ wins regional elections in all eight regions.

Ukraine: Finance Ministry refutes...

Daily FX Strategy/BoJ: Fresh round of easing to hit the JPY

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: All eyes will be on tonight’s FOMC statement, where consensus expects the Fed to remain committed to low interest rates. If there any changes, they may be slightly ...

US housing starts defying bad weather

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US housing starts fell 5.9% to 575k in February. But most of this drop came from the volatile multifamily component. The more important single family component fell just 0.6%. Given adverse weather...

Fed leaves policy unchanged - extended period reiterated

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Federal Reserve has left monetary policy unchanged and repeated the phrase “economic conditions… are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended per...

German ZEW almost unchanged in March

Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Downward adjustment slows down. The German ZEW index dropped for the sixth consecutive month in March. However, the downward adjustment slowed down, indicating a stabilisation of financial analysts...

EA16 industrial output sees surprise increase

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

January’s sharp increase in industrial production confirms that the manufacturing sector’s recovery is still very much alive. The 1.7% monthly increase was above the consensus forecast of +0.7%...

Global Economic Calendar: Easing tensions

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Greece will be in focus again this week. The Ecofin meeting on 16 March should give the green light to the Greek fiscal package. The statement by the EU’s monetary affairs commissioner, Olli Reh...

US Retail sales defy the snow in February

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US February retail sales rose much more strongly than expected, especially given the assumption that sales would have been wiped out by severe winter weather. But it seems you need more than a succ...

German exports drop sharply in January

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

German exports dropped unexpectedly sharp in January, decreasing by 6.3% MoM, from a 3.3% increase in December. At the same time, imports increased by 6% MoM, from 5% in December. As a consequence,...

French industrial production rebounds in January

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

After an upward revised decrease of 0.2% in December (probably due to bad weather conditions), the French industrial production rebounded sharply in January with a 1.6% MoM increase. On an annual b...

The Italian industrial production rebounded beyond

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

With an above consensus 2.6% MoM increase, the Italian industrial production provided the first hard evidence that 1Q10 economic activity looks set to resume its recovery path. The broad product gr...

Prophet: 10 March 2010

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: More bad news from the small firm sector.

Germany: Industrial recovery continues.

Japan: Private Machinery Orders Fall in January.

EMEA

...

Daily FX Strategy/Fund managers believe USD is cheap

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: G10 FX markets have settled into recent ranges, with investors instead continuing to chase growth and yield alternatives in EM. Asia remains popular, with equity flow...

German IP up by 0.6% MoM in January

Mon, 08 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

German industrial production increased by 0.6% MoM in January, from a revised drop by 1.0% in December. On the year, industrial production grew for the first time since August 2008, by 2.2% from -5...

German new orders skyrocket in January

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

What a start to the New Year. German new orders recovered impressively from their December drop, increasing by 4.3% MoM in January, from -1.6% in December. This was the strongest monthly increase s...

US Payrolls - much more positive than the headline suggests

Fri, 05 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The latest US labour market report was an unexpectedly positive set of data, given the snowstorms (particularly) in the North East region during late January and early February. -36K for the headl...

BoE leaves policy unchanged

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left Bank Rate and the size of the Asset Purchase Facility unchanged, in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee has spent much of the past month explai...

Eurozone recovery still export-led

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The GDP expenditure breakdown for 4Q09 confirms that domestic demand remains the missing link in the Eurozone recovery story. Indeed, consumer spending was unchanged in the final three months of la...

Daily Prophet: 4 March 2010

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: There’s no business like "snow business"…

Japan: Inventory Cycle Close to Bottom.

UK: Biding time.

EMEA

Kazakhstan: NBK expe...

ECB press conference - Phasing out hits speed bump

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

As expected, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. The gentle exit continued with the ECB further phasing out its crisis liquidity measures. After today’s decisions, there r...

US January pending home sales disappoint

Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Us pending home sales fell 7.6% in January, and are now almost 20% under their tax credit-induced October peak. Snowfall in some parts of the US probably depressed pending sales. But snow cannot be...

Eurozone consumer continues to retrench

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The latest monthly decline in Eurozone retail sales is certainly not encouraging, and raises fresh concerns about the strength and sustainability of the recovery in the region. According to prelimi...

UK PMI bounce offers hope on growth

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The UK service sector PMI is incredibly strong, jumping to 58.4 from 54.5, well above the 55.0 consensus. This is the best reading since January 2007 while the new business index rose to 57.5 from ...

German retail sales remain stable in January

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

German consumption surprises. After positive news from the Christmas Shopping season, January retail sales in Germany did not bring the expected downward correction. Adjusted for inflation and seas...

Prophet: 3 March 2010

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Eurozone: ECB preview – Road blocks on the exit lane.

UK: Who to believe?

Canada: Bank of Canada maintains 0.25% target rate.

EME...

Daily FX Strategy/CAD to come on stream

Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: Today kicks-off a busy second half of the week for US macro data, culminating in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Last month’s heavy snow is already assumed to make the...

US ISM dips, bu remains consistent with good growth

Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The ISM manufacturing index has dropped from 58.4 to 56.5 in February. The consensus was 57.9 while the regional indicators, such as the Chicago PMI and Philadelphia Fed index had pointed to the po...

Strong 4Q09 Swiss GDP

Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

This morning’s GDP figures end 2009 on a positive note in Switzerland. Real gross domestic product grew in the fourth quarter of 2009 by 0.7% QoQ thanks to a positive boost from net exports. Howe...

UK data offers hope on growth

Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00:00 +0000

UK data is fairly positive. The manufacturing PMI has dipped modestly to 56.6 from 56.7, but is still at very strong levels. In fact the output level is at its highest since 1996, while export orde...

Daily FX Strategy/UK: Downgrade fears stalk GBP

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: USD Index is near the lower end of this week’s range. After opening sharply lower, due in part to soft initial claims and DGO data, US equities recovered well yeste...

UK GDP revised higher to 0.3%QoQ

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

4Q09 UK GDP has been revised up from 0.1%QoQ to 0.3%, above the consensus expectation of 0.2%. The change was driven by government spending being revised to 1.2% from 0.3% and consumption moving to...

Eurozone core inflation falls back sharply

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

If there is one thing to take away from today's CPI report, it is that the Eurozone remains in the grip of disinflationary pressure.

Our favourite measure of core inflation, which...

US: Regional PMIs point to upside risk for Monday\'s ISM

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Chicago PMI has provided a bit of an upside surprise, coming in at 62.6 for February versus 61.5 in January. We had expected a dip based on the severe weather experienced in the period and the ...

Prophet: 26 February 2010

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Not yet home and dry.

US: Two sides of the same coin.

Japan: Production, Spending Indicators Point to Recovery.

EMEA

Russia: Mi...

Another negative surprise for the US housing market

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US existing home sales unexpectedly decreased 7.2%MoM in January, and are now 22% below their tax credit-induced November peak. Based on preceding pending home sales, we were looking for a small up...

Another negative surprise for the US housing market

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

German CPI drops to 0.4% yoy in February

Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

According to a first estimate based on the results of six German states, German headline inflation dropped in February, with the year-on-year rate at 0.4%, from 0.8% in January. Headline inflation ...

Eurozone economic sentiment holds steady

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The stability in Eurozone economic sentiment in February is somewhat of a relief after the earlier signs of slippage in other confidence measures. The European Commission’s “economic sentiment�...

Eurozone credit growth remains weak

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s money and credit figures serve as a stark reminder that there are still clear downside risks to the outlook for Eurozone inflation, suggesting no hurry for the ECB to unwind policy stimul...

Daily FX Strategy/NOK: Market long but for good reason

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Currency view

USD: The dollar is trading generally firmer today, which seems to have little to do with Bernanke’s testimony yesterday. US yields were generally flat to lower on the sp...

Fed Chairman Bernanke\'s testimony points to stability

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s testimony adds little to the monetary policy debate. He emphasises that “a sustained recovery will depend on continued growth in private-sector final demand for goo...

Surprise plunge in US new home sales

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US new home sales in January further declined to 309k SAAR. Since October 2009 sales have declined a painful 23%. Apparently, awareness of the extended and broadened homebuyer tax credit (that requ...

German labour market defies winter

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Snow-resistant? German unemployment increased by a non-seasonally adjusted 25,900 in February. Officially, 3.64 million Germans are currently unemployed. In seasonally-adjusted terms, however, unem...

Prophet: 25 February 2010

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

US: Bernanke keeps the market guessing.

EMEA

Turkey: Is political risk overpriced in TRY?

Ukraine: New president officially starts his wor...

US durable goods orders bounce, but jobless claims worrying

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US durable goods orders have come in on the stronger side, rising 3.0%MoM in January after an upwardly revised 1.9% reading in December. The consensus reading was 1.5% while December was originally...

Global Economic Calendar: Lurching lower

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

It is a packed week for market-moving data and events, with US payrolls likely leading the charge. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to be a particularly encouraging report with bad weather set to le...

German recovery pause confirmed

Wed, 24 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s second estimate of the German statistical office confirmed what we already knew: the recovery took a break in the fourth quarter. After two quarters with solid growth, German GDP stagnate...

French consumer spending disappoints yet again

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

After a downward revised 1.3% growth in December, consumer spending on manufactured goods fell by 2.7% in January in France. Details reveal that car sales are leading the way with a heavy drop of 1...

German Ifo drops in February

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The harsh winter weather takes its toll as German business confidence dropped for the first time since March 2009. The German Ifo index decreased to 95.2 in February, from 95.8 in January. The decr...

US: House prices continue their gradual recovery

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

House prices fell -3.1%YoY in December, an improvement over the November YoY-figure. This improvement was supported by base effects. But on a seasonally adjusted MoM basis house prices increased as...

US Conference Board report shows sentiment plunge

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Conference Board measure of US consumer confidence has plunged in February to a 10 month low. The 46.0 reading is substantially lower than the 56.5 print seen in January and is well below the 5...

The Fed unexpectedly hikes rates, while CBR expectedly cuts rates

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Source: bne:flash

VTB Capital reports:

The Fed unexpectedly hikes rates, while CBR expectedly cuts. Buying in Russian bonds continues. We are waiting for Alliance Oil price...

Eurozone consumer confidence slips in February

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The recovery in Eurozone consumer confidence is showing signs of faltering. According to a flash estimate, the European Commission's consumer confidence indicator for the 16-country region fel...

Composite PMI flat: Eurozone recovery still on track

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The flash estimate of the Eurozone composite PMI stabilised in February at 53.7, marginally better then consensus expectations. The PMI Manufacturing surged to 54.1, while the PMI services lost fur...

UK retail sales plunge on weather & VAT

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales figures for January are awful. Sales fell 1.8%MoM, the biggest fall since June 2008 and well down on the -0.5% consensus reading. A fall was widely expected given heavy snowfall, wh...

US Inflation pressures weaker than expected

Fri, 19 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US CPI numbers for January show that inflation is very benign. Headline rose 0.2% versus consensus 0.3% while the core rate actually fell 0.1%MoM versus expectations of a 0.1% rise. This leaves ann...

US IP jumps again

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US industrial production has jumped by 0.9%MoM in January versus the 07% consensus expectation while December’s figure has been revised to 0.7% from 0.6%. All the components rose with motor vehic...

Prophet: 17 February 2010

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Developed Markets / Global

Japan: Tertiary Sector Activity Stalls.

UK: BoE relaxed about inflation spike.

Germany: False signals?

EMEA

Turkey: CBT leaves O/N ...

US housing construction shows faint signs of life

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Activity on the housing market seems to show faint signs of life, as the effects of the extended homebuyer tax credit start to kick in. In January, housing starts increased 2.8%MoM to a six month h...

UK Inflation spikes to 3.5%

Tue, 16 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

UK headline CPI for January has come in at 3.5%YoY, in line with market expectations. This means that the BoE Governor will be writing a letter of explanation to the Chancellor outlining what, if a...

German ZEW drops to 45.1 in February

Tue, 16 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Further downward adjustment. The German ZEW index dropped for the fifth consecutive month in February, indicating a further adjustment of financial analysts’ expectations of the economic outlook....

German economy stagnates in 4Q09

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Is the engine stuttering? According to the first estimate by the German agency for statistics, the recovery took a pause in Q4 2009 (0% QoQ), after an increase of 0.7% QoQ in Q3. Compared with the ...

Above consensus growth in France

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

After a (downward) revised 0.2% in 3Q, preliminary numbers indicate that French GDP increased by an above consensus 0.6% QoQ in 4Q. This represents a modest 0.3% YoY drop. The economic recovery con...

US Jan retail sales up 0.5%mom

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US retail sales for January were a little stronger than expected, though this was a mixed bunch of data. The headline sales figure was up 0.5%, and the “core” ex –autos figure up 0.6%. But th...

Michigan confidence and inventories on the softer side

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Despite some reasonable January retail sales data earlier in the day, the February consumer confidence report from the University of Michigan suggests that US consumers continue to be very cautious...

Italian GDP growth turned negative in 4Q09

Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

EA16 4Q09 GDP - more than a "soft patch"?

The disappointing Eurozone growth data for Q4 2009 are a sobering reminder that recovery from financial-crisis-led recessions tends to be slow ...

EU supports Greek budget cuts

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Constructive ambiguity. It has been long-awaited, now the European Union has come up with a statement on Greece. The new president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy, declared that “Euro-...

Bernanke written testimony - no rush to tighten

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Markets have initially responded to the Bernanke written testimony as if it were a further step in the direction of tightening. 2-year yields have risen and the dollar has appreciated. But on caref...

Spain still in recession

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The economic pain in Spain persists. According to a preliminary estimate by INE, real GDP fell by 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2009, confirming an earlier estimate by the Bank of Spain. This marks the sixth cons...

Bank of England\'s very cautious assessment of inflation

Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England’s inflation report was far more downbeat than many will have expected, with the end 2010 GDP forecast about 1 percent lower than forecast back in November. However, we still t...

German exports increase 3% MoM in December

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

At least there is one reliable source of growth. German exports continued their recent upward trend in December, increasing by 3.0% MoM, from 1.1% MoM in November. At the same time, imports increas...

Swiss retail sales

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Some good news from Switzerland! This morning, the increase in the number of unemployed in January appeared to be less than expected and sufficiently low to allow the seasonally adjusted unemployme...

German IP down in December

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

German industrial production dropped sharply by 2.6% MoM in December, from a 0.7% increase in November. On the year, industrial production is down by 7.1%. The drop in industrial production was spr...

US payrolls softens again, but unemployment rate falls

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The US labour report for January is something of a mixed bag. We were right to look for a weaker payrolls figure (-20,000 actual versus consensus of +15,000), but the unemployment rate surprisingly...

German new orders drop in December

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Volatility continues. German new orders dropped significantly in December by 2.3% MoM, from +2.7% in November. This disappointing decline was widely spread across sectors. While domestic orders dro...

BoE unchanged - leaves door open for action if required

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left Bank Rate at 0.5% and decided not to expand its Asset Purchase Facility beyond the £200bn it has already spent. They have left the door open to potential further expan...

ECB press conference: There is only one Mr. Euro

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

It did not come as a surprise: the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. There was no news for ECB watchers interested in the future path of monetary policy but it looked as if th...

Global Economic Calendar: Who to believe?

Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

For several months now we have been concerned that there are conflicting signals from different surveys. Some reports, such as the ISM in the US and the purchasing managers’ indices in Europe are...

Eurozone retail sales disappoint

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s retail sales report is a setback to hopes that the pick-up in consumer confidence would start to feed through into higher spending. According to preliminary data by Eurostat, the volume o...

US ADP survey improves - meaning for payrolls unclear

Wed, 03 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Some analysts would argue that the US ADP employment survey is a better measure of the change in non-farm payrolls than the change in non-farm payrolls itself. And given the recent payrolls volatil...

German retail sales up in December

Tue, 02 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The zig-zag continues. In December, retail sales in Germany, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, increased by 0.8% MoM, after a strong decline of 1.7% in November. On the year, retail sales...

Eurozone pipeline price pressures remain very subdued

Tue, 02 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The latest PPI figures show that there is still a strong disinflationary wind blowing across the Eurozone industrial sector. Producer prices in the 16-country region fell 2.9% (consensus: 3.0%) in ...

New tax credit fails to boost US home sales

Tue, 02 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US pending home sales edged up in December (1.0% MoM). It seems that two opposing forces were at play.

The original first-time homebuyer tax credit was for first-time buyers only and expired...

UK PMI jumps to 15 year high, but housing data slowing

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK data is encouraging with the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rising strongly to 56.7 from 54.6, leaving it at a 15 year high. The market had in fact been looking or a small ...

US Mfg ISM rises to 58.4 in January

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0000

January's Mfg ISM index in the US rose far more than expected to 58.4 from 54.9 the previous month, and is clearly a strong report for the manufacturing sector. But there are a couple of nuanc...

Eurozone inflation muted, unemployment up

Fri, 29 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate the Eurozone’s HICP inflation rose to 1.0% in January, which was still below consensus expectation of a 1.2% year-on-year increase in consumer prices. Thi...

US 4Q09 GDP jumps, but will be hard to repeat

Fri, 29 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US 4Q09 GDP showed growth of 5.7% annualised, well above the 4.7% expected by the market. The breakdown shows that the inventory rebuild story is the main growth driver, contributing 3.4% percentag...

German unemployment increases to 8.2% in January

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The strong winter with heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures has hurt the German labour market. German unemployment increased by a non-seasonally adjusted 342,000 in January. Officially, 3.6 mil...

Eurozone sentiment up in January

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Did anyone say “running out of steam”? The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator (ESI) for the Eurozone just confirmed the ongoing recovery. The ESI continued its upward trend si...

Eurozone loans to the corporate sector continue to plummet

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The ECB’s preferred monetary aggregate M3 fell 0.2% year-on-year in December after a 0.3% contraction in November. The anaemic money growth development is strongly related to the steepness of the...

FOMC statement - minor tweaks only - but Hoenig dissents

Wed, 27 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The majority of the latest FOMC statement is insignificantly different from the December 15/16 statement. This comes as no surprise, since the run of data has been at best mixed, and usually somewh...

Ifo strong in January

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Still going strong. German business confidence increased for the tenth consecutive month in January, reaching a 17-months high. The German Ifo index increased to 95.8 in January, from 94.7 in Decem...

UK out of recession - just....

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s 4Q09 GDP numbers have confirmed that the UK has finally exited recession – but barely. The economy grew 0.1%QoQ versus market expectations of 0.4%. The UK last recorded positive GDP gro...

German consumer confidence drops again

Mon, 25 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Cooling off. German consumer confidence is expected to weaken again, according to today’s GfK indicator for February. The index dropped to 3.2, from a revised 3.4 in January. Looking at the Janua...

UK retail sales eases back GDP and rate expectations

Fri, 22 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The December UK retail sales report has provided a major shock this morning by growing at a very modest 0.3% MoM rate versus market expectations of a 1.1% gain. We had been looking for an even stro...

Belgian Business confidence improve in January

Fri, 22 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The leading indicator of the National Bank of Belgium increased in January (-7.0 from -7.9 in December). Even if the rhythm of progression has diminished, the improvement since March 2009 (from -31...

Eurozone January PMI slips but holds well above 50

Thu, 21 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone economy has entered the New Year with considerable forward momentum. Although its flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) eased for the first time in ten months to 53.6 in J...

The meaning of \'greening\' - Will a clean energy future transform the US economy?

Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

A 'greener' US is unlikely to result in a resurgent economy as some argue, though it need not result in a massive drag on the economy either – subject to nuclear energy playing a key ro...

US housing data mixed,PPI show little inflationary pressure

Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Despite the new, expanded tax credit for home buyers (signed into law Nov 6.), builders are still very cautious to break ground on new homes. In December, housing starts fell 4%MoM. Bad weather pro...

UK CPI surges a full percentage point

Tue, 19 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

UK CPI has jumped to 2.9% in December from 1.9%, well above the consensus forecast of 2.6%. There were broad based increases, which can largely be attributable to the changes in VAT policy. It was ...

German ZEW drops again in January

Tue, 19 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

More realism. The German ZEW index dropped for the fourth consecutive month in January, indicating more realistic expectations of financial analysts on the economic outlook. The ZEW index which mea...

Eurozone core inflation unexpectedly rises

Fri, 15 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Eurozone final headline CPI has risen from November’s 0.5% YoY reading to 0.9% in December, in line with the consensus forecast and the earlier “flash estimate”. The further increase in the h...

US December CPI a little softer than expected

Fri, 15 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US inflation for December has come in a little softer than expected, with the headline rate rising to only 2.7% from 1.8% in November, instead of the expected 2.8%YoY figure. But core CPI was in li...

US consumer confidence falters

Fri, 15 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US consumer confidence remained broadly unchanged in the preliminary January University of Michigan confidence index, with the headline release coming in at 72.8, from 72.5 in December. However, th...

Eurozone industrial production resumes upward path

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

November's gain in Eurozone industrial output confirms that the economic recovery in the 16-country region remains on track. The 1.0% monthly increase was above the consensus forecast of +0.6%...

US Dec retail sales soft as Nov sales revised higher

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

US retail sales for December were much weaker than expected, dropping 0.3%mom, against an expectation for a 0.3%mom gain. Core sales excluding autos were also a little weaker (down 0.2%mom). Howeve...

ECB news conference: Deja vu all over again

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Today's ECB press conference brought with it a great sense of déjà vu. It did not come as a surprise: rates remained on hold and the ECB’s assessment of the economy and the inflation outlo...

German GDP dropped by 5% in 2009

Wed, 13 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

It is a strange habit of the German statistical office to release GDP data for the entire past year before actually publishing fourth quarter data. According to the just released numbers, German GD...

US trade deficit hits 10 month high

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

In November, the US trade deficit widened 9.7%MoM to –US$36.4bn. Exports rose for the 7th month in a row, but were outpaced by imports (+2.6%MoM), where petroleum, consumer goods and capital good...

Strong German export growth continues in November

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

At least one reliable source of growth. German exports continued their recent upward trend in November, increasing by 1.6% MoM, from 1.9% MoM in October. At the same time, imports dropped by 5.9% M...

Eurozone unemployment hits double digits

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone unemployment report for November makes grim reading. Unemployment in the 16-country region rose by a seasonally-adjusted 102,000 in October, causing the unemployment rate to rise from ...

German IP up 0.7% in November

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Picking up again. German industrial production increased by 0.7% MoM in November, from a 1.7% drop in October. On the year, industrial production is still down by 8%. The increase in industrial pro...

Will the real labour market data please stand up?

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

For the second month in a row, the US labour market report was almost the exact opposite of the clear steer from all the other labour market data that had been released in the previous month, which...

German retail sales disappoint in November

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

What a setback. German retail sales dropped significantly in November, diminishing hope that domestic demand can support the recovery. Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings and excluding car s...

EA16 economic sentiment improves but retail sales disappoint

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

EA16 economic sentiment improves but retail sales disappoint The economic mood in the Eurozone continues to brighten. The European Commission’s “economic sentiment” indicator for the 16-count...

German new orders up 0.2% in Nov

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Back on track? German new orders recovered somewhat in November, increasing 0.2% MoM, from a 1.9% drop in October. The impressive rally since March 2009 is continuing, although at a lower pace. The...

Prophet 7 January 2010

Thu, 07 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has left Bank Rate at 0.5% and the Asset Purchase Facility at £200bn. No detailed press release accompanies the decision. Analysts were unanimous ...

Mixed newsflow on UK outlook

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

We have had some mixed newsflow on the UK economy this morning with consumer confidence dropping sharply to 69 from 74. This is the biggest fall since the six point drop in November last year exper...

German labour market remains strong in December

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The sudden onset of winter with heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures has brought a temporary end to the new German job wonder. German unemployment increased by a non-seasonally adjusted 60,100 ...

Eurozone inflation hits 10 month-high

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Eurozone headline CPI has risen from November’s 0.5% YoY reading to 0.9% in December, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate. That is in line with the consensus forecast and the highest reading...

UK data points to firm growth

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The first UK economic readings of the decade are unambiguously strong. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has risen to 54.1 for December versus 51.8 in November and is well above the co...

US Mfg ISM for December registers further gains

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0000

December’s US manufacturing ISM index rose to 55.9 in December, more than 2 full points higher than the November 53.6 figure. The latest numbers are consistent with GDP growth of about 4%. This i...

Further positive news in the US housing market

Wed, 30 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Step by step the US housing market is getting back on its feet. In October, metropolitan house prices, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller composite-20 index, rose 0.4%MoM (adjusted for seasonal ef...

EA16 money data suggest inflation is no threat

Wed, 30 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s money and credit figures confirm that Eurozone inflation is poised to stay subdued over the next two years. As such, the data strengthens our belief that the ECB will maintain a very caut...

Tax credit fails to boost US new home sales

Thu, 24 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

In November, US sales of new homes dropped 11.3%MoM to an annual rate of 355K. The numbers are highly volatile, so it’s best to look at a longer period. Since the trough in March '09, new ho...

ING economists raised their profile further in the Netherlands in 2009

Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Client presentations rise fivefold and media coverage fourfold since 2007

In 2009, ING economists recorded another substantial increase in their profile in the Netherlands, both in the ...

November US existing home sales surge to 2.5yr high

Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

November US existing home sales surged 7.4%MoM to a level of 6.54M (annual rate). Sales have hit the highest level since Feb 2007 as buyers rushed to close deals ahead of the then-expected expirati...

UK GDP revised up

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

UK 3Q09 GDP has been revised up from -0.3% to -0.2% (it was initially reported as -0.4% 2 months ago). This is not as good as the market had hoped – the consensus was -0.1%, but is in line with o...

Final 3Q09 US GDP revised down from 2.8% to 2.2%

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Third quarter 2009 US GDP has been revised down in the final release for this data set (though that does not rule out subsequent revisions in quarters to come). The initial 3.5% growth, which was r...

German consumer confidence weakens

Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Cooling off. German consumer confidence is expected to weaken again, according to today’s GfK indicator for January. The index dropped to 3.3, from a revised 3.6 in December. While the economic o...

UK public finances & lending

Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The UK's public finances have deteriorated further in November, but not as badly as the market had feared. The Public Sector Net Cash Requirement hit £14.7bn, the highest ever November figure...

Ifo surges again in December

Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Unstoppable? German business confidence increased for the ninth consecutive month in December, reaching a 16-months high. The German Ifo index increased to 94.7 in December, from 93.9 in November. ...

Fed continues to toy with markets

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Following the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed funds rate of course remains unchanged, Speculation that the deposit rate might be lifted at this meeting has proved to be just that – speculation. Most...

UK retail sales cast doubt on strength of recovery

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales have fallen sharply in November, providing a major disappointment regarding the economy’s recovery prospects. Rather than rise by 0.5%MoM as the market had expected, sales actuall...

US residential construction rebounds

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

In November, US housing starts rebounded 8.9%MoM, reversing part of the decline in October. Most of the increase is due to the small, erratic multi-family home segment, which surged 62.7%MoM. Singl...

US CPI shows inflation remains non-threatening

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

US headline CPI for November has risen in line with expectations by 0.4%MoM. This leaves the annual rate at 1.8% versus -0.2% last month. In terms of the MoM figures a 3.8% jump in airline fares, a...

EA16 core inflation lowest in nearly 9 years

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Eurozone headline CPI has risen from October’s -0.1% YoY reading to 0.5% in November, according to Eurostat’s final estimate, slightly below the consensus forecast and the earlier “flash esti...

Eurozone maintains recovery momentum

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone economic recovery continues to gather steam. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the 16-country region rose from 53.7 in November to 54.2 in December - the ninth...

US IP up, but outlook remains mixed

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

US industrial production has posted a firm 0.8%MoM rise in November versus consensus expectations of a 0.5% gain. Admittedly October was revised down from +0.1% to 0.0%, but this is still a good fi...

ZEW drops again in December

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Downward correction. The German ZEW index dropped for the third consecutive month in December, indicating more realistic expectations of financial analysts on the economic outlook. The ZEW index wh...

UK CPI jumps to 1.9 from 1.5%

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

UK CPI has risen from October’s 1.5%YoY reading to 1.9% in November, in line with ING’s forecast, but a little above the 1.8% consensus. This is the highest reading since May with fuels and lub...

US Retail sales strength

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

US retail sales for November were stronger than had been expected, in contrast to the softer anecdotal reports from retailers. Online sales helped offset what had been reported as a softer spend pe...

EA16 industrial output slips; employment drops 0.5%

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The marked relapse in industrial production in October is a sobering reminder of the fragility of the economic recovery in the Eurozone. But it is premature to conclude that the industrial recovery...

No surprises form the BoE\'s MPC

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

No surprise that there was no change to policy rates at the BoE’s latest rate setting meeting, with the Bank Rate decision accompanied by confirmation of the asset purchase scheme at the existing...

UK PBR: Holding fire

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Chancellor Darling’s Pre-Budget Report has provided few surprises. The policy initiatives are fiscally neutral with an 0.5pp increase in National Insurance and higher taxes on bankers being offse...

Swiss National Bank leaves rates unchanged

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

This morning, the Swiss National Bank held its quarterly meeting and decided to keep its target for the 3-month CHF Libor unchanged at 0.25% (in the range [0% - 0.75%]). We expect no change in the ...

UK Pre-Budget Report: Darling needs to deliver

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

UK Chancellor, Alistair Darling, will today deliver the Pre-Budget Report. He will update parliament on the government’s projections for the state of public finances and no doubt attempt to clari...

BoC holds rate at 0.25%; expects no change through 1H10

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Bank of Canada has held the overnight target rate at 0.25% and reiterated its pledge to hold rates at this level until post Q210. Once again, the issue of the strong CAD and its negative effect...

German IP drops 1.8% MoM in Oct

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Industrial recovery on halt. German industrial production dropped by 1.8% MoM in October, from 3.1% MoM in September. On the year, industrial production is still down by 12.4%. Looking at the diffe...

German new orders drop 2.1% in Oct

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Taking a break. German new orders dropped by 2.1% MoM in October, from a revised 1.3% MoM increase in September. The impressive rally since March 2009 has come to a temporary halt. The October decr...

New: English outlook on Dutch Industry

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

We are very pleased to present the first English version of the yearly Dutch Industry Outlook. See the Research part of this site for a short description and the downloadable report.

...

EA16 3Q09 GDP confirmed at +0.4%; retail sales disappoint

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The second estimate of third-quarter GDP confirmed that the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% during the three months to September. We have now got the expenditure breakdown, which shows that consu...

ECB keeps rates on hold

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The ECB just decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. This was the less exciting part of today’s meeting, the more exciting part should follow at...

The gentle exit has begun – ECB keeps rates on hold

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

At today’s meeting, the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. According to the ECB, the current level of interest rates is still appropria...

US Nov Non-mfg ISM falls - threat to payrolls

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The important US non-manufacturing ISM index registered a decline to 48.7 from 50.6 in November. This survey has a number of uses. It first provides some indication of current retail strength, and ...

German Oct retail sales up 0.5% MoM

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Finally some signs of life. After two disappointing months, German retail sales rebounded in October. Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings and excluding car sales, German retail sales increas...

The Sun shines on Swiss GDP

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s GDP figures from the Swiss Economic Secretariat confirmed what we already knew: the recession ended in the third quarter in Switzerland. Swiss GDP increased by 0.3% QoQ in the third quart...

German labour market remains strong in November

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

A German job wonder? German unemployment decreased by a non-seasonally adjusted 13,200 in November. Officially, 3.215 million Germans are unemployed, the lowest level since December 2008. In season...

Eurozone unemployment holds at 9.8%

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone unemployment figures for October are not as bad as feared but they still make grim reading. Unemployment in the 16-country region rose by a seasonally-adjusted 134,000 in October, the ...

US Mfg ISM dips, pending home sales rise

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0000

November’s US manufacturing ISM report declined from October, the headline index dropping to 53.6 from 55.7 in October, though this is still consistent with relatively strong manufacturing growth...

EA16 inflation spikes back into positive territory

Mon, 30 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Energy-price base effects have pushed Eurozone inflation back above zero in November and will push it up further in the near term, but inflation prospects for the region remain subdued. This will a...

EA16 economic mood improves but unemployment concerns rise

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The economic mood in the Eurozone continues to improve. The European Commission’s “economic sentiment” indicator for the 16-country region rose from 86.1 in October to 88.8 in November, above...

EA16 money data point to very subdued inflation outlook

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The October money and credit figures confirm that the medium-term outlook for Eurozone inflation remains very subdued. Consequently, the data strengthens the case for the ECB to adopt a very gradua...

German CPI: Turning positive again

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Turning positive again. According to a first estimate based on the results of six German states, German headline inflation returned into positive territory in November, with the year-on-year rate i...

German consumer confidence drops again

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Are German consumers finally giving in? German consumer confidence continued its downward trend as the GfK consumer confidence indicator dropped to 3.7 in December, from 4.0 in November.

...

UK 3Q09 GDP revised up marginally

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

UK 3Q09 GDP has been revised to -0.3%QoQ from the initial -0.4% reading. This pushes the YoY reading to -5.1% from -5.5% in 2Q09. We have now got the expenditure breakdown, which shows that consump...

US new home sales rise surprisingly strong in October

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

In October, US sales of new homes rose 6.2%MoM, well above the consensus forecast (0%MoM). The sales in this report are registered at contract signing. In October, potential buyers were still facin...

German recovery in Q3 confirmed

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s second estimate of the German statistical office confirmed what we already knew: the recovery has accelerated in the third quarter. German GDP increased by 0.7% QoQ in the third quarter o...

Swiss employment data

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

In Switzerland, today’s labour market data show that a consumption-led recovery is not yet in sight. Employment in the third quarter 2009 stabilized at 3.963 million, the level of the last quarte...

Ifo surges again in November

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Powering ahead. German business confidence increased for the eighth consecutive month in November, reaching a 14-month high. The German Ifo index increased to 93.9 in November, from 91.9 in October...

Eurozone flash PMI data point to ongoing recovery

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone recovery continues apace. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the 16-country region rose from 53.0 in October to 53.7 in November - the eight consecutive monthly...

Tax credit pushes US home sales to 32-month high

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

October US existing home sales surged 10.1%MoM to a level of 6.1M (annual rate). Sales have hit the highest level since March 2007 as buyers rushed to close deals ahead of the expected expiration o...

Canadian October Core inflation rose 0.1%MoM (up to 1.8%YoY)

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Oct Canadian headline CPI fell -0.1% MoM% but was up 0.1% YoY. Energy was down -1.9%mom for October, a further fall from -1.0%mom in September. But we expect energy prices to rise YoY as base effec...

Shock rise in core inflation, but housing starts plunge

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

US consumer price inflation is now minus 0.2%YoY, following a 0.3% mom rise. This was a little higher than the market had wanted, but the real shock was in the core figure. Core inflation rose to 1...

UK: emerging from recession, but with awful fiscal numbers

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK data is somewhat mixed. The consumer sector numbers are good with October retail sales up 0.4%MoM and September’s figure revised to +0.4% from flat growth. This leaves the YoY rate a...

UK CPI starts to move higher

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

UK CPI rose a little more than expected to 1.5%YoY in October from September’s reading of 1.1%. Fuels and lubricants provided the main upside thrust with the annual inflation rate of this compone...

EA16 net trade probably added to GDP in Q3

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone September trade figures suggest that the region’s exit from recession in Q3 was to a large extent driven by the external sector.

Eurozone exports expanded by a solid 5.5...

US production posts feeble 0.1% mom increase in October

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

US industrial production has been one of the strongest elements of this, so far, fairly feeble recovery. And so a limp 0.1% mom October increase (consensus expected 0.4%, and the Mfg ISM suggested ...

Good Morning Asia - Economics & Strategy

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

· Slowdown in October industrial production (0.1% MoM vs. cons. 0.4%, prev. 0.6%) was at odds with strong ISM data. The credit for holding the IP growth in positive territory goes to str...

EA16 core inflation unexpectedly holds steady

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Consumer prices in the Eurozone fell by 0.1% in the year to October, according to Eurostat’s final estimate, in line with the consensus. Annual inflation was -0.3% in September. The increase in t...

October US Retail sales 1.4% headline, 0.2% ex -autos

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

In line with some of the softer recent consumer sentiment surveys, October's advance retail sales contains some worrying elements. The headline rise of 1.4%MoM is not at all bad, but follows a...

German Q3 GDP up 0.7% QoQ

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Therapy against superstition. Friday 13th can also be a lucky day. According to the first estimate by the German agency for statistics, GDP increased by 0.7% QoQ, after an upward revision of Q2 to ...

Weak recovery in France

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

French GDP increased by a very modest 0.3 % QoQ in 3Q (the consensus was 0.6%). The details are not available yet. Nevertheless, it seems that the French economic recovery is still rather weak and ...

Italy joined the recovery pack in 3Q09

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

After posting 5 consecutive contractions, the Italian GDP finally expanded by 0.6% in 3Q09 (it contracted by 0.5% in 2Q09), slightly below the consensus. Istat reported that both the industrial and...

Eurozone exits from recession

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

It is official! The Eurozone economy has come out of recession. According to a preliminary estimate by Eurostat, real GDP in the 16-country region grew by 0.4% QoQ in the third quarter, marking the...

U of Mich consumer sentiment suggests consumption stalling

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

November University of Michigan consumer sentiment has come in considerably weaker than expectations, which looked for a modest increase, falling from 70.6 in October to 66.0. This is the second co...

Eurozone industrial output continues its recovery

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

September's further increase in Eurozone industrial production will likely bolster speculation that tomorrow’s Eurozone third-quarter GDP figures could surprise on the upside.

In...

UK: better jobs news, but pay continues to be squeezed

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The UK labour data is reasonably encouraging with the number of people claiming unemployment rising by its smallest amount since April 2008 (12,900 versus expectations of 20,000). Moreover, the Lab...

BoE Inflation Report: strong growth low inflation, low rates

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England’s Inflation Report suggests that officials are looking for a very robust recovery without an inflation threat thus meaning monetary policy will only need to be tightened modes...

German ZEW drops in November

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Dampening expectations. The German ZEW index dropped for the second consecutive month in November, indicating somewhat more realistic expectations of financial analysts on the economic outlook. The...

German exports up 3.8% MoM in September

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Back on track? German exports increased by an impressive 3.8% MoM in September, indicating that the August drop was only a temporary blip. At the same time, imports surged by 5.8% MoM, from 0.5% in...

German IP up by 2.7% MoM in September

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Industrial recovery. German industrial production continued its recovery, increasing by 2.7% MoM in September, from 1.8% in August. On the year, industrial production is still down by 12.9%. Lookin...

German new orders up 0.9% MoM in September

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

German order books are filling further. German new orders increased by 0.9% MoM in September, from a revised 2.1% MoM in August, continuing an impressive rally. Since March 2009, new orders have in...

Canada's October Unemployment figure out at 8.6% (up from 8.4%)

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

October's unemployment rate came out much worse than expected at 8.6%. The consensus was for a figure of 8.5%, only slightly worse than September’s 8.4%. Job losses of 43,200 this month were...

US October payrolls -190K, unemployment rate 10.2%

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

With the US unemployment rate hitting 10.2% in October, the first time since 1983 (and up from 9.8% in September) it is hard to see the Fed, or anyone else for that matter, trying to claim that thi...

Eurozone retail sales remain in the doldrums

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The worse-than-expected retail sales figures for September demonstrate that the breeze of recovery is not yet felt in the retail sector. They also suggest that overall private consumption in the na...

BoE spends a little more

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England left rates unchanged and expanded QE by £25bn to £200bn. Ahead of time economists were favouring a £50bn move following the very disappointing 3QGDP number (-0.4% versus +0.3...

CO2 offset scheme with ING Car Insurance

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

ING is offering customers an opportunity to offset their car's CO2 emissions at a low cost. The scheme is being provided in partnership with Igogreen, who will offset the CO2 emissions by inve...

Carbon Disclosure Project publishes 'Global 500' report

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project) recently released a report covering the largest companies in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series – the 'Global 500'. The companies receive a score ba...

ECB keeps rates unchanged

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The ECB just decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. Obviously, the ECB sits very comfortably in its current wait-and-see position. The strong eur...

Preparing a gentle back-door exit - ECB keeps rates on hold

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

UK services PMI boosts recovery hopes

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The UK service sector PMI, like its manufacturing equivalent released on Monday, has bounced more than expected to its highest level since August 2007. The October figure came in at 56.9 versus 55....

US Non-mfg ISM unexpectedly declines - employment index soft

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The non-manufacturing ISM index has bucked its manufacturing counterpart, and declined in October (the MFG ISM rose from 52.6 to 55.7 on Monday). The headline non-Mfg ISM index fell to 50.6 from 5...

Fed resists temptation to change 'extended period'

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Stepping away from the explosives without lighting the blue touch-paper, the Fed has postponed a front end yield curve sell-off for at least another meeting ...

Swiss PMI lower than expected

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Switzerland’s October PMI came out much weaker than expected this morning, at 54, which is weaker than the September reading. Elsewhere in Europe, PMI’s are increasing quickly and the KOF leadi...

US Mfg ISM rises strongly in October

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Manufacturing in the US made further gains in October, according to the national ISM index, though this was somewhat at odds with many of the regional surveys released in the weeks ahead of the nat...

US pending home sales surge to 33-month high

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0000

US pending home sales have surged to the highest level since Dec/’06. The surge is probably due to buyers rushing to the market to take advantage of the first time home buyer tax credit just ahea...

EA16 inflation rises but remains in negative territory

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Eurozone annual inflation picked up in October, but remained in negative territory at –0.1%, according to a flash estimate by Eurostat, in line with the consensus. Swings in energy prices were be...

KOF index rises in October

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Today’s KOF leading indicator release has brought further relief for the Swiss economy. In October, the indicator improved again from 0.85 in September to 1.45 in October. These are the first pos...

Belgian GDP increased by 0.5% in third quarter

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

After four quarters in a row of negative growth, Belgian GDP increased by 0.5% QoQ in the third quarter of 2009, as the flash estimate of the National Bank of Belgium shows. Positive growth was exp...

EA16 economic sentiment surges in October

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The confidence recovery continues. The European Commission’s “economic sentiment” indicator rose from 82.8 in September to 86.2 in October, well above the 84.4 consensus and a fresh one-year ...

US 3Q09 GDP comes in at 3.5%

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

A slightly better 3Q09 US GDP outcome than consensus expected (3.5% annualised rate, vs 3.2% consensus, ING f = 3.5%) ought to be viewed as driven largely by one-off effects such as the slowdown in...

Eurozone bank lending data puts pressure on ECB

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The latest broad money and credit figures clearly confirm that medium-term prospects for Eurozone inflation remain very subdued, despite the recent signs of economic recovery. As such, the data add...

US Metro home prices rise again

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Step by step the US housing market is getting back on its feet. Surging home sales since the start of the year have pushed the unsold inventory significantly down in recent months and is now helpin...

US confidence fall bodes badly for 4Q09

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence has fallen much more rapidly than expected to leave the headline at 47.7 in October versus 53.4 in October. The consensus forecast was for a read...

UK retail sales disappoint

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales were unchanged in the month of September, a fair bit lower than the 0.5% growth rate expected by the market. Nonetheless the YoY growth rate did improve to 2.4% from 2.2% which refl...

German Ifo at one-year high in October

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Slowing but growing. German business confidence increased for the seventh consecutive month in October. The German Ifo index increased to 91.9 in October, from 91.3 in September and is now at its h...

Eurozone PMI accelerates to 53 in October

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Upside surprise. Another increase in the preliminary PMI data refutes all pessimists and shows that the economy should have continued growing at the start of the fourth quarter. The Eurozone compos...

UK remains in recession, lagging further behind competitors

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK 3Q09 GDP is awful with no positive news within the report. Output contracted by 0.4%QoQ versus expectations of a 0.2% increase that would have marked the end of the recession. This is the sixth ...

BoC holds rate at 0.25%: talks dovish to counter CAD gains

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The BoC have held interest rates at 0.25% and maintained its pledge to keep rates on hold until 2H 2010. Despite improving global economic conditions, “The current strength in the (Canadian) doll...

BoE minutes suggest a mild toning down of dovishness

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The minutes to the Bank of England policy meeting in October show that the committee was unanimous in deciding to keep monetary policy unchanged (Bank rate at 0.50% and £175bn to be spent on asset...

US industrial output jumps again

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US industrial production data for September is much stronger than the market expected, rising 0.7% versus the 0.2% consensus. August was revised up by 0.4 percentage points and July was revised up ...

US consumer confidence slips, reinforcing weaker 4Q09 view

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US University of Michigan consumer confidence for October has disappointed – falling to 69.4 from 73.5 in September (consensus 73.3). It had spiked higher last month reflecting stronger equity ma...

EA16 core inflation back at previous cycle low

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Consumer prices in the Eurozone fell by 0.3% in the year to September, according to Eurostat’s final estimate, in line with the consensus. Annual inflation was -0.2% in July. The drop in the infl...

EA16 core inflation back at previous cycle low

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US CPI - core ticks higher on tobacco

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US CPI is still looking very benign, despite a larger than expected rise in September core inflation. However, this appears to be entirely due to further rises in tobacco prices - which should argu...

UK labour data better than expected, but risks remain

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK labour data is a little firmer than expected. The claimant count unemployed rose 20,800 versus expectations of a 24,500 rise and therefore continues the downward trend in the pace of l...

US auto sales slightly better than expected

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US retail sales are better than expected looking at September alone (-1.5% MoM versus -2.1% expected) but there was a 0.5% downward revision to August so the net impact is that the dollar levels of...

Eurozone IP increases by 0.9% in August

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

This should have been it. With an increase of 0.9% MoM in August and a revised increase of 0.2% MoM in July, Eurozone industrial production should have ended the technical recession in the third qu...

UK inflation falls more than expected

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK headline CPI has fallen far more than expected - dropping to 1.1%YoY from 1.6%. After months of CPI failing to fall as much as economists expected we now have the opposite outcome – consensus ...

ZEW drops in October

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Return of realism. After an impressive rally since the end of last year, the German ZEW index dropped in October. The ZEW index which measures investors’ confidence now stands at 56.0, from 57.7 ...

German exports drop in August

Sun, 11 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

After astonishing increases in June and July, German exports lost some momentum and dropped by 1.8% MoM in August, indicating that a strong third quarter will be harder to reach than expected. At t...

German IP up 1.7% MoM in August

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Finally picking up steam? After an unexpected drop in July, German industrial production returned into the recovery lane, increasing by 1.7% MoM in August. On the year, industrial production is sti...

BoE leaves monetary policy unchanged

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left Bank Rate at 0.5% and left the Asset Purchase Facility Target at £175bn, in line with market expectations. Moreover, talk of the BoE cutting the reserve deposit rate o...

ECB keeps rates unchanged

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB just decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. Despite another sequel of the wait-and-see game, today’s press conference does not necessar...

German new orders up 1.4% MoM in August

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German order books are filling further. After the dramatic declines between 2007 and early 2009, new orders have started an impressive recovery. In August, new manufacturing orders increased by 1.4...

UK manufacturing data take gloss off house & car data

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK manufacturing data is incredibly weak with output falling 1.9% and all 13 categories reporting falling output. July’s 0.9% gain was revised down to 0.7%. The market had been looking for a 0.3%...

EA16 retail sector still in recession

Sun, 04 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The latest Eurozone retail sales data show that the signs of recovery elsewhere in the economy have not yet reached the retail sector.

The volume of retail trade in the 16-country regio...

US non-manufacturing ISM boosts growth hopes

Sun, 04 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

After the disappointment of last week’s manufacturing ISM, the non-manufacturing index for September has provided some better news. It rose to 50.9 from 48.4 therefore showing that the sector is ...

Unambiguously bad US September labour market report

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The latest jobs report for the US makes for bleak reading following 2 months of improvements. With a further 263 thousand jobs lost in September, this is the worst month for employment losses since...

Romanian government could collapse today

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Source: bne:flash

Our correspondent in Bucharest reports that the Romanian government is on the verge of collapse, which could happen today, possibily in the next few hours. He reports:...

German retail sales drop in August

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Still no joy of spending. After a strong July reading, German retail sales dropped significantly in August, denting hope that there is spending life after the car scrap scheme. Adjusted for inflati...

UK manufacturing PMI disappoints, but credit conditions up

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK manufacturing PMI has disappointed, slipping further into contraction territory at 49.5 for September versus 49.7 in August. The market had been expecting a move back above 50, signalling ex...

Eurozone unemployment edges up to 9.6%

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Eurozone unemployment has continued to rise, with the number of people out of work increasing by a seasonally adjusted 165,000 in August. This caused the unemployment rate to rise to 9.6% from a re...

Romania - Ruling coalition collapses

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Source: bne:flash

Political machinations continue in Romania, with the Social Democrats (PSD) appearing this morning to walk out of the ruling coalition with the Democrat Liberal Party ...

US Sept Mfg ISM - more data dips in September

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The US Manufacturing ISM index for September came in weaker than expected at 52.6, down from 52.9 in August. This is in contrast to the largely positive readings form the regional ISMs earlier in ...

Eurozone inflation slips to -0.3% in September

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Consumer prices in the 16-country region fell by 0.3% in the year to September, according to a flash estimate by Eurostat. That is below the consensus forecast for an unchanged reading of -0.2%, bu...

German unemployment drops in September

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Still going strong. German unemployment decreased by a non-seasonally adjusted 125,100 in September. Officially, 3.346 million Germans are unemployed, the lowest level since December 2008. In seaso...

EA16 economic sentiment continues to improve

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

September's increase in Eurozone economic sentiment adds to mounting evidence that the economy will probably emerge from recession in the third quarter. The rise from 80.6 to 82.8 – the high...

German CPI turns negative again in September

Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

While Germany is still assessing the outcome of yesterday’s election, macro-economic business continues as usual. According to a first estimate based on the results of six German states, German h...

German consumer confidence continues to improve

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Are Germans becoming a bunch of happy-go-luckies? German consumer confidence continues its impressive upward trend over the last year as the GfK consumer confidence indicator increased to 4.3 in Oc...

Eurozone broad money and lending growth continue to weaken

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The latest euro-zone broad money and credit figures are a timely reminder that the Eurozone is in a protracted period of low inflation, and that any fears over a liquidity-led surge in inflation ar...

German Ifo continues upward trend in September

Wed, 23 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German business confidence increased for the sixth consecutive month in September. The German Ifo index increased to 91.3 in September, from 90.5 in August and is now at its highest level since Oct...

Eurozone PMI data confirm end of recession

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The further increase in the composite purchasing managers index (PMI) in September sweeps away any remaining doubts that the Eurozone economy will emerge from recession in the current third quarter...

Belgian Business confidence improves in September

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The leading indicator of the National Bank of Belgium increased in September (-17.8) for the sixth month in a row. But looking to the details of the survey, the picture seems to be less positive. B...

Fed statement - little changed on balance

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Federal Reserve meeting has made only modest changes to the statement accompanying their decision not to change rates from the current 0-25% range – but let’s face it, the Fed were never go...

Eurozone trade surplus widens sharply

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone July trade figures raises the likelihood that the Eurozone economy will emerge from recession in the third quarter.

The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus widened sharply t...

US housing starts rise to 9m high

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In August, US housing starts rose 1.5%MoM to 589K. Building permits increased further too (2.7% to 579K). The rise is entirely due to a surge in the very volatile multi-family homes segment where s...

SNB Rate decision

Wed, 16 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today, the Swiss National Bank held its quarterly meeting and decided to keep its main target for the 3M Libor unchanged. This was widely expected. The SNB has indeed just reached its objective as ...

Eurozone core inflation will fall further

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The trough in Eurozone inflation is probably behind. Consumer prices in the 16-country region fell by 0.2% in the year to August, according to Eurostat’s final estimate. Annual inflation was -0.7...

US inflation rate turns less negative, core still falling

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US inflation came in a touch higher than expected in August, with the headline inflation rate moving up from -2.1%YoY in July to -1.5%. A rise in the inflation rate was inevitable as base effects f...

US August production rises on \'clunker\' subsidy

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US industrial production rose 0.8%mom in August, and the July figure was revised up to 1.0% from the earlier 0.5% estimate. But “cash-for-clunkers” played a big part in this stronger output dat...

German ZEW increases further in September

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The good news show continues. After the impressive jump in August, the German ZEW index increased again in September, although at a much slower pace. The ZEW index which measures investors’ confi...

Strong US August Retail sales and manufacturing data

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

No comfort for the bears in today’s US data release, with inflation and activity data all higher than expected. Admittedly, the “cash for clunkers” related auto sales in August accounted for ...

EA16 output slips in July; Q2 job shedding slows

Sun, 13 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone industrial production figures for July are slightly disappointing and highlight that the recovery in the 16-country region is on shaky ground. The 0.3% monthly drop was below the conse...

US consumer sentiment stronger than expected

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence has risen more than expected in September, with the headline index rising from 65.7 to 70.2. This was more than we had been expecting, as ot...

BoE leaves policy unchanged

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% whilst also maintaining the size of its Asset Purchase Facility at £1.75bn. There had been talk of the BoE adjusting the interest rate pai...

Temporary worsening of US trade deficit in July

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In July, the US trade deficit widened for the second month in a row to –US$32bn (+16.3%MoM). The trend is likely to be reversed soon though. The boosts to imports are temporary and will soon fade...

German exports rise again in July

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The recovery continues. After an astonishing increase in June, German exports maintained the momentum and increased by 2.3% MoM in July, adding to recent signs that the third quarter will be a very...

UK IP suggests an end to recession in 3Q09

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Very strong UK industrial production data is providing a further boost to the view that the UK is exiting the technical definition of recession. Manufacturing output jumped 0.9% in July after a 0.6...

German IP drops in July

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The recovery remains gradual. After an unprecedented collapse since last summer, German industrial production is only slowly stabilising. In July, German industrial production dropped by 0.9%, afte...

German new orders increase in July

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German order books are filling again. After the dramatic declines between 2007 and early 2009, new orders have started a fragile recovery. In July, new manufacturing orders increased by 3.5% MoM, c...

US Jobs report shows 216K fall, unemployment rate now 9.7%

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The US jobs report painted a very mixed picture in August, with the headline figure for employment (non-farm payrolls) showing another 216 thousand jobs lost in August. This was better than in July...

ECB keeps rates on hold

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB just decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. This was widely expected. Any interesting news needs to come from the press conference.

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UK: Services PMI offers renewed encouragement on economic

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK services sector PMI has diminished some of the disappointment from the weak manufacturing equivalent seen earlier this week. Today’s report shows the service sector expanding at a faster r...

Eurozone growth decline in Q2 confirmed

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s second estimate confirmed that the Eurozone economy shrunk by 0.1% in Q2. The pace of economic contraction has clearly slowed down from Q1’s sharp decline by 2.5%, giving hope that the ...

Prudence and caution in Frankfurt

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. According to the ECB, the current level of interest rates is appropriate and inflation expectation...

July German Retail Sales rise 0.7%mom

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

After two months of decline, German retail sales finally increased again in July. Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings and excluding car sales, German retail sales increased by 0.7% MoM in Ju...

Swiss PMI above 50 for first time in 12M

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Switzerland is starting to recover from its worst recession since the Second World War. A V-shaped recovery seems on its way as the PMI data showed this morning. Indeed, the Swiss PMI rose by 6 poi...

German unemployment rate unchanged at 8.3% in August

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German unemployment increased by a non-seasonally adjusted 9,100 in August. Officially, 3.472 million Germans are unemployed. This increase was less than normal during the summer as in seasonally-a...

UK data provides short-term disappointment

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK macro data is very disappointing. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has fallen to 49.7 from 50.2 versus expectations of a rise to 51.1 with broad falls throughout the comp...

Eurozone inflation at -0.2% in August

Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, Eurozone headline inflation came in at –0.2% in August, after an all-time low of -0.7% in July.

For the time being, headline inflation shoul...

Eurozone economic sentiment improves in August

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Hopes for recovery confirmed. The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Eurozone continued its upward trend and increased to 80.6 in August, from 76 in July. After the fifth ...

Swiss lead surveys continue to improve

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer registered its largest increase since the series began in 1991.

After reaching an all time low of -1.83 in April, the indicator returned in A...

German inflation at zero in August

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

According to a first estimate based on the results of six German states, German headline inflation left negative territory in August with the year-on-year rate increasing to 0.0%, from -0.5% in Jul...

Eurozone credit growth slows in July

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The credit squeeze continues. Today’s numbers on monetary developments in the Eurozone show a further slowing of M3 growth and private sector credit growth. Annual growth in the broadest monetary...

German Ifo increases in August

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German business confidence increased for the fifth consecutive month in August. The German Ifo index increased to 90.5 in August, from 87.3 in July; the strongest monthly increase since July 1996. ...

New home sales-US housing cycle turning

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

More evidence that the US housing market is rising from the ashes. In July, new home sales rose 9.6% to a 10-month high of 433K. Revisions to previous months were large (+34k), so this is a very go...

End of German recession confirmed

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s second estimate of the German statistical office confirmed what we already knew, still it is balm for the soul: German GDP increased by 0.3% QoQ in the second quarter of 2009. This is not...

US housing & confidence data offers more positives

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Conference Board measure of US consumer confidence has risen more than expected in August to stand at 54.1 versus 47.4 previously. This index has fallen for the past couple of months and today�...

Canadian retail sales - another strong rise in June

Sun, 23 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Canadian retail sales experienced another strong monthly gain in June, rising 1.0% MoM against consensus expectations for a mild 0.2% rise. The gains in retail sales were made across the board with...

Eurozone PMI at 50 in August

Thu, 20 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

More food for optimism. The preliminary PMI data shows that the Eurozone economy is approaching expansionary territory. The Eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index rose to 50 in August, fro...

US home sales push back above pre-Lehman levels

Thu, 20 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US existing home sales have finally pushed back above the pre-Lehman levels. In July, sales surged 7.2%MoM to a 23–month high of 5.24M (annual rate). There is little doubt now that what we see is...

UK: encouraging household data, but companies & gov struggle

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Retail sales are better than expected, rising 0.4%MoM in July versus the 0.2% consensus expectation while historical numbers have also been revised higher. This leaves the YoY rate up at 3.3% - the...

BoE split - Governor wanted to do more

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The minutes to the August Bank of England policy meeting show that BoE Governor King was outvoted for only the third time since he took charge. He, along with David Miles and Tim Besley wanted to e...

UK CPI fails to fall as expected

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK CPI for July continues to highlight how sticky inflation is in the UK. It was unchanged on the month which leaves the YoY rate at 1.8%, the same as in June, versus expectations of a drop to 1.5%...

German ZEW at three-year high in August

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Ecstatic joy? After a temporary blip in July, the German ZEW index picked steam again in August. The ZEW index which measures investors’ confidence now stands at 56.1, from 39.5 in July; this is ...

July US housing starts report better than it seems

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In July, US housing starts fell 1%MoM to 581K, building permits declined too (-1.8% to 560K). The surprise drop is entirely due to a correction in the very volatile multi-family homes segment where...

US industrial production rises for first time since October

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US industrial production rose 0.5%MoM in July, a touch above the 0.4% expected by the markets. There were also some minor upwards revisions to the previous four months of data. Manufacturing jumped...

Eurozone GDP contracted only slightly in Q2

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The pace of economic contraction in the Eurozone has slowed much more sharply than expected, thanks to an unforeseen expansion in the region’s two largest economies, Germany and France. According...

US retail sales disappoints

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The July retail sales report is a major disappointment. Rather than rising 0.8% as the consensus anticipated, it actually fell 0.1%. Cash for clunkers did boost auto sales by 2.8%MoM, but gasoline ...

UK: Sharp falls in employment support BoE action

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK labour market data is a little worrying. The claimant count definition of unemployment used by government has risen 24,900 in July (consensus 28,000), which pushed the unemployment rat...

Monthly economics update call- Tomorrow 11:00BST

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

You are invited to join a conference call tomorrow (13 August) at 1200 CET (1100 BST) with the research team to listen to our new macroeconomic and market forecasts. The team will give a 20-30 minu...

EA16 production data highlight downside GDP risk

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone industrial production data for June are disappointing and imply downside risk to our -0.4% QoQ forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter (due out tomorrow). The 0.6% monthly fall w...

US ex-oil trade deficit contracts to 10-year low

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In June, the US trade deficit widened for the third month in a row to –US$27bn (+4%MoM). Exports rose US$2.4bn to a 4-month high, but imports increased even more (US$3.5bn). While the numbers su...

Fed\'s guarded optimism - QE decisions deferred

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Fed has kept the 0-0.25% target range for the Fed funds rate and will continue to purchase $1.25trn of agency mortgage backed securities and up to $200bn of agency debt by the end of the year. ...

Swiss Unemployment rises again in July

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Swiss unemployment rose from 3.8% to 3.9% in July. The unemployment rate has not been this high since 2003 when it peaked at 4%. This time, unemployment is more likely to keep rising towards levels...

Italy still in recession, but contraction pace softens

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In 2Q09 Italian GDP contracted by 0.5% adown from a revised -2.7% in 1Q. No big surprise, then, with industry, services and agriculture all providing a negative contribution to value added growth. ...

Very positive US labour market data for July

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

A very positive labour market report for the US in July, with both a decent improvement in the payrolls figures, and a fall in the unemployment rate. There was also some better hours worked data. I...

BoE offers more stimulus

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has voted to leave interest rates unchanged, but has chosen to increase its asset purchases by £50bn to £175bn. Ahead of time analysts were split on whether the BoE would take...

ECB decision - no change to rates

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

As expected the ECB has left its main interest rate stable at 1%. Markets will now focus on the press statement and the Q&A session. Points of interest include a possible upgrade of the growth outl...

A glimmer of optimism at the ECB

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

With turmoil on the markets having all but subsided and more indications of a recovery appearing, the ECB might as well have skipped this meeting, as there was little reason to change course now. A...

EA16 retail sales disappoint, overall spending still up

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The worse-than-expected retail sales figures for June confirm that concerns about income and job prospects continue to weigh heavily on high street spending. Nonetheless, overall private consumptio...

EU16 producer prices rise in June

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

EU16 producer prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in June on the back of higher oil prices after having stabilised in May. The outcome was slightly above consensus. That said, year-on-year the pace of ...

US savings fall back, as govt transfers decline

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US June personal income and spending data have shed more light on the unexpectedly weak 1.2% decline in consumption reported in the recent 2Q09 GDP figures. But whilst personal incomes fell 1.3% in...

US pending home sales hit two-year high

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The US housing market has taken another big step in the right direction. In June, the pending home sales index rose 3.6%MoM. The 5th increase in row brought the index gauging the number of signed s...

UK data fuels recovery hopes

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s UK data has further boosted optimism on the prospect of recovery. Halifax house prices rose 1.1%MoM, backing up the Nationwide survey while consumer confidence rose for the fourth straigh...

UK manufacturing PMI adds to recovery hopes

Sun, 02 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK manufacturing PMI has risen sharply and is now in expansion territory. The July reading has come in at 50.8 versus 47.4 in June and is well above the consensus 47.7 reading. This is the highest ...

US July Mfg ISM rises strongly across the board

Sun, 02 Aug 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The July US Manufacturing ISM came in a lot stronger than the consensus estimate, rising to 48.9 from 44.8. With the ISM now unambiguously in growth territory, we would be surprised if US productio...

US GDP falls 1.0% in 2Q09, drastic downgrades to history

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US GDP for 2Q09 shrank less than had been expected by the consensus of forecasters, dropping only 1.0%QoQ (saar) (ING f -0.4%). But the data is massively disrupted by revisions, as the BEA has ado...

US house price declines slow,but confidence disappoints

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

For the first time in almost three years, metropolitan house prices have increased from the previous month. In May, the S&P/Case-Shiller composite-20 index rose 0.1%MoM. Prices usually increase in ...

UK lending data highlight weak household sector

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK lending data is weaker than expected, which again highlights the lack of credit availability in the economy and the likelihood of a muted recovery. Total net lending increased by £414mn in June...

US June Durable goods - less bad, in parts

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US durable goods orders is one of those statistics that often make the big-picture less, rather than more clear. The June release can arguably claim to do that, with a weak (-2.5%mom) headline, but...

German inflation figures silence talks on exit strategies

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German preliminary HICP year-on-year inflation declined to -0.6% in July from 0% in June, thereby undershooting the consensus estimate for a 0.4% negative inflation figure. On a monthly basis, cons...

EA16 sentiment rises but deflation pressures intensify

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

July’s sharper-than-expected increase in economic sentiment adds to evidence that the Eurozone recession is losing steam, and will fuel hopes that that the economy may reach a floor later this ye...

US new home sales surge to 7-month high

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In June, new home sales rose 11% to a 7-month high of 384K. Revisions to previous months were small (-5k). The monthly numbers are very volatile, but three month-on-month increases in a row leave r...

EA16 money and credit growth continue to trend lower

Sun, 26 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB’s latest report on monetary developments shows that M3 and private-sector credit growth in the Eurozone continued to trend lower in June. This strengthens our belief that inflation will c...

Ifo continues upward trend in July

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German business confidence increased for the fourth consecutive month in July. The German Ifo index increased to 87.3 in July, from 85.9 in June. Both expectations and the current assessment improv...

Eurozone July PMI data raise end-of-recession hopes

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The preliminary PMI data for July provide further confirmation that the recession in the Eurozone is easing, and will raise hopes that activity in the 16-country region may bottom out later this ye...

UK 2Q09 GDP down 0.8%QoQ

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK 2Q09 GDP came in worse than many had been expecting, especially following yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales figures. At -0.8%, the outcome was almost twice as bad as the consensu...

US existing home sales hit 8-month high

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Life is flowing back into the US housing market. June US existing home sales rose 3.6%MoM to an 8-month high of 4.89M. The May number was revised down to 4.72M. The number of newly signed contracts...

BoC change their GDP forecasts

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of Canada decided to keep rates on hold at 0.25% and confirmed their intention to do so until the second quarter of 2010, conditional on the inflation outlook.

In the press st...

Canadian inflation turns negative

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Canadian CPI was released bang on consensus expectations with the monthly rise of 0.3% in the headline figure causing the year-on-year rate to dip into negative territory for the first time since 1...

ZEW index declines in July

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Returning realism? After eight consecutive increases, the German ZEW index declined in July. The ZEW index which measures investors’ confidence now stands at 39.5, from 44.8 in June. Last week’...

EA16 industrial output - first monthly rise since August

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The signs of improvement evident in Eurozone survey data in recent months are beginning to show up in the hard data economic data. Industrial output in the 16-country region expanded by 0.5% on a m...

Monthly Economics Update call - Today, 10:00 BST

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Invitation to today’s monthly economics forecast update call: G3, UK and China You are invited to join a conference call today (13 July) at 1100 CET (1000 BST) with the research team to listen to...

EA16 core inflation falls further

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The final June reading for Eurozone inflation has come in as expected at -0.1% versus 0.0% in May. That is the lowest inflation rate for the 16 countries sharing the euro in more than 50 years. The...

Monthly economics update call - Monday 13th July

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Invitation to next Monday’s monthly economics forecast update call: G3, UK and China You are invited to join a conference call next Monday (13 July) at 1100 CET (1000 BST) with the research team ...

July Michigan sentiment takes a dive

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Consumer sentiment according to the preliminary Michigan survey for July has fallen more than the consensus expectation (70.0) to 64.6 (ING f 65.0), down from 70.8 the previous month. This is the f...

German exports slightly up in May

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German exports slightly recover. After a disappointing decline in April, German exports increased by 0.3% MoM in May, adding to recent signs that the economy is stabilising. At the same time, impor...

BoE leaves policy rate & APF unchanged

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has kept its Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5% and has also voted to continue with its programme of asset purchases totalling £125bn. Most analyst, ourselves, included had expected t...

German IP surges in May

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Looking for the bottom? After an unprecedented collapse since last summer, German industrial production seems to get some fresh air. In May, German industrial production increased by 3.7%, after a ...

UK manufactruing disappoints

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

There has been a surprise fall in UK manufacturing output in May while some of the historical data has been revised lower, which will hit estimates for 2Q GDP. Output dropped 0.5% MoM while April ...

German new orders up in May

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Is this the turn for the better? German new orders increased in May by 4.4% MoM but are still more than 30% down on the year. After the dramatic declines since end-2007, new orders have started a f...

US ISM non-manufacturing improves more than expected

Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The US ISM non-manufacturing index has risen three points to 47.0 in June versus the 46.0 consensus forecast. There were positive developments throughout the report with business activity up at 49....

UK service data healthy, but ongoing consumer spending woes

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK service sector PMI has dropped for the first time since November (51.6 versus 51.7 and 52.0 consensus), but remains above the break even 50 level that indicates economic expansion. The new b...

US ISM signals positive GDP growth - how sustainable though?

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The June reading for ISM manufacturing is pretty much in line with expectations at 44.8 versus 42.8 in June. This is the best reading since last August while the production component jumped to 52.5...

Eurozone unemployment continues to surge

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

May’s sharp increase in Eurozone unemployment demonstrates that the “green shoots of recovery” are not yet showing up in the labour market. The seasonally adjusted increase of 385,000 in the ...

ECB keeps rates unchanged

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB just decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. After the rate cut in May and the non-standard measures in June, the wait-and-see game has no...

US payrolls disappoints - unemp rate up to 9.5%

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The June US labour report is worse than expected with payrolls falling 467,000 (consensus -367,000) and the average annual rate for hourly earnings dropping to 2.7% from 3%. The average workweek al...

ECB policy set to cruise control

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:00:00 +0000

As widely expected, the ECB today decided to keep interest rates on hold. According to the ECB, the world has not changed since the June meeting. The economy remains weak and will only gradually st...

German retail sales up in May

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Are Germans finally spending it? Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings and excluding car sales, German retail sales increased by 0.4% MoM in May, after a 0.5% increase in April. German retail ...

UK manufacturing PMI boosts hopes of recession exit

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK manufacturing sector’s purchasing managers’ index has further boosted hopes that the UK will soon exit technical recession. The headline index rose to 47.0 from 45.4 in May (consensus 46...

German unemployment at 8.3% in June

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Another summer breeze for the German labour market? German unemployment decreased by a non-seasonally adjusted 48,800 in June. Officially, 3.410 million Germans are unemployed, the lowest level sin...

UK GDP revised sharply lower, but outlook is much brighter

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

1Q09 GDP revisions have provided a major surprise. Initially reported as a 1.9%QoQ fall, changes to the methodology of calculating construction output cut an extra 0.25% off output, while lower ser...

EA16 inflation turns negative; M3 growth plunges

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today's inflation and monetary data confirm that the ECB would be well advised not to slam the door shut on any further monetary stimulus.

Eurozone inflation turned negative in Jun...

US house price decline shifts into lower gear

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In April, the pace of US house price declines has slowed substantially. In month-on-month terms, prices in 10 US metropolitan areas fell at the slowest pace in 10 months (-1%MoM seasonally-adjusted...

US data offers mixed pictures on recovery stroy

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

We've had a bit of a mixed bag on the US data front today with the Chicago PMI rising strongly, which offers support to out view that we will get a 44.0+ figure for the ISM manufacturing index...

EA16 economic sentiment rises more than expected

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

June's sharper-than-expected increase in economic sentiment adds to growing evidence that the Eurozone recession has shifted into lower gear. But with economic sentiment remaining firmly in co...

German CPI at 0.1% YoY in June

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Still not negative. According to a first estimate based on the results of six German states, German headline inflation increased to 0.1% YoY, from 0.0% in May. Headline inflation based on the harmo...

EA16 new industrial orders fall more than expected

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

If you play “green shoot” game, it is better to avoid the hard data. Indeed, the April industrial orders figures serve as a timely reminder that economic activity in the 16-country region is st...

Swiss National Bank intervenes again to weaken the CHF

Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Since March 2009, the Swiss National Bank has been conducting Fx interventions, for the first time since 1992. Today, a new intervention brought the EUR/CHF back above 1.52. We believe that the Ban...

Fed leaves rates and QE unchanged

Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Federal Reserve has left the Fed funds target rate range unchanged at 0 to 0.25%. There is also no change to the Fed’s quantitative easing policies. In terms of the accompanying statement the...

German consumer confidence improves again

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The bright spot continues glowing. German consumers are holding on well as the GfK consumer confidence indicator increased to 2.9 in July, from 2.6 in June. The increase was widely spread across al...

Eurozone PMI improves in June

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The recession in the Eurozone is easing as confidence indicators have clearly resumed their upward trend of the last months. The composite purchasing managers index (PMI) for the Eurozone increased...

Belgian Business confidence increased again in June

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The leading indicator of the National Bank of Belgium increased again in June (-23.6) for the third month in a row, and reached its highest level since December 2008. Moreover, the Belgium business...

May US existing home sales point at bottom in housing market

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Talk of a bottom in the US housing market is getting stronger by the month. May US existing home sales rose 2.4%MoM to a 7-month high of 4.77M (annual rate). The number of newly signed contracts ha...

German Ifo increases again

Sun, 21 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Fragile stabilisation. German business confidence increased for the third consecutive month. The German Ifo index increased to 85.9 in June, from 84.2 in May. This is the highest level since Decemb...

SNB Rate decision

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

This morning, the Swiss National Bank decided to keep its target for the 3-month CHF Libor (0.25%) unchanged. As this was widely expected, attention was focused on further announcements of unconven...

UK retail sales and public borrowing disappoint

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales have come in well below market expectations, falling 0.6% in May versus the consensus forecast of a 0.3% increase. We had suspected that the market was being overly optimistic (ING�...

UK unemployment better than feared, BoE in no hurry to hike

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK labour market data has offered further evidence to suggest that the UK economy could be amongst the first major economies to exit a technical recession. Headline earnings rose 0.8% 3M/YoY% v...

US inflation falls further

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US CPI has come in significantly below market expectations in May at 0.1% (consensus 0.3%). This has dragged the annual inflation rate down to -1.3%, its lowest rate since 1950. The core rate also ...

UK CPI fails to fall as much as expected

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK inflation is pretty disappointing, only falling to 2.2% in May from 2.3% in April versus market expectations of 2%. Alcohol and tobacco tax changes were responsible for the largest upward contri...

German ZEW continues upward trend in June

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German investors are becoming almost euphoric. For the eighth month in a row, the German ZEW index showed an improvement in investors’ confidence. The ZEW increased to 44.8 in June, from 31.1 in ...

EU16 core inflation resumes downward trend

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The final May reading for Eurozone inflation has come in as expected at 0.0% versus 0.6% in April. That is the lowest rate since comparable records began in 1991. The drop in inflation was broadly ...

US residential building activity jumps 17%

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In May, US housing starts surged 17%MoM to 532K (4-month high), reversing most of the decline in the previous two months. Building permits increased too (+4.0%MoM). Excluding the volatile multi-fam...

US industry disappoints, new low for capacity utilisation

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US industrial production has fallen more than expected in May – down 1.1%MoM while April was revised down to -0.7% from -0.5%. Autos were a big drag, falling 7.9% while mining fell 2.1%. Most oth...

EU16 job shedding accelerates

Sun, 14 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The sharp contraction in Eurozone employment in 1Q09 serves as a stark reminder that wage growth in the 16-country region will likely be very muted next year. Employment fell by 0.8% QoQ after a re...

Eurozone IP drops further in April

Thu, 11 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Not touching bottom, yet. Industrial production in the Eurozone continued its free fall, dropping by 1.9% MoM in April, from a revised -1.4% in March. Production has plunged 21.6% from a year earli...

UK industrial output returns to positive growth

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK industrial production has bounced in April to show a POSITVIVE growth figure of 0.3%MoM – the first rise since February 2008. Meanwhile the manufacturing reading rose 0.2% and, significantly, ...

Monthly economics update call

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Invitation to tomorrow’s monthly economics forecast update call: G3, UK and China You are invited to join a conference call tomorrow (11 June) at 1200 CET (1100 BST) with the research team to lis...

April US trade deficit widens on weak exports

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In April, the US trade deficit widened for the second month in a row as exports fell more than imports. The trade gap increased 2.2%MoM to –US$-29.1bn. The March deficit was revised up to –US$-...

Monthly economics update call - today 11:00 BST

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Invitation to today’s monthly economics forecast update call: G3, UK and China. You are invited to join a conference call today (11 June) at 1200 CET (1100 BST) with the research team to listen t...

Gasoline fuels May surge in US retail sales

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

A stronger than expected retail sales report for May was largely a story about gasoline prices, which rose 3.6%mom. Stripping gasoline from the headline index rise of 0.5%mom, would have left sales...

German exports drop in April

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German exports collapse again. After some relief in March, German exports are again on a downward trend. In seasonally-adjusted terms, German exports dropped by 4.8% MoM in April, from March’s in...

German IP drops in April

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Short-lived Spring fever. After some signs of life in March, German industrial production weakened again in April, dropping by 1.9% MoM. Compared to April 2008, industrial production fell by a dram...

German new orders stable in April

Sun, 07 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German new orders have continued their fragile stabilisation and remained unchanged in April. In March, new orders had increased for the first time in seven months. With Eastern in April and ongoin...

US employment report offers mixed messages

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The May employment report really offers something for everyone. For the macro/equity bulls the payrolls number coming in much better than expected at -345,000 (consensus -520,000) plus with April a...

Non-mfg ISM for May - raising doubts about \"V\"

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The non-manufacturing ISM index for May might be giving some of the first clues that the V-shaped recovery hypothesis is flawed. Expectations for a rise in the index to 45.0 were optimistic, and th...

BoE keeps policy unchanged

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England’s Bank Rate has been left at 0.5% and there as been no expansion of the Asset Purchase Facility following the increase to £125bn in May (“which will take another 2 months t...

ECB keeps rates on hold

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB just decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. This was widely expected. The most interesting part of today’s ECB meeting will come with t...

BoC keeps rates at 0.25%

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

As expected, the Bank of Canada announced today that rates would be kept on hold at 0.25% and reiterated its intention to keep them there until 2Q10. No additional policy measures were referred to ...

ECB rate decision - Over and out from Frankfurt?

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB today decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the refi rate at its all-time low of 1%. According to the ECB, the current level of interest rates is appropriate and inflation expec...

UK services PMI surges suggesting recession may end soon

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK service sector purchasing managers’ index has surprised on the upside yet again to stand at 51.7 in May versus 48.7. Consensus was for a reading of 49.5. This leaves the index at its highe...

EU16 PPI dips further; 1Q09 GDP confirmed at -2.5% QoQ

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The latest Eurozone producer price data will cement expectations that consumer price inflation will turn negative this month. Producer prices in the 16-country region fell 4.6% in the 12 months to ...

Eurozone jobless rate hits near 10-year high

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

April’s sharper than expected increase in Eurozone unemployment shows that the recession is increasingly taking its toll on the labour market. The seasonally adjusted increase of 396,000 in the n...

US pending home sales surge to 7M high

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

April US pending home sales rose 6.7%MoM to a 7-month high. The fourth increase in 5 months means record high affordability continues to draw potential buyers to the market. The pending home sales...

UK PMI data adds to positive macro sentiment

Sun, 31 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index rose above market expectations to stand at 45.4 in May, which is the highest reading for 12 months. The new orders component improved even more...

Canadian GDP -5.4% QoQ annualised

Sun, 31 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Canadian GDP declined 1.4% in the first quarter, an annualised rate of 5.4%. This was lower than market expectations and less that the decline in the US of 5.7%. The largest contribution to the ove...

US May ISM shows further signs of improvement

Sun, 31 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The May manufacturing ISM index for the US rose a little more than expected to 42.8 (consensus was 42.3), up from 40.1. This is fifth consecutive monthly improvement, and is starting to look like a...

German retail sales up in April

Thu, 28 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings and excluding car sales, German retail sales increased by 0.5% MoM in April. March retail sales were revised upwards to a decline of 0.4% MoM from an init...

EU16 inflation at record low; M3 growth at 8-year low

Thu, 28 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Eurozone preliminary CPI inflation for May has come in lower than expected. CPI fell from 0.6% YoY in April to 0.0% YoY (consensus: 0.3%), the lowest level since comparable records began in 1991. A...

German unemployment declines in May

Wed, 27 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

A temporary breather for the German labour market? German unemployment decreased by a non-seasonally adjusted 126,800 in May, lowering the total level of unemployed below 3.5 million. Officially, 3...

EU16 economic sentiment rises to 6-month high

Wed, 27 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

May’s increase in Eurozone economic sentiment will reinforce belief that the worst of the economic downturn may be over. But with economic activity still weakening and downside price pressures co...

Belgium CPI surprises - negative inflation

Wed, 27 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Sue to sharp declines in energy prices, Belgian CPI inflation fell strongly from 0.6% in April to -0.37% in May. Even if some months of negative inflation were expected, this number comes as a surp...

US Durable goods orders rise 1.9%mom in April

Wed, 27 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US durable goods new orders joined the flow of data suggesting a turn in the US economy, or more precisely, a moderation in its decline. Though the 1.9% mom increase registered in April was lifted ...

April US existing home sales post solid gain

Tue, 26 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In April, US existing home sales rose 2.9%MoM, reversing most of the decline in March (-3.4%MoM). While it is clearly too early to rejoice, given the prospect of several more months of dismal payro...

German Inflation comes out lower than expected

Tue, 26 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

According to a first estimate based on the results of six German states, consumer prices declined in May. German headline inflation slowed down to 0.0% YoY, from 0.7 in April. Headline inflation ba...

Germany's growth contraction in Q1 confirmed -3.8%QoQ

Mon, 25 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

German growth contraction in Q1 confirmed Today’s second estimate of the German statistical office confirmed what we already knew: German GDP declined by 3.8% QoQ in the first quarter of 2009, th...

German consumer confidence remains stable - June GfK

Mon, 25 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Despite the worst recession since WWII and the just confirmed record drop of GDP, German consumers are not losing confidence. For the fourth month in a row, the GfK consumer confidence indicator re...

Still no easing in US house prices declines

Mon, 25 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Despite slowly improving supply conditions, with bargain hunters now slowly absorbing the supply overhang, declines in US home prices have failed to show any easing yet. In March, prices in the 20 ...

US May consumer confidence surges

Mon, 25 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US consumer confidence for May has risen to 54.9 (up from an upwardly revised 40.8), the biggest rise since April 2003.

The surge was almost entirely due to the expectations component,...

German Ifo increases in May

Sun, 24 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Fragile stabilisation. German business confidence increased for the second consecutive month. The German Ifo index increased to 84.2 in May, from 83.7 in April. This is the highest level since Dece...

EU16 May PMI data: food for the optimists

Wed, 20 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The preliminary PMI data for May point to a further marked reduction in the downward momentum of the Eurozone economy. The “composite” purchasing managers index (PMI) for the 16-country region,...

UK retail sales bounce, but gov finances add to debt worries

Wed, 20 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

UK retail sales has bounced 0.9% in April, versus the consensus forecast of 0.5%. The main driver was “non-specialised” stores with a 3.5% increase while only “non-store” sales fell out of ...

Canada's CPI falls 0.1% mom in April

Tue, 19 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Canadian inflation came in below consensus forecasts with the MoM rate falling -0.1% after two months of positive increases. The main source of downward pressure came from shelter costs which fell...

UK inflation falls to 2.3% - further sharp falls ahead

Mon, 18 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The April reading for UK CPI has come in a touch lower than the consensus forecast at 2.3% (consensus 2.4%). This is the lowest rate since January 2008 with utility bills a key driver of the lower ...

US housing starts - construction slump drawing to an end?

Mon, 18 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

In April, US housing starts dropped 12.9% to a fresh record low. The report is not as bad as it seems though with the drop fully accounted for by the highly volatile multi-family sector (-46.1%MoM)...

German economy contracted by 3.8% QoQ in first quarter

Thu, 14 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

It did not come as a real surprise but it is still shocking to see. According to the first estimate by the German agency for statistics, GDP declined by 3.8% QoQ (-6.9% YoY). This is the biggest qu...

Technical recession has come to France

Thu, 14 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

French GDP decreased 1.2% (consensus at -1.3%) during the first quarter of the year. After a (substantially) revised GDP growth drop of 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008, this leads the second lar...

EU16 GDP: from very bad to really ugly

Thu, 14 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Markets had braced themselves for a very unpleasant outcome, but the Eurozone first-quarter GDP figures still managed to surprise on the downside. According to a preliminary estimate by Eurostat, r...

US inflation falls to -0.7%YoY in April

Thu, 14 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US April CPI was unchanged (actually down 0.020% to 3 decimal places), helped lower by weak housing (mainly lower utility prices), lower food prices (-0.2%mom), clothing (-0.2%) transport (-0.4%) r...

US contraction set to continue slowing

Thu, 14 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Today’s US activity and sentiment figures have come in pretty much in line with market expectations and therefore offer more evidence to suggest that 2Q09 GDP will record a much less negative gro...

US April Retail Sales - Double dip anyone?

Wed, 13 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The V-shaped 'recoveryists' took a hit today with the publication of US April retail sales. If rising export indications from countries like China have any real substance – and are not ...

EU16 industry data point to dismal GDP reading

Tue, 12 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone industrial production figures for March remove any lingering doubt that first-quarter real GDP, due out on Friday, will show an even steeper decline than the 1.6% reported for 4Q08.

BoE inflation report - CPI still undershooting target

Tue, 12 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England are not buying the “it’s all over” mood that seems to be sweeping over investors and market pundits. The key phrase in their latest inflation report was “It is more like...

March US trade deficit widens on weak exports

Mon, 11 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The US trade deficit has bounced from February’s 9-year low (-US$26.1bn). In March, the trade gap increased 5.5%MoM to –US$27.6bn. Imports (-1%MoM) declined for the 8th month in row, reflecting...

French IP ends Q1 on a negative note

Sun, 10 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

After decreasing a revised -0.9% in February, the French industrial production confirmed the trend by falling another 1.4% MoM in March (far below the consensus of -0.5%). On an annual basis this r...

German exports rise in March

Thu, 07 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Will this be the week of the green shoots for battered German sectors? After yesterday’s positive new orders numbers, trade numbers for March bring another welcome relief for the German economy. ...

German IP stable in March

Thu, 07 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Free fall stopped. German industrial production remained stable in March, after six-months of non-stop decline. Compared to March 2008, industrial production still fell by a dramatic 20%. Looking a...

Canada's posts an unexpected +36K rise in employment

Thu, 07 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

After five consecutive months of decline, Canada’s labour market posted an employment rise of 36K, the majority of which was an increase in self-employment. This took markets by surprise consider...

US payrolls fall 539K in April, unemployment rate 8.9%

Thu, 07 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

US non-farm payrolls fell 539K in April, against expectations for a -600K fall, though there were a net -66K revisions to the previous 2 months of data, so once that is taken into account, the head...

German new orders are up in March

Wed, 06 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Another green shoot? German new orders have stopped their free fall and recorded the first increase since August last year and the strongest increase since October 2007. New factory orders increase...

BoE leaves rates at 0.5%, increases credit easing

Wed, 06 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Bank of England has left its Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and voted to increase its Asset Purchase Programme by £50billion to £125 billion. So far they have spent just over £50 billion, main...

ECB cuts rates to 1%

Wed, 06 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The ECB decided to cut interest rates by another 25bp, bringing the refi rate to a new all-time low of 1%. Starting at 14.30 CET, ECB president Trichet will have to address two pressing issue: Firs...

ECB's uncovered boldness

Wed, 06 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

As widely expected, the ECB today decided to cut interest rates by another 25bp, bringing the refi rate to a new all-time low of 1%. At the same time, the corridor for the standing facilities was n...

UK services PMI adds to growing optimism

Tue, 05 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

More good news from the UK following on from the bounce in Nationwide consumer confidence overnight. The Service sector purchasing managers’ index has risen much more than expected to 48.7 in Apr...

EU16 retail sales disappoint yet again

Tue, 05 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The Eurozone retail sales figures for March serve as a sharp reminder that the double whammy of rising unemployment and falling household wealth continues to overshadow the positive effect on consu...

EU16 PPI inflation slips further into negative territory

Mon, 04 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Disinflationary pressures are mounting in the Eurozone. Producer prices in the 16-country region fell 3.1% (consensus: 2.9%) in the 12 months to March, after falling a revised 1.7% in February. Thi...

Bernanke remains optimistic

Mon, 04 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has provided a mildly upbeat assessment on the US economic prospects in his testimony to the Joint Economic Committee. He acknowledges that while the economy is weak there...

EU16 manufacturing PMI rises to six-month high

Sun, 03 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

April’s sharp increase in the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) confirms that the downward momentum in Eurozone industry has slowed considerably. But with the index remaining at a fai...

US pending home sales rise to 3M high

Sun, 03 May 2009 23:00:00 +0000

March US pending home sales rose 3%MoM to a 3-month high. The first back-to-back monthly increase since April 2008 supports the notion that very cheap foreclosed homes and record-low mortgage rates...

UK macro data continues its improvement

Thu, 30 Apr 2009 23:00:00 +0000

The UK macro data has again provided some positive surprises. The manufacturing PMI has risen to 42.9 from 39.5, which is the second consecutive large rise and has come in well above the 40.0 conse...